Recent form
8-2
PHI +1.6 vs ARI -0.9 margin
PHI brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks
PHI
PHI
78-60
PregameWed, 3:40 PM EDTESPN Unlmtd, MLB.TV
ARI
ARI
73-66
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketChase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Andrew Painter
SP · #24
3-8
W-L
5.95
ERA
1.44
WHIP
85
K
98.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@LAA-6.0 IP3 ER6 K
vsSTLW(3-8)7.0 IP1 ER8 K
@MIN-5.0 IP5 ER2 K
Home starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob55% / 45%
LeanAway · 5pp
ConfidenceLean
Head to head
SeriesPHI leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
ARI vs PHI.
ARI is 5-5 recently; PHI is 8-2.
45.2%
model · ARI win prob
Recent form
- ARI5–5-0.9
- PHI8–2+1.6
Situational
- ARI2d rest
- PHI2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. ARI has 0 straight road games; PHI has 7.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Jesus LuzardoPHI7.7strikeouts · ±3.1
Jesus Luzardo · 7.7 K · last-10 7.9 vs season 7.3.
- Zack WheelerPHI6.9strikeouts · ±3.2
Zack Wheeler · 6.9 K · last-10 7 vs season 6.7.
- Cristopher SanchezPHI6.8strikeouts · ±2.2
Cristopher Sanchez · 6.8 K · last-10 6.7 vs season 7.
Head-to-head · 0-1 · last 1
ARI is 0-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-31PHI @ ARI2–1
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
45.2%
ensemble · PHI favored
Elo Static
46.0%
P(ARI win)
44%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
46.0%
P(ARI win)
11%
weight
Bullpen Park
46.0%
P(ARI win)
45%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
2 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ARI vs PHI.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 117 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Jesus LuzardoPHI7.7± 3.1high
- Zack WheelerPHI6.9± 3.2high
- Cristopher SanchezPHI6.8± 2.2high
Hits
- Bryce HarperPHI1.2± 0.8high
- Geraldo PerdomoARI1.1± 0.6high
- Gabriel MorenoARI1.0± 0.8high
Total bases
- Bryce HarperPHI2.2± 1.9high
- Kyle SchwarberPHI2.0± 2.3high
- Edmundo SosaPHI1.8± 1.6high
RBIs
- Edmundo SosaPHI1.1± 1.5high
- Lars NootbaarARI0.8± 1.3high
- Gabriel MorenoARI0.7± 0.7high
Earned runs
- Andrew PainterPHI3.4± 2.0high
- Merrill KellyARI2.8± 2.4high
- Jose CabreraARI2.6± 2.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
PHI
league avg
ARI
.715
OPS
.718
.713
.313
OBP
.318
.316
4.52
Runs / G
4.50
4.50
4.03
Team ERA
◀
4.16
4.17
1.29
WHIP
1.30
1.29
10.0
K / 9
◀
8.5
6.9
The One modelLean
Wed, Sep 2PHI★
Phillies
96-74
vs54.8%PHI
ARI
Diamondbacks
77-82
PHI 54.8%win prob45.2% ARI
PHI 1557 · ARI 1505Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
