OKC
64-18
PHX
45-37
Recap · NBA
klahoma City Thunder went into Phoenix Suns and beat them, 131–122.
PHX +11.5 cashed (OKC won by 9). Total cleared the 215.5 OVER by 37.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
OKC · top performer
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
G · #2
31
Pts
2
Reb
8
Ast
PHX · top performer
Dillon Brooks
F · #3
23
Pts
4
Reb
3
Ast
NBA · Oklahoma City Thunder at Phoenix Suns · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 29 | 18 | 5-7 | — | 8-9 | +13 | 12 | 3 | |
| 34 | 24 | 9-16 | 2-5 | 4-4 | +21 | 12 | 3 | |
| 38 | 31 | 10-17 | 2-4 | 9-11 | -7 | 2 | 8 | |
| 27 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 1-2 | +5 | 1 | 0 | |
| 34 | 22 | 7-16 | 4-6 | 4-4 | +27 | 4 | 6 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 10 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-3 | — | -8 | 0 | 1 | |
| 25 | 14 | 5-7 | 4-6 | — | +5 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 0 | — | — | — | -2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 7 | 6 | 2-5 | 2-5 | — | -10 | 0 | 0 | |
| 11 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | +6 | 0 | 2 | |
| 22 | 10 | 4-7 | 2-3 | — | -1 | 4 | 4 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | -2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | — | — | — | -2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 131 | 44-82 | 17-34 | 26-30 | 39 | 28 | ||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 42 | 23 | 10-19 | 2-4 | 1-1 | +1 | 4 | 3 | |
| 34 | 8 | 4-5 | — | — | -1 | 8 | 4 | |
| 41 | 24 | 8-16 | 1-6 | 7-9 | -16 | 0 | 6 | |
| 29 | 20 | 7-12 | 6-11 | 0-1 | -27 | 2 | 2 | |
| 39 | 23 | 10-25 | 1-10 | 2-3 | -15 | 6 | 4 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 18 | 8 | 3-3 | 2-2 | — | -3 | 7 | 2 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | +2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 9 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | — | +2 | 1 | 0 | |
| 5 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | -7 | 2 | 0 | |
| 21 | 12 | 4-5 | 2-3 | 2-2 | +15 | 3 | 3 | |
| 1 | 0 | — | — | — | +2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | +2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 122 | 48-90 | 14-39 | 12-16 | 33 | 24 | ||
| DNP: H. Highsmith | ||||||||
DNP: H. Highsmith
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
54
FG %
53
28
Ast
24
Playoff series
OKC wins series 4-0
PHX84@OKC119PHX107@OKC120OKC121@PHX109OKC131@PHX122todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
OKC -11.5
Between 10 and —
Total
215.5
Defensive · -10.5 vs avg
Moneyline
OKC-53584%PHX+40020%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 109 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
11.5
0.0 since open
Total
215.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 7pp · 2nd Quarter · 5:33
OKCS. Gilgeous-Alexander
GGame leader · 38 min30-point game
31 PTS · 2 REB · 8 AST
PHXD. Brooks
FGame leader · 42 min30+ minutes, 0 turnovers
23 PTS · 4 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
OKC beat PHX 131-122. S. Gilgeous-Alexander paced them with 31 PTS, 2 REB, 8 AST.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
PHX vs OKC
Starters vs bench
production by unitOKCstarters 73% of ptsStarters(5)
96 PTS · 31 REB · 20 AST
GS 83
Bench(8)
35 PTS · 8 REB · 8 AST
GS 27
PHXstarters 80% of ptsStarters(5)
98 PTS · 20 REB · 19 AST
GS 72
Bench(7)
24 PTS · 13 REB · 5 AST
GS 28
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactJalen Green · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Grayson Allen assists)
Collin Gillespie · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Green assists)
Devin Booker · bad pass turnover (Chet Holmgren steals)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 37 | 38 | 31 | 25 | 131 |
| PHX | 33 | 34 | 31 | 24 | 122 |
Period scoring
OKC won 3 · PHX won 0
Q1
Caruso 11
Gillespie 11
Q2
Gilgeous-Alexander 12
Green 9
Q3
Holmgren 10
Booker 12
Q4
Mitchell 7
Booker 10
Shooting comparison
54%
44-82
FG
53%
48-90
50%
17-34
3PT
36%
14-39
87%
26-30
FT
75%
12-16
Play-by-play · 475 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
OKC 131·PHX 122
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
OKC 131·PHX 122
- Q4·0.0
Suns offensive team rebound
OKC 131·PHX 122
- Q4·0.0
Ryan Dunn misses 32-foot three point pullup jump shot
OKC 131·PHX 122
- Q4·3.3
Isaiah Joe enters the game for Luguentz Dort
·
OKC 131·PHX 122
- Q4·3.3
shot clock turnover
OKC 131·PHX 122
- Q4·27.4
Jamaree Bouyea makes driving layup
OKC 131·PHX 122
- Q4·38.9
Khaman Maluach defensive rebound
OKC 131·PHX 120
- Q4·39.8
Luguentz Dort misses free throw 2 of 2
OKC 131·PHX 120
- Q4·39.8
Kenrich Williams enters the game for Cason Wallace
· ·
OKC 131·PHX 120
- Q4·39.8
Jared McCain enters the game for Chet Holmgren
·
OKC 131·PHX 120
- Q4·39.8
Nikola Topic enters the game for Alex Caruso
·
OKC 131·PHX 120
- Q4·39.8
Aaron Wiggins enters the game for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
·
OKC 131·PHX 120
- Q4·39.8
Ryan Dunn enters the game for Royce O'Neale
·
OKC 131·PHX 120
- Q4·39.8
Jamaree Bouyea enters the game for Collin Gillespie
·
OKC 131·PHX 120
- Q4·39.8
Amir Coffey enters the game for Jalen Green
·
OKC 131·PHX 120
- Q4·39.8
Khaman Maluach enters the game for Dillon Brooks
·
OKC 131·PHX 120
- Q4·39.8
Rasheer Fleming enters the game for Devin Booker
·
OKC 131·PHX 120
- Q4·39.8
Luguentz Dort makes free throw 1 of 2
OKC 131·PHX 120
- Q4·39.8
Devin Booker personal foul
OKC 130·PHX 120
- Q4·39.8
Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
OKC 130·PHX 120
- Q4·43.0
Jalen Green misses 23-foot three point step back jumpshot
OKC 130·PHX 120
- Q4·45.7
Royce O'Neale enters the game for Oso Ighodaro
·
OKC 130·PHX 120
- Q4·45.7
Cason Wallace enters the game for Ajay Mitchell
·
OKC 130·PHX 120
- Q4·45.7
Suns Full timeout
OKC 130·PHX 120
- Q4·45.7
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2
OKC 130·PHX 120
- Q4·45.7
Chet Holmgren enters the game for Isaiah Hartenstein
·
OKC 129·PHX 120
- Q4·45.7
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2
OKC 129·PHX 120
- Q4·45.7
Oso Ighodaro personal foul
OKC 128·PHX 120
−0.5pp
- Q4·51.5
Devin Booker makes 26-foot three pointer (Dillon Brooks assists)
·
OKC 128·PHX 120
+0.5pp
Team stats
OKC
Away
Stat
PHX
Home
44-82
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
48-90
54
FG %
53
17-34
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
14-39
26-30
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
12-16
28
Assists
24
16
Turnovers
12
Betting line
OKC -11.5·O/U 215.5·OKC -535/PHX +400
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · GUSG%32.899
Chet HolmgrenOKC · CCONT10.799
Jalen GreenPHX · GUSG%31.798
Devin BookerPHX · GUSG%31.397
Ajay MitchellOKC · GDRIVES14.796
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
56.6%
ensemble · PHX favored
Elo Static
60.6%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
60.8%
P(PHX win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
60.7%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.08 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+400
Close price
+400
Open no-vig
19.2%
Close no-vig
19.2%
Line barely moved · Graded: miss
Player projections
PHX vs OKC.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
170
projections · 155 high confidence
Points
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC27.7± 6.8high
- Devin BookerPHX24.6± 6.2high
- Jalen GreenPHX21.0± 10.3high
Rebounds
- Isaiah HartensteinOKC8.6± 3.9high
- Chet HolmgrenOKC8.0± 3.0high
- Mark WilliamsPHX7.2± 2.3high
Assists
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC7.6± 3.1high
- Devin BookerPHX5.8± 2.3high
- Jalen WilliamsOKC4.8± 2.9high
Blocks
- Chet HolmgrenOKC1.4± 0.9high
- Mark WilliamsPHX1.0± 1.3high
- Branden CarlsonOKC0.9± 1.6high
Steals
- Cason WallaceOKC2.0± 1.0high
- Jordan GoodwinPHX1.8± 2.1high
- Alex CarusoOKC1.5± 1.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
OKC
league avg
PHX
55.9%
Effective FG%
54.4
53.7%
48.2%
FG%
47.0
45.5%
118.5
PPG
114.9
112.2
25.8
Assists / G
25.0
24.5
11.9
Turnovers / G
14.0
13.6