Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NY at SA?

The model favors NY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4NY

53-29

9490

62-20

NBASat, Jun 13FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasSA -5.5

NY · top performer

Jalen Brunson

G · #11

32.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SA · top performer

Dylan Harper

G · #2

18.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNY ↔ SA

Biggest swing: 18pp · 4th Quarter · 8.5

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. AnunobyF · #8	33	11	3-11	1-5	4-6	+2	8	0
K. TownsC · #32	23	2	1-7	0-2	—	-4	10	1
J. HartG · #3	39	13	4-11	3-6	2-3	+15	11	2
M. BridgesG · #25	39	14	5-10	3-7	1-2	+6	2	4
J. BrunsonG · #11	41	45	14-27	4-7	13-15	+10	3	3
Bench
J. SochanF · #20	0	0	—	—	—	+1	0	0
M. RobinsonC · #23	20	2	1-2	—	0-2	+5	10	2
A. HukportiC · #55	2	0	—	—	—	+4	1	1
J. ClarksonG · #00	6	2	1-5	0-2	—	+3	1	0
L. ShametG · #44	13	5	2-7	1-4	—	-14	1	0
J. AlvaradoG · #5	11	0	0-5	0-2	—	-11	1	0
M. McBrideG · #2	13	0	0-2	0-2	—	+3	0	1
Team		94	31-87	12-37	20-28		48	14
DNP: P. Dadiet, M. Diawara, T. Kolek

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #30	31	14	5-9	4-8	—	-10	7	1
V. WembanyamaF · #1	38	19	7-19	1-6	4-5	-3	14	2
D. FoxG · #4	37	7	3-15	1-8	—	+1	0	5
D. VassellG · #24	39	12	5-8	2-5	—	-11	7	2
S. CastleG · #5	32	6	1-10	0-3	4-6	-1	5	4
Bench
K. JohnsonF · #3	16	7	2-5	2-3	1-2	+17	5	0
C. BryantF · #11	6	0	—	—	—	+2	2	0
L. KornetC · #7	10	0	0-1	—	—	-3	2	0
D. HarperG · #2	31	25	10-19	2-4	3-6	-12	5	4
Team		90	33-86	12-37	12-19		47	18
DNP: H. Barnes, K. Olynyk, L. Waters III, B. Biyombo, M. Plumlee, J. McLaughlin

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

Home

31-87

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

33-86

FG %

12-37

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-37

20-28

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

12-19

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

NY wins series 4-1

Jun 4

NY105@

SA95

Jun 6

NY105@

SA104

Jun 9

SA115@

NY111

Jun 11

SA106@

NY107

Jun 14

NY94@

SA90today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

216.5

Defensive · -9.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NY+16038%

SA-19266%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -5.5↗SpreadBet SA -5.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

216.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NY beat SA 94-90. J. Brunson led the way with 45 points and 3 assists. NY outscored the other side 29-18 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SA vs NY

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NYstarters 90% of pts

Starters(5)

85 PTS · 34 REB · 10 AST

GS 60

Bench(7)

9 PTS · 14 REB · 4 AST

GS 4

SAstarters 64% of pts

Starters(5)

58 PTS · 33 REB · 14 AST

GS 41

Bench(4)

32 PTS · 14 REB · 4 AST

GS 22

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SA4th Quarter · 1:53 · 88-85

+14pp→ 43% WP

Karl-Anthony Towns · shooting foul

SA4th Quarter · 2:36 · 86-85

+17pp→ 45% WP

Josh Hart · misses two point shot

SA4th Quarter · 8.5 · 93-90

+18pp→ 33% WP

Landry Shamet · personal take foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NY	13	24	28	29	94
SA	23	19	30	18	90

Period scoring

NY won 2 · SA won 2

Brunson 8

Wembanyama 11

Bridges 8

Castle 13

Brunson 14

Harper 10

Brunson 15

Vassell 11

Shooting comparison

36%

31-87

38%

33-86

32%

12-37

3PT

32%

12-37

71%

20-28

63%

12-19

Play-by-play · 536 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 94·SA 90
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 94·SA 90
−0.7pp
Q4·2.0
OG Anunoby defensive rebound
NY 94·SA 90
Q4·2.0
Victor Wembanyama misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
NY 94·SA 90
−6pp
Q4·7.7
OG Anunoby makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 94·SA 90
+1pp
Q4·7.7
Landry Shamet enters the game for Ariel Hukporti
·
NY 93·SA 90
Q4·7.7
De'Aaron Fox enters the game for Luke Kornet
·
NY 93·SA 90
Q4·7.7
Julian Champagnie enters the game for Stephon Castle
·
NY 93·SA 90
Q4·7.7
Knicks offensive team rebound
NY 93·SA 90
+2pp
Q4·7.7
OG Anunoby misses free throw 1 of 2
NY 93·SA 90
+2pp
Q4·7.7
Dylan Harper personal take foulBIG MOMENT
NY 93·SA 90
−12pp
Q4·8.5
OG Anunoby defensive rebound
NY 93·SA 90
Q4·8.5
Dylan Harper misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
NY 93·SA 90
+7pp
Q4·8.5
Spurs offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
NY 93·SA 90
+7pp
Q4·8.5
Ariel Hukporti enters the game for Landry Shamet
·
NY 93·SA 90
Q4·8.5
Luke Kornet enters the game for De'Aaron FoxBIG MOMENT
·
NY 93·SA 90
−16pp
Q4·8.5
Dylan Harper misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
NY 93·SA 90
−10pp
Q4·8.5
Landry Shamet personal take foulBIG MOMENT
NY 93·SA 90
+18pp
Q4·8.8
De'Aaron Fox enters the game for Luke Kornet
·
NY 93·SA 90
Q4·8.8
Jeremy Sochan enters the game for Mitchell Robinson
·
NY 93·SA 90
Q4·8.8
Spurs Full timeout
NY 93·SA 90
Q4·8.8
Mikal Bridges makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 93·SA 90
+0.5pp
Q4·8.8
Mitchell Robinson enters the game for Jalen Brunson
·
NY 92·SA 90
Q4·8.8
Luke Kornet enters the game for De'Aaron Fox
·
NY 92·SA 90
Q4·8.8
Knicks offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
NY 92·SA 90
+5pp
Q4·8.8
Mikal Bridges misses free throw 1 of 2
NY 92·SA 90
+3pp
Q4·8.8
Dylan Harper personal foulBIG MOMENT
NY 92·SA 90
−13pp
Q4·16.3
Jalen Brunson enters the game for Mitchell Robinson
·
NY 92·SA 90
Q4·16.3
Knicks Full timeout
NY 92·SA 90
Q4·16.3
Stephon Castle makes tip in dunkBIG MOMENT
NY 92·SA 90
+7pp

Betting line

SA -5.5·O/U 216.5·NY +160/SA -192

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ew York Knicks went into San Antonio Spurs and beat them, 94–90. Decided by 4.

NY +5.5 cashed (SA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 216.5 by 32.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
Jalen BrunsonNY · G
TOUCHES89.699
Josh HartNY · G
DEFL4.198
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898
Luke KornetSA · C
TS%68.797

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

25.9%

ensemble · NY favored

Elo Static
27.8%
P(SA win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
25.7%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
24.1%
P(SA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.51 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.60

CLV pp

Open price

+164

Close price

+160

Open no-vig

36.3%

Close no-vig

36.9%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NY at SA?: The model favors NY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+56.4pp

best edge · NY · DraftKings

★ best

+500DraftKings

edge +56.4pp · implied 15.8%

no live price

Book	NY	SA	Best edge
DraftKings	+500★	-810	+56.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

SA vs NY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

145

projections · 125 high confidence

Points

Jalen BrunsonNY
27.4± 9.6high
OG AnunobyNY
18.6± 7.0high
Tobias HarrisSA
16.3± 7.8high

Rebounds

Karl-Anthony TownsNY
10.8± 3.1high
Josh HartNY
8.4± 3.0high
Tobias HarrisSA
6.4± 1.8high

Assists

Jalen BrunsonNY
6.2± 3.2high
De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high
Stephon CastleSA
6.1± 1.7high

Blocks

OG AnunobyNY
1.0± 1.0high
Karl-Anthony TownsNY
0.9± 0.7high
Julian ChampagnieSA
0.6± 0.7high

Steals

Josh HartNY
1.5± 1.4high
OG AnunobyNY
1.5± 1.3high
De'Aaron FoxSA
1.4± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

55.9%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

55.3%

48.0%

FG%

47.0

47.7%

116.4

PPG

114.9

▶

118.2

27.0

Assists / G

25.0

27.3

12.7

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

12.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR