Park factor
96 total idx
Tropicana Field run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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New York Mets at Tampa Bay Rays
NYM
NYM
62-76
PregameWed, 6:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
TB
TB
82-55
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketTropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Justin Hagenman
RP · #47
—
W-L
—
ERA
—
WHIP
—
K
—
IP
Home starter
Shane McClanahan
SP · #18
10-6
W-L
3.19
ERA
1.11
WHIP
103
K
113.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsSDW(10-6)5.2 IP3 ER4 K
@BAL-5.0 IP0 ER5 K
vsBAL-3.1 IP3 ER3 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob37% / 63%
LeanHome · 13pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesNYM lead series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
TB vs NYM.
TB is 6-4 recently; NYM is 4-6.
63.1%
model · TB win prob
Recent form
- TB6–4+0.8
- NYM4–6-1.0
Situational
- TB2d rest
- NYM2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. TB has 0 straight road games; NYM has 1.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.3 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.3pp
Players to watch
- Nolan McLeanNYM6.1strikeouts · ±2.2
Nolan McLean · 6.1 K · last-10 5.9 vs season 6.4.
- Christian ScottNYM5.9strikeouts · ±1.6
Christian Scott · 5.9 K · last-10 6 vs season 5.7.
- Drew RasmussenTB5.5strikeouts · ±3.0
Drew Rasmussen · 5.5 K · last-10 5.4 vs season 5.6.
Head-to-head · 0-1 · last 1
TB is 0-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-31NYM @ TB3–2
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
63.1%
ensemble · TB favored
Elo Static
65.4%
P(TB win)
44%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
65.4%
P(TB win)
11%
weight
Bullpen Park
65.7%
P(TB win)
45%
weight
Disagreement
0.15 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
99% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
2 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
TB vs NYM.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 108 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Nolan McLeanNYM6.1± 2.2high
- Christian ScottNYM5.9± 1.6high
- Drew RasmussenTB5.5± 3.0high
Hits
- Chandler SimpsonTB1.3± 0.8high
- Junior CamineroTB1.3± 0.5high
- Carson BengeNYM1.2± 1.1high
Total bases
- Junior CamineroTB2.1± 1.4high
- Carson BengeNYM1.7± 1.8high
- Luis TorrensNYM1.7± 2.0high
RBIs
- Jonny DeLucaTB0.6± 1.0high
- Junior CamineroTB0.6± 0.5high
- Jared YoungNYM0.5± 1.0high
Earned runs
- Freddy PeraltaTB3.2± 2.5high
- Robert StockNYM2.8± 4.9low
- Sean ManaeaNYM2.6± 1.6high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
NYM
league avg
TB
.694
OPS
.718
▶.732
.305
OBP
.318
▶.329
4.09
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.51
4.07
Team ERA
4.16
▶3.76
1.30
WHIP
1.30
▶1.15
9.0
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.3
The One modelEdge
Wed, Sep 2NYM
Mets
72-88
vs63.1%TB
TB★
Rays
110-55
NYM 36.9%win prob63.1% TB
TB 1578 · NYM 1491Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
