Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at DEN?

The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+12DEN

MIN

49-33

113125

DEN

54-28

NBAMon, Apr 27FinalSeriesDEN wins series 3-1VegasDEN -11.5

MIN · top performer

Julius Randle

F · #30

21.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DEN · top performer

Nikola Jokic

C · #15

30.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIN ↔ DEN

Biggest swing: 6pp · 2nd Quarter · 4:04

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. RandleF · #30	32	27	8-15	2-4	9-11	-16	9	6
J. McDanielsF · #3	27	13	5-11	0-3	3-5	-25	3	1
R. GobertC · #27	29	3	1-2	—	1-1	-25	7	2
M. ConleyG · #10	17	4	2-4	—	—	-7	1	4
A. DosunmuG · #13	38	18	7-14	3-5	1-1	-17	3	4
Bench
J. InglesF · #7	3	0	—	—	—	+6	0	0
K. AndersonF · #12	15	4	2-4	—	—	+3	3	6
J. PhillipsF · #4	3	0	—	—	—	+6	0	0
J. BeringerF · #19	3	2	—	—	2-2	+6	1	0
N. ReidC · #11	24	12	5-11	2-5	—	+3	8	1
J. ClarkG · #22	11	0	0-1	—	—	+13	1	1
T. Shannon Jr.G · #1	14	15	6-10	2-4	1-1	-4	1	0
B. HylandG · #8	23	15	5-9	3-7	2-2	-3	1	1
Team		113	41-81	12-28	19-23		38	26
DNP: Z. Pullin

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
C. JohnsonF · #23	36	18	8-13	2-7	—	+24	6	5
S. JonesF · #21	37	20	7-9	4-5	2-2	+13	3	1
N. JokicC · #15	38	27	9-15	1-4	8-10	+18	12	16
J. MurrayG · #27	39	24	9-23	2-6	4-4	+6	4	7
C. BraunG · #0	31	9	3-5	1-2	2-2	+18	2	3
Bench
J. ValanciunasC · #17	10	9	4-4	—	1-2	-6	2	1
T. Hardaway Jr.G · #10	12	8	3-5	1-3	1-1	-1	0	0
T. JonesG · #5	14	3	1-2	—	1-2	-7	0	2
B. BrownG · #11	20	7	3-7	0-2	1-2	0	0	0
J. StrawtherG · #3	4	0	—	—	—	-5	0	0
Team		125	47-83	11-29	20-25		29	35
DNP: Z. Nnaji, D. Holmes II, J. Pickett

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

DEN

Home

41-81

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

47-83

FG %

12-28

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-29

19-23

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

20-25

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

MIN leads series 3-2

Apr 18

MIN105@

DEN116

Apr 21

MIN119@

DEN114

Apr 24

DEN96@

MIN113

Apr 26

DEN96@

MIN112

Apr 28

MIN113@

DEN125today

May 1

DEN98@

MIN110

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DEN -11.5

Between 10 and —

Total

226.5

Standard · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIN+39020%

DEN-52084%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DEN -11.5↗SpreadBet DEN -11.5↗

Line movement · 109 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

11.5

0.0 since open

Total

226.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DEN beat MIN 125-113. N. Jokic stuffed the line with 27 PTS, 12 REB, and 16 AST. DEN outscored the other side 37-24 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DEN vs MIN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MINstarters 58% of pts

Starters(5)

65 PTS · 23 REB · 17 AST

GS 46

Bench(8)

48 PTS · 15 REB · 9 AST

GS 29

DENstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

98 PTS · 27 REB · 32 AST

GS 98

Bench(5)

27 PTS · 2 REB · 3 AST

GS 14

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DEN2nd Quarter · 4:04 · 42-51

+6pp→ 84% WP

Bruce Brown · out of bounds lost ball turnover

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIN	29	22	24	38	113
DEN	34	26	37	28	125

Period scoring

MIN won 1 · DEN won 3

Randle 8

Jokic 8

Randle 6

Valanciunas 6

Dosunmu 5

Jones 11

Randle 10

Jokic 9

MIN

DEN

Shooting comparison

MIN

DEN

51%

41-81

57%

47-83

43%

12-28

3PT

38%

11-29

83%

19-23

80%

20-25

Play-by-play · 480 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 113·DEN 125
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 113·DEN 125
Q4·11.2
Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
MIN 113·DEN 125
Q4·14.8
Terrence Shannon Jr. misses two point shot
MIN 113·DEN 125
Q4·20.3
Julian Strawther enters the game for Jamal Murray
·
MIN 113·DEN 125
Q4·20.3
Nikola Jokic lost ball turnover (Joan Beringer steals)
·
MIN 113·DEN 125
Q4·20.3
Joan Beringer vs. Nikola Jokic (Terrence Shannon Jr. gains possession)
· ·
MIN 113·DEN 125
Q4·44.3
Terrence Shannon Jr. makes 18-foot step back jumpshot
MIN 113·DEN 125
Q4·54.0
Nikola Jokic makes 8-foot floating jump shot (Cameron Johnson assists)
·
MIN 111·DEN 125
Q4·1:15
Joan Beringer lost ball turnover (Christian Braun steals)
·
MIN 111·DEN 123
Q4·1:31
Terrence Shannon Jr. defensive rebound
MIN 111·DEN 123
Q4·1:34
Cameron Johnson misses 27-foot three point jumper
MIN 111·DEN 123
Q4·1:45
Joan Beringer makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 111·DEN 123
Q4·1:45
Joan Beringer makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 110·DEN 123
Q4·1:45
Nikola Jokic shooting foul
MIN 109·DEN 123
Q4·1:53
Cameron Johnson makes driving dunk (Nikola Jokic assists)
·
MIN 109·DEN 123
Q4·2:04
Terrence Shannon Jr. makes free throw 1 of 1
MIN 109·DEN 121
Q4·2:04
Christian Braun shooting foul
MIN 108·DEN 121
Q4·2:04
Terrence Shannon Jr. makes 10-foot running pullup jump shot
MIN 108·DEN 121
Q4·2:07
Joan Beringer defensive rebound
MIN 106·DEN 121
Q4·2:09
Jamal Murray misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
MIN 106·DEN 121
Q4·2:38
Terrence Shannon Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Clark assists)
·
MIN 106·DEN 121
Q4·2:55
Julian Phillips enters the game for Rudy Gobert
·
MIN 103·DEN 121
Q4·2:55
Jaylen Clark enters the game for Julius Randle
·
MIN 103·DEN 121
Q4·2:55
Joe Ingles enters the game for Ayo Dosunmu
·
MIN 103·DEN 121
Q4·2:55
Joan Beringer enters the game for Bones Hyland
·
MIN 103·DEN 121
Q4·2:55
Terrence Shannon Jr. enters the game for Jaden McDaniels
·
MIN 103·DEN 121
Q4·2:55
Timberwolves Full timeout
MIN 103·DEN 121
Q4·3:03
Nikola Jokic makes layup (Cameron Johnson assists)
·
MIN 103·DEN 121
Q4·3:09
Jamal Murray offensive rebound
MIN 103·DEN 119

Betting line

DEN -11.5·O/U 226.5·MIN +390/DEN -520

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

enver Nuggets held off Minnesota Timberwolves, 125–113.

DEN -11.5 cashed (won by 12). Total cleared the 226.5 OVER by 11.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Nikola JokicDEN · C
TOUCHES12399+
Rudy GobertMIN · C
CONT1299+
Jamal MurrayDEN · G
TOUCHES82.297
Julius RandleMIN · F
DRIVES1293
Jonas ValanciunasDEN · C
USG%26.790

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.9%

ensemble · DEN favored

Elo Static
60.6%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
61.8%
P(DEN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
63.6%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.23 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+390

Close price

+390

Open no-vig

19.6%

Close no-vig

19.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at DEN?: The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

DEN vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

180

projections · 155 high confidence

Points

Nikola JokicDEN
26.6± 7.0high
Jamal MurrayDEN
24.2± 8.1high
Anthony EdwardsMIN
23.7± 9.4high

Rebounds

Nikola JokicDEN
12.5± 3.1high
Rudy GobertMIN
10.1± 3.9high
Julius RandleMIN
7.2± 2.1high

Assists

Nikola JokicDEN
9.7± 4.5high
Jamal MurrayDEN
6.4± 1.9high
Ayo DosunmuMIN
3.9± 3.1high

Blocks

Rudy GobertMIN
1.4± 1.2high
Joan BeringerMIN
1.1± 2.1high
Nikola JokicDEN
1.0± 1.0high

Steals

Bruce BrownDEN
1.3± 1.5high
Nikola JokicDEN
1.3± 1.7high
Donte DiVincenzoMIN
1.2± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIN

league avg

DEN

55.1%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

57.2%

47.6%

FG%

47.0

▶

49.2%

116.8

PPG

114.9

▶

121.1

25.7

Assists / G

25.0

▶

28.7

14.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR