
STL
42-36

LAD
52-29
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Home starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.
Head to head
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
49.1%
ensemble · STL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 80 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
MLB Stats API
STL
league avg
LAD
.726
OPS
.719
▶.783
.327
OBP
.319
▶.345
4.60
Runs / G
4.50
▶5.22
4.30
Team ERA
4.18
▶3.40
1.35
WHIP
1.31
▶1.10
7.6
K / 9
8.5
▶9.0
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
Preview · MLB
t. Louis Cardinals visit Los Angeles Dodgers Wednesday at 9/2 - 10:10 PM EDT. LAD arrives on a 3-game win streak (8-4 in their last 12).
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MLB · Box score
No player stats available yet.
No player stats available yet.
Team stats
STL
Away
Stat
LAD
Home
359
Runs
423
654
Hits
712
37
Errors
26
1049
TB
1190
88
HR
109
264
BB
329
607
K
644
0
LOB
0
Season series
STL leads series 2-1
Scouting report
STL @ LAD
Tale of the tape
42-36
Record
52-29
#5
Conf rank
#1
0.0
Pt diff
+1.8
L2
Streak
W3
4-6
Last 10
7-3
61.0
Sched ahead
56.1
Bullpen used yesterday
STL
3.7 bullpen IP · heavy
L 9-4 · Jun 24
LAD
0.0 bullpen IP
Pen unused yesterday — full availability.
W 4-3 · Jun 24
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.