NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6ORL

DET

60-22

8894

ORL

45-37

NBAMon, Apr 27FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasDET -3.5

Recap · NBA

rlando Magic held off Detroit Pistons, 94–88.

ORL +3.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 214.5 by 32.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

Tobias Harris

F · #12

12.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ORL · top performer

Franz Wagner

F · #22

18.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. HarrisF · #12	35	20	8-17	0-5	4-5	-10	6	0
D. RobinsonF · #55	29	7	2-8	1-6	2-2	-18	1	0
J. DurenC · #0	31	12	5-8	—	2-2	-11	8	3
C. CunninghamG · #2	39	25	7-23	3-11	8-10	-7	9	6
A. ThompsonG · #9	32	6	2-8	—	2-4	-16	9	1
Bench
I. StewartF · #28	17	8	3-4	1-1	1-3	+5	3	1
J. GreenG · #31	17	5	2-4	1-3	—	+8	5	0
C. LeVertG · #8	25	2	1-4	0-1	—	+11	5	3
K. HuerterG · #27	3	0	—	—	—	+6	1	0
D. JenkinsG · #24	13	3	1-6	0-3	1-2	+2	2	4
Team		88	31-82	6-30	20-28		49	18
DNP: P. Reed, T. Smith, R. Holland II, M. Sasser, C. Lanier

DNP: P. Reed, T. Smith, R. Holland II, M. Sasser, C. Lanier

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. BancheroF · #5	40	18	4-18	0-4	10-13	+8	8	4
F. WagnerF · #22	24	19	7-15	1-3	4-4	+17	5	3
W. Carter Jr.C · #34	35	12	3-8	1-2	5-8	+17	11	4
D. BaneG · #3	37	22	7-18	5-10	3-4	+15	5	1
J. SuggsG · #4	35	5	1-13	1-11	2-2	+17	2	2
Bench
J. CainF · #8	24	8	4-8	0-2	—	-9	9	0
T. da SilvaF · #23	14	6	2-4	1-3	1-2	-5	4	1
G. BitadzeC · #35	13	2	1-4	—	0-1	-11	6	0
A. BlackG · #0	18	2	1-4	—	—	-19	2	0
Team		94	30-92	9-35	25-34		52	15
DNP: M. Wagner, N. Penda, J. Carter, J. Howard, J. Richardson

DNP: M. Wagner, N. Penda, J. Carter, J. Howard, J. Richardson

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Playoff series

ORL leads series 3-1

Apr 19

ORL112@

DET101

Apr 22

ORL83@

DET98

Apr 25

DET105@

ORL113

Apr 28

DET88@

ORL94today

Apr 29

ORL109@

DET116

May 1

DET93@

ORL79

May 3

ORL94@

DET116

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

214.5

Defensive · -11.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DET-16662%

ORL+14042%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -3.5↗SpreadBet DET -3.5↗

Line movement · 100 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

214.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDET ↔ ORL

Biggest swing: 26pp · 3rd Quarter · 0.9

DET

T. Harris

Game leader · 35 min

20 PTS · 6 REB · 0 AST

ORL

F. Wagner

Game leader · 24 min

19 PTS · 5 REB · 3 AST

How it ended

ORL beat DET 94-88. F. Wagner led with 19 PTS, 5 REB, 3 AST. Cade Cunningham's play in the 3rd quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (26pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ORL vs DET

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DETstarters 80% of pts

Starters(5)

70 PTS · 33 REB · 10 AST

GS 38

Bench(5)

18 PTS · 16 REB · 8 AST

GS 20

ORLstarters 81% of pts

Starters(5)

76 PTS · 31 REB · 14 AST

GS 49

Bench(4)

18 PTS · 21 REB · 1 AST

GS 14

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DET4th Quarter · 4:22 · 85-87

+17pp→ 43% WP

shot clock turnover

DET4th Quarter · 3:48 · 85-87

+20pp→ 42% WP

Wendell Carter Jr. · lost ball turnover (Tobias Harris steals)

DET3rd Quarter · 0.9 · 69-75

+26pp→ 29% WP

Cade Cunningham · blocks Goga Bitadze's two point shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DET	27	25	17	19	88
ORL	26	28	21	19	94

Period scoring

DET won 1 · ORL won 2

Cunningham 10

Wagner 8

Robinson 7

Wagner 9

Cunningham 7

Bane 7

Harris 8

Full 17

DET

ORL

Shooting comparison

DET

ORL

38%

31-82

33%

30-92

20%

6-30

3PT

26%

9-35

71%

20-28

74%

25-34

Play-by-play · 545 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DET 88·ORL 94
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DET 88·ORL 94
Q4·3.4
Isaiah Stewart makes tip shot
DET 88·ORL 94
Q4·4.5
Isaiah Stewart offensive rebound
DET 86·ORL 94
Q4·6.0
Cade Cunningham misses running pullup jump shot
DET 86·ORL 94
Q4·10.9
Cade Cunningham defensive rebound
DET 86·ORL 94
Q4·11.5
Wendell Carter Jr. misses free throw 2 of 2
·
DET 86·ORL 94
Q4·11.5
Magic offensive team rebound
DET 86·ORL 94
Q4·11.5
Wendell Carter Jr. misses free throw 1 of 2
·
DET 86·ORL 94
Q4·11.5
Cade Cunningham personal take foul
DET 86·ORL 94
Q4·13.5
Wendell Carter Jr. defensive rebound
·
DET 86·ORL 94
Q4·15.6
Duncan Robinson misses 32-foot three point pullup jump shot
DET 86·ORL 94
+0.6pp
Q4·21.5
Jalen Suggs makes free throw 2 of 2
DET 86·ORL 94
−0.6pp
Q4·21.5
Jalen Suggs makes free throw 1 of 2
DET 86·ORL 93
Q4·21.5
Isaiah Stewart loose ball foul
DET 86·ORL 92
+1pp
Q4·21.5
Magic defensive team rebound
DET 86·ORL 92
+0.5pp
Q4·21.5
Caris LeVert misses 24-foot three point jumper
DET 86·ORL 92
+2pp
Q4·24.4
Duncan Robinson enters the game for Ausar Thompson
·
DET 86·ORL 92
Q4·24.4
Pistons Full timeout
DET 86·ORL 92
Q4·24.4
Pistons offensive team rebound
DET 86·ORL 92
−2pp
Q4·27.5
Ausar Thompson misses free throw 2 of 2
DET 86·ORL 92
+2pp
Q4·27.5
Pistons offensive team rebound
DET 86·ORL 92
+3pp
Q4·27.5
Ausar Thompson misses free throw 1 of 2
DET 86·ORL 92
+4pp
Q4·27.5
Jalen Suggs personal foulBIG MOMENT
DET 86·ORL 92
−8pp
Q4·27.7
Desmond Bane bad pass turnover (Ausar Thompson steals)
·
DET 86·ORL 92
−2pp
Q4·33.9
Isaiah Stewart enters the game for Jalen Duren
·
DET 86·ORL 92
Q4·33.9
Magic Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
DET 86·ORL 92
+23pp
Q4·36.5
Paolo Banchero defensive rebound
DET 86·ORL 92
+0.9pp
Q4·38.4
Cade Cunningham misses running pullup jump shot
DET 86·ORL 92
+3pp
Q4·44.0
Cade Cunningham defensive rebound
DET 86·ORL 92
−0.6pp

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

ORL

Home

31-82

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

30-92

FG %

6-30

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-35

20-28

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

25-34

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

DET -3.5·O/U 214.5·DET -166/ORL +140

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Cade CunninghamDET · G
DRIVES1999+
Paolo BancheroORL · F
DRIVES18.699
Goga BitadzeORL · C
TS%70.099
Franz WagnerORL · F
DEFL4.398
Jalen DurenDET · C
TS%68.898

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.7%

ensemble · ORL favored

Elo Static
60.6%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
58.5%
P(ORL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
61.5%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.26 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+140

Close price

+140

Open no-vig

40.0%

Close no-vig

40.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

ORL vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

170

projections · 150 high confidence

Points

Cade CunninghamDET
26.1± 9.6high
Paolo BancheroORL
23.9± 9.4high
Desmond BaneORL
18.8± 7.4high

Rebounds

Jalen DurenDET
9.1± 3.9high
Paolo BancheroORL
8.3± 2.3high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
7.4± 4.7high

Assists

Cade CunninghamDET
8.2± 2.8high
Paolo BancheroORL
6.0± 2.3high
Jalen SuggsORL
4.6± 1.5high

Blocks

Ausar ThompsonDET
1.5± 1.3high
Goga BitadzeORL
1.4± 1.2high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
1.3± 0.7high

Steals

Ausar ThompsonDET
2.0± 1.8high
Jalen SuggsORL
1.8± 1.5high
Anthony BlackORL
1.5± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DET

league avg

ORL

54.2%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.5%

48.0%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.9%

115.9

PPG

◀

114.9

114.2

27.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

26.0

14.3

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR