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Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
62,104 attended
FINAL+6SF
SF
2-1
1812
LV
1-2
NFL · Drive chart
21 drives · 10 FG · 1 INT · 1 Downs · 1 Miss · 7 PuntFGLV12p · 46y PuntSF3p · 2y FGLV10p · 45y PuntSF5p · 18y INTLV2p · 6y FGSF5p · 17y PuntLV3p · -11y PuntSF3p · 8y PuntLV6p · 12y FGSF11p · 78y FGLV6p · 45y PuntSF3p · 5y MissLV15p · 51y FGSF10p · 26y PuntLV5p · 16y FGSF10p · 40y FGLV5p · 39y FGSF12p · 50y DownsLV4p · 8y FGSF4p · 2y EndLV2p · 18y
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · LV favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Qb Elo
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Dvoa Proxy
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Data via ESPN · nflverse · Next Gen Stats (via nflverse)
