Minnesota Lynx at New York Liberty
MIN
12-3
NY
11-4
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
innesota Lynx visit New York Liberty Friday at 7/3 - 7:30 PM EDT. MIN is rolling — 7-1 in their last 8. NY arrives on a 7-game win streak (7-0 in their last 7).
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Season series
Series starts 7/3
MIN@NYtodayNY@MINupcomingNY@MINupcomingScouting report
MIN @ NY
Model edge vs market
Lean onlyMarket
—
Model
NY -2.0
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
NY
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
12-3
Record
11-4
#1
Conf rank
#1
+13.4
Pt diff
+6.6
W2
Streak
W8
9-1
Last 10
8-2
92.5
Power score
94.5
#2
Power rank
#1
48.2
Sched ahead
51.0
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
NY
Home
51
FG %
46
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
43.8%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
31%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
NY vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
120
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Olivia MilesMIN19.6± 7.7medium
- Breanna StewartNY18.6± 8.2medium
- Natasha HowardMIN17.9± 6.5medium
Rebounds
- Jonquel JonesNY9.3± 4.0medium
- Breanna StewartNY8.6± 2.4medium
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 3.6medium
Assists
- Olivia MilesMIN5.6± 2.8medium
- Courtney WilliamsMIN4.1± 2.1medium
- Pauline AstierNY4.0± 1.8medium
Blocks
- Jonquel JonesNY1.5± 1.4medium
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.4± 1.4medium
- Breanna StewartNY1.1± 2.5medium
Steals
- Natasha HowardMIN2.0± 1.7medium
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.2medium
- Breanna StewartNY1.5± 1.5medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
MIN
league avg
NY
51.1%
FG%
44.5
46.2%
39.6%
3PT %
33.3
35.1%
93.1
PPG
85.5
88.9
22.1
Assists / G
18.0
21.1
14.1
Turnovers / G
13.0
14.6