Recent form
3-7
MIN -0.5 vs DET -2.7 margin
MIN brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins
DET
DET
63-74
PregameWed, 7:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
MIN
MIN
66-72
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketTarget Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Drew Anderson
RP · #38
4-5
W-L
3.87
ERA
1.33
WHIP
96
K
86.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsLAD-4.2 IP0 ER5 K
@KCL(4-5)5.0 IP3 ER4 K
vsCHW-5.0 IP3 ER5 K
Home starter
Dean Kremer
SP · #13
2-5
W-L
5.60
ERA
1.26
WHIP
61
K
62.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsCHWL(2-5)4.0 IP5 ER3 K
@SD-5.1 IP2 ER5 K
vsPHI-5.1 IP4 ER6 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob39% / 61%
LeanHome · 11pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesMIN leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
MIN vs DET.
MIN is 3-7 recently; DET is 2-8.
60.6%
model · MIN win prob
Recent form
- MIN3–7-0.5
- DET2–8-2.7
Situational
- MIN2d rest
- DET2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. MIN has 0 straight road games; DET has 1.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.1pp
Players to watch
- Taj BradleyMIN6.6strikeouts · ±2.9
Taj Bradley · 6.6 K · last-10 6.6 vs season 6.6.
- Framber ValdezDET4.1strikeouts · ±2.7
Framber Valdez · 4.1 K · last-10 3.9 vs season 4.3.
- Bailey OberMIN3.7strikeouts · ±1.9
Bailey Ober · 3.7 K · last-10 3.6 vs season 3.8.
Head-to-head · 1-0 · last 1
MIN is 1-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-31DET @ MIN1–11
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
60.5%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
58.2%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.1%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
59.7%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.47 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
90% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIN vs DET.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
122
projections · 104 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Taj BradleyMIN6.6± 2.9high
- Connor PrielippMIN5.7± 2.4medium
- Troy MeltonDET5.3± 2.4medium
Hits
- Luke KeaschallMIN1.2± 0.8high
- Brooks LeeMIN1.1± 0.9high
- Kaelen CulpepperMIN1.1± 1.1high
Total bases
- Brooks LeeMIN2.2± 2.3high
- Luke KeaschallMIN1.9± 1.9high
- Kaelen CulpepperMIN1.8± 1.6high
RBIs
- Brooks LeeMIN0.8± 1.2high
- Walker JenkinsMIN0.8± 1.3low
- Josh BellMIN0.7± 1.1high
Earned runs
- Yilber DiazDET3.7± 4.7low
- Connor PrielippMIN3.4± 2.3medium
- Dean KremerMIN3.3± 3.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
DET
league avg
MIN
.711
OPS
.718
▶.727
.314
OBP
.318
▶.319
4.36
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.62
3.63
Team ERA
◀
4.16
4.63
1.23
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.38
8.2
K / 9
8.5
▶8.5
The One modelEdge
Wed, Sep 2DET
Tigers
66-89
vs60.6%MIN
MIN★
Twins
88-78
DET 39.4%win prob60.6% MIN
MIN 1499 · DET 1466Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- PadresReds9/2 - 12:40 PM EDT
- BravesNationals9/2 - 1:05 PM EDT
- AthleticsRangers9/2 - 2:35 PM EDT
- OriolesRockies9/2 - 3:10 PM EDT
- PhilliesDiamondbacks9/2 - 3:40 PM EDT
- MarinersRed Sox9/2 - 4:10 PM EDT
- MetsRays9/2 - 6:40 PM EDT
- GiantsPirates9/2 - 6:40 PM EDT
- Blue JaysGuardians9/2 - 6:40 PM EDT
- MarlinsRoyals9/2 - 7:40 PM EDT
- BrewersCubs9/2 - 7:40 PM EDT
- White SoxAstros9/2 - 8:10 PM EDT
- YankeesAngels9/2 - 9:38 PM EDT
- CardinalsDodgers9/2 - 10:10 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
