NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4NY

53-29

9490

62-20

NBASat, Jun 13FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasSA -5.5

Recap · NBA

ew York Knicks went into San Antonio Spurs and beat them, 94–90. Decided by 4.

NY +5.5 cashed (SA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 216.5 by 32.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NY · top performer

Jalen Brunson

G · #11

32.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SA · top performer

Dylan Harper

G · #2

18.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	MIN	PTS	FG	3PT	FT	+/-	REB	AST
Starters
O. AnunobyF · #8	33	11	3-11	1-5	4-6	+2	8	0
K. TownsC · #32	23	2	1-7	0-2	—	-4	10	1
J. HartG · #3	39	13	4-11	3-6	2-3	+15	11	2
M. BridgesG · #25	39	14	5-10	3-7	1-2	+6	2	4
J. BrunsonG · #11	41	45	14-27	4-7	13-15	+10	3	3
Bench
J. SochanF · #20	0	0	—	—	—	+1	0	0
M. RobinsonC · #23	20	2	1-2	—	0-2	+5	10	2
A. HukportiC · #55	2	0	—	—	—	+4	1	1
J. ClarksonG · #00	6	2	1-5	0-2	—	+3	1	0
L. ShametG · #44	13	5	2-7	1-4	—	-14	1	0
J. AlvaradoG · #5	11	0	0-5	0-2	—	-11	1	0
M. McBrideG · #2	13	0	0-2	0-2	—	+3	0	1
Team		94	31-87	12-37	20-28		48	14
DNP: P. Dadiet, M. Diawara, T. Kolek

DNP: P. Dadiet, M. Diawara, T. Kolek

box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	MIN	PTS	FG	3PT	FT	+/-	REB	AST
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #30	31	14	5-9	4-8	—	-10	7	1
V. WembanyamaF · #1	38	19	7-19	1-6	4-5	-3	14	2
D. FoxG · #4	37	7	3-15	1-8	—	+1	0	5
D. VassellG · #24	39	12	5-8	2-5	—	-11	7	2
S. CastleG · #5	32	6	1-10	0-3	4-6	-1	5	4
Bench
K. JohnsonF · #3	16	7	2-5	2-3	1-2	+17	5	0
C. BryantF · #11	6	0	—	—	—	+2	2	0
L. KornetC · #7	10	0	0-1	—	—	-3	2	0
D. HarperG · #2	31	25	10-19	2-4	3-6	-12	5	4
Team		90	33-86	12-37	12-19		47	18
DNP: H. Barnes, K. Olynyk, L. Waters III, B. Biyombo, M. Plumlee, J. McLaughlin

DNP: H. Barnes, K. Olynyk, L. Waters III, B. Biyombo, M. Plumlee, J. McLaughlin

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Playoff series

NY wins series 4-1

Jun 4

NY105@

SA95

Jun 6

NY105@

SA104

Jun 9

SA115@

NY111

Jun 11

SA106@

NY107

Jun 14

NY94@

SA90today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

216.5

Defensive · -9.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NY+16038%

SA-19266%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -5.5↗SpreadBet SA -5.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

216.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNY ↔ SA

Biggest swing: 18pp · 4th Quarter · 8.5

J. Brunson

Game leader · 41 min45-pt night

45 PTS · 3 REB · 3 AST

D. Harper

Game leader · 31 min

25 PTS · 5 REB · 4 AST

How it ended

NY beat SA 94-90. J. Brunson led the way with 45 points and 3 assists. NY outscored the other side 29-18 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SA vs NY

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NYstarters 90% of pts

Starters(5)

85 PTS · 34 REB · 10 AST

GS 60

Bench(7)

9 PTS · 14 REB · 4 AST

GS 4

SAstarters 64% of pts

Starters(5)

58 PTS · 33 REB · 14 AST

GS 41

Bench(4)

32 PTS · 14 REB · 4 AST

GS 22

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SA4th Quarter · 1:53 · 88-85

+14pp→ 43% WP

Karl-Anthony Towns · shooting foul

SA4th Quarter · 2:36 · 86-85

+17pp→ 45% WP

Josh Hart · misses two point shot

SA4th Quarter · 8.5 · 93-90

+18pp→ 33% WP

Landry Shamet · personal take foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NY	13	24	28	29	94
SA	23	19	30	18	90

Period scoring

NY won 2 · SA won 2

Brunson 8

Wembanyama 11

Bridges 8

Castle 13

Brunson 14

Harper 10

Brunson 15

Vassell 11

Shooting comparison

36%

31-87

38%

33-86

32%

12-37

3PT

32%

12-37

71%

20-28

63%

12-19

Play-by-play · 536 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 94·SA 90
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 94·SA 90
−0.7pp
Q4·2.0
OG Anunoby defensive rebound
NY 94·SA 90
Q4·2.0
Victor Wembanyama misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
NY 94·SA 90
−6pp
Q4·7.7
OG Anunoby makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 94·SA 90
+1pp
Q4·7.7
Landry Shamet enters the game for Ariel Hukporti
·
NY 93·SA 90
Q4·7.7
De'Aaron Fox enters the game for Luke Kornet
·
NY 93·SA 90
Q4·7.7
Julian Champagnie enters the game for Stephon Castle
·
NY 93·SA 90
Q4·7.7
Knicks offensive team rebound
NY 93·SA 90
+2pp
Q4·7.7
OG Anunoby misses free throw 1 of 2
NY 93·SA 90
+2pp
Q4·7.7
Dylan Harper personal take foulBIG MOMENT
NY 93·SA 90
−12pp
Q4·8.5
OG Anunoby defensive rebound
NY 93·SA 90
Q4·8.5
Dylan Harper misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
NY 93·SA 90
+7pp
Q4·8.5
Spurs offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
NY 93·SA 90
+7pp
Q4·8.5
Ariel Hukporti enters the game for Landry Shamet
·
NY 93·SA 90
Q4·8.5
Luke Kornet enters the game for De'Aaron FoxBIG MOMENT
·
NY 93·SA 90
−16pp
Q4·8.5
Dylan Harper misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
NY 93·SA 90
−10pp
Q4·8.5
Landry Shamet personal take foulBIG MOMENT
NY 93·SA 90
+18pp
Q4·8.8
De'Aaron Fox enters the game for Luke Kornet
·
NY 93·SA 90
Q4·8.8
Jeremy Sochan enters the game for Mitchell Robinson
·
NY 93·SA 90
Q4·8.8
Spurs Full timeout
NY 93·SA 90
Q4·8.8
Mikal Bridges makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 93·SA 90
+0.5pp
Q4·8.8
Mitchell Robinson enters the game for Jalen Brunson
·
NY 92·SA 90
Q4·8.8
Luke Kornet enters the game for De'Aaron Fox
·
NY 92·SA 90
Q4·8.8
Knicks offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
NY 92·SA 90
+5pp
Q4·8.8
Mikal Bridges misses free throw 1 of 2
NY 92·SA 90
+3pp
Q4·8.8
Dylan Harper personal foulBIG MOMENT
NY 92·SA 90
−13pp
Q4·16.3
Jalen Brunson enters the game for Mitchell Robinson
·
NY 92·SA 90
Q4·16.3
Knicks Full timeout
NY 92·SA 90
Q4·16.3
Stephon Castle makes tip in dunkBIG MOMENT
NY 92·SA 90
+7pp

Team stats

Away

Stat

Home

31-87

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

33-86

FG %

12-37

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-37

20-28

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

12-19

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

SA -5.5·O/U 216.5·NY +160/SA -192

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
Jalen BrunsonNY · G
TOUCHES89.699
Luke KornetSA · C
TS%68.998
Josh HartNY · G
DEFL4.197
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.896

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

9.3%

ensemble · NY favored

Elo Static
27.8%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
24.5%
P(SA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
25.8%
P(SA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.36 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.60

CLV pp

Open price

+164

Close price

+160

Open no-vig

36.3%

Close no-vig

36.9%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+73.4pp

best edge · NY · DraftKings

★ best

+500DraftKings

edge +73.4pp · implied 15.8%

no live price

Book	NY	SA	Best edge
DraftKings	+500★	-810	+73.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

SA vs NY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

180

projections · 155 high confidence

Points

Jalen BrunsonNY
27.4± 9.6high
Victor WembanyamaSA
25.2± 4.8high
OG AnunobyNY
18.6± 7.0high

Rebounds

Karl-Anthony TownsNY
10.8± 3.1high
Victor WembanyamaSA
9.9± 3.2high
Josh HartNY
8.4± 3.0high

Assists

Jalen BrunsonNY
6.2± 3.2high
De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high
Stephon CastleSA
6.1± 1.7high

Blocks

Victor WembanyamaSA
3.0± 1.1high
OG AnunobyNY
1.0± 1.0high
Karl-Anthony TownsNY
0.9± 0.7high

Steals

Josh HartNY
1.5± 1.4high
OG AnunobyNY
1.5± 1.3high
De'Aaron FoxSA
1.4± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

55.9%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

55.3%

48.0%

FG%

47.0

47.7%

116.4

PPG

114.9

▶

118.2

27.0

Assists / G

25.0

27.3

12.7

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

12.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR