NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+8DET

DET

32-10

112104

10-36

NBAWed, Jan 21FinalSeriesDET leads series 1-0VegasDET -7.5

DET · top performer

Jalen Duren

C · #0

22.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NO · top performer

Micah Peavy

G · #14

20.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDET ↔ NO

Biggest swing: 19pp · 1st Quarter · 9:15

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. HarrisF · #12	31	10	4-13	2-6	—	+8	6	3
D. RobinsonF · #55	29	15	5-11	4-9	1-2	+20	4	3
J. DurenC · #0	30	20	7-11	—	6-6	+13	15	3
A. ThompsonG · #9	28	12	5-10	—	2-2	+12	9	3
D. JenkinsG · #24	27	17	5-12	2-6	5-7	+5	1	4
Bench
I. StewartF · #28	24	8	3-7	1-4	1-1	-9	6	3
R. Holland IIF · #5	18	6	2-4	1-1	1-2	-1	2	2
J. GreenG · #31	14	8	3-4	2-3	—	-2	2	0
M. SasserG · #25	21	9	3-11	1-5	2-2	+1	1	4
J. IveyG · #23	18	7	2-5	2-5	1-2	-7	1	1
Team		112	39-88	15-39	19-24		47	26
DNP: P. Reed

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
Z. WilliamsonF · #1	15	4	2-5	—	0-3	-10	4	0
T. Murphy IIIF · #25	35	17	6-19	2-9	3-3	-5	4	2
D. QueenC · #22	23	5	2-2	—	1-2	-8	4	8
S. BeyG · #41	29	20	4-12	1-5	11-11	-5	3	2
J. FearsG · #0	20	12	4-8	0-2	4-4	-12	5	0
Bench
K. LooneyF · #55	10	4	2-2	—	—	-1	7	0
K. MatkovicF · #17	14	5	2-3	1-2	—	+3	2	0
Y. MissiC · #21	26	4	2-4	—	—	-2	6	2
J. PooleG · #3	28	11	4-17	0-7	3-4	+4	2	2
M. PeavyG · #14	27	17	7-11	3-5	—	-1	7	2
B. McGowensG · #11	13	5	1-3	0-2	3-3	-3	2	1
Team		104	36-86	7-32	25-30		46	19
DNP: D. Jordan, J. Hawkins

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

Home

39-88

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

36-86

FG %

15-39

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

7-32

19-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

25-30

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

DET leads series 1-0

Jan 22

DET112@

NO104today

Mar 26

NO108@

DET129

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

233.5

High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DET-27073%

NO+22031%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -7.5↗SpreadBet DET -7.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

233.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DET beat NO 112-104. J. Duren led with 20 PTS, 15 REB, 3 AST. Jalen Duren de's play in the 1st quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

NO vs DET

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DETstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

74 PTS · 35 REB · 16 AST

GS 63

Bench(5)

38 PTS · 12 REB · 10 AST

GS 30

NOstarters 56% of pts

Starters(5)

58 PTS · 20 REB · 12 AST

GS 39

Bench(6)

46 PTS · 26 REB · 7 AST

GS 42

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DET1st Quarter · 9:15 · 13-0

+19pp→ 90% WP

Jalen Duren de · fensive 3-seconds (technical foul)

DET4th Quarter · 4:25 · 103-96

+9pp→ 89% WP

Ausar Thompson · makes 1-foot dunk (Duncan Robinson assists)

NO4th Quarter · 4:38 · 101-96

+12pp→ 14% WP

Saddiq Bey · bad pass turnover (Ausar Thompson steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DET	34	34	21	23	112
NO	30	32	22	20	104

Period scoring

DET won 3 · NO won 1

de 13

Peavy 8

Robinson 6

Poole 8

Duren 6

III 8

Jenkins 9

Bey 9

DET

Shooting comparison

DET

44%

39-88

42%

36-86

38%

15-39

3PT

22%

7-32

79%

19-24

83%

25-30

Play-by-play · 486 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DET 112·NO 104
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DET 112·NO 104
Q4·11.1
Trey Murphy III makes 25-foot three point jumper (Micah Peavy assists)
·
DET 112·NO 104
Q4·18.7
Daniss Jenkins bad pass turnover (Micah Peavy steals)
·
DET 112·NO 101
Q4·45.7
Tobias Harris defensive rebound
DET 112·NO 101
Q4·48.8
Jordan Poole misses 28-foot running jump shot
·
DET 112·NO 101
Q4·54.3
Trey Murphy III defensive rebound
DET 112·NO 101
Q4·56.2
Daniss Jenkins misses free throw 2 of 2
DET 112·NO 101
Q4·56.2
Javonte Green enters the game for Duncan Robinson
·
DET 112·NO 101
Q4·56.2
Daniss Jenkins makes free throw 1 of 2
DET 112·NO 101
Q4·56.2
Yves Missi shooting foul
DET 111·NO 101
Q4·1:16
Jalen Duren defensive rebound
DET 111·NO 101
Q4·1:20
Trey Murphy III misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
DET 111·NO 101
−0.7pp
Q4·1:44
Jalen Duren makes free throw 2 of 2
DET 111·NO 101
Q4·1:44
Jalen Duren makes free throw 1 of 2
DET 110·NO 101
Q4·1:44
Yves Missi shooting foul
DET 109·NO 101
−2pp
Q4·2:06
Saddiq Bey makes 24-foot three point jumper (Yves Missi assists)
·
DET 109·NO 101
+1pp
Q4·2:26
Jalen Duren makes two point shot
DET 109·NO 98
−0.6pp
Q4·2:26
Jalen Duren offensive rebound
DET 107·NO 98
−1pp
Q4·2:27
Ausar Thompson misses tip shot
DET 107·NO 98
+1pp
Q4·2:27
Ausar Thompson offensive rebound
DET 107·NO 98
−1pp
Q4·2:28
Jalen Duren misses 3-foot two point shot
DET 107·NO 98
+0.6pp
Q4·2:47
Saddiq Bey makes free throw 2 of 2
DET 107·NO 98
−1pp
Q4·2:47
Saddiq Bey makes free throw 1 of 2
DET 107·NO 97
Q4·2:47
Tobias Harris shooting foul
DET 107·NO 96
+2pp
Q4·2:56
Saddiq Bey defensive rebound
DET 107·NO 96
Q4·2:58
Daniss Jenkins misses free throw 2 of 2
DET 107·NO 96
+0.8pp
Q4·2:58
Daniss Jenkins makes free throw 1 of 2
DET 107·NO 96
Q4·2:58
Jordan Poole personal foul
·
DET 106·NO 96
−0.7pp
Q4·3:16
Micah Peavy out of bounds bad pass turnover
DET 106·NO 96
−1pp

Betting line

DET -7.5·O/U 233.5·DET -270/NO +220

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

etroit Pistons went into New Orleans Pelicans and beat them, 112–104.

DET -7.5 cashed (won by 8). Total stayed UNDER 233.5 by 17.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Karlo MatkovicNO · F
TS%69.698
Jalen DurenDET · C
TS%68.898
Ausar ThompsonDET · G
DEFL3.596
Zion WilliamsonNO · F
DRIVES13.796
Trey Murphy IIINO · F
DEFL2.891

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NO vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Cade CunninghamDET
26.1± 9.6high
Trey Murphy IIINO
20.0± 6.2high
Jeremiah FearsNO
19.9± 10.9high

Rebounds

Jalen DurenDET
9.1± 3.9high
Derik QueenNO
8.1± 5.6high
Kevon LooneyNO
6.6± 3.6high

Assists

Cade CunninghamDET
8.2± 2.8high
Dejounte MurrayNO
6.4± 4.4low
Jeremiah FearsNO
4.2± 1.9high

Blocks

Yves MissiNO
1.8± 1.5high
Jalen DurenDET
1.0± 1.1high
Derik QueenNO
1.0± 0.9high

Steals

Dejounte MurrayNO
1.6± 0.9low
Jeremiah FearsNO
1.5± 1.1high
Cade CunninghamDET
1.4± 1.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DET

league avg

54.2%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.7%

48.0%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.6%

115.9

PPG

114.9

115.5

27.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.1

14.3

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR