Recent form
5-5
CHI -4.1 vs CON -13.2 margin
CHI brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Chicago Sky at Connecticut Sun
CHI
CHI
15-23
PregameTue, 7:00 PM EDTNBC Sports BO, WNBA League Pass, CW26
CON
CON
9-27
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
3 signals · model + marketPreview · WNBA
hicago Sky visit Connecticut Sun Tuesday at 8/25 - 7:00 PM EDT. CHI is 4-4 in their last 8.
Vegas opened CHI as a 5.5-point favorite with the total at 169.5. CON's moneyline implies a 35% break-even, CHI the inverse.
For bettors: the CHI side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 169.5 total reads near the league average.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Updated 0s ago
Team stats
CHI
Away
Stat
CON
Home
44
FG %
43
Season series
CHI leads series 2-1
Jun 5CON80@CHI85
CON80@CHI85Jun 22CHI63@CON92
CHI63@CON92Jul 31CON88@CHI94
CON88@CHI94Aug 25CHI@CONtoday
CHI@CONtodayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
CHI -5.5
Half-pt above key 5
Total
169.5
Standard · +4.5 vs avg
1.0pt· 6.4h
Moneyline
CHI-22569%CON+18535%10· 6.4h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
5.5
+1.0 since open
Total
169.5
-1.0 since open
Scouting report
CHI @ CON
Rest going in
CON +1 day
CHIStandard
1 day
last game Aug 23
CONStandard
2 days
last game Aug 22
Model edge vs market
Lean onlySpread
Market
CHI -5.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Total
Market
169.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Moneyline
Market
CHI -225
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
CHImetricCON
15-23
Record
9-27
#5
Conf rank
#7
-2.5
Pt diff
-8.0
L1
Streak
L2
5-5
Last 10
2-8
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Betting line
CHI -5.5·O/U 169.5·CHI -225/CON +185
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Scouting report · pre-game
CON vs CHI.
CON is 2-8 recently; CHI is 5-5.
44.9%
model · CON win prob
Recent form
- CON2–8-13.2
- CHI5–5-4.1
Situational
- CON3d rest
- CHI2d rest
- +1.0d differential
CON has 1 more rest day. CON has 2 straight road games; CHI has 0.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Sydney TaylorCHI15.8points · ±8.2
Sydney Taylor · 15.8 pts · last-10 16.9 vs season 14.2.
- Kamilla CardosoCHI14.8points · ±4.0
Kamilla Cardoso · 14.8 pts · last-10 15.2 vs season 14.3.
- Natasha CloudCHI14.2points · ±7.8
Natasha Cloud · 14.2 pts · last-10 16 vs season 11.5.
Head-to-head · 3-3 · last 6
CON is 3-3 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2025-08-23CON @ CHI94–84
- 2025-09-04CON @ CHI64–88
- 2026-06-05CON @ CHI80–85
- 2026-06-22CHI @ CON63–92
- 2026-07-30CON @ CHI88–94
Line move
open +150→+180toward CHI
The market has moved 4.3pp toward the away side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
41.8%
ensemble · CHI favored
Elo Static
48.0%
P(CON win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
46.7%
P(CON win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
43.0%
P(CON win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
2.13 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
86% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
-4.72
CLV pp · steam
Open price
+150
Close price
+185
Open no-vig
38.4%
Close no-vig
33.6%
Market faded the model hard
How we read this game
- Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at CON?
- The model favors CON, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
- When is the pick logged, and can it change?
- Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
Player projections
CON vs CHI.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 110 high confidence
Points
- Rickea JacksonCHI16.0± 11.0low
- Sydney TaylorCHI15.8± 8.2high
- Kamilla CardosoCHI14.8± 4.0high
Rebounds
- Kamilla CardosoCHI9.4± 2.8high
- Azura StevensCHI6.7± 1.9high
- Brittney GrinerCON6.4± 2.7high
Assists
- Natasha CloudCHI5.7± 2.2high
- Courtney VanderslootCHI5.4± 1.9high
- Skylar DigginsCHI4.9± 2.4high
Blocks
- Brittney GrinerCON1.8± 0.9high
- Kamilla CardosoCHI1.3± 0.9high
- Rickea JacksonCHI1.2± 1.6low
Steals
- Saniya RiversCON1.4± 1.4high
- Courtney VanderslootCHI1.3± 1.4high
- Kennedy BurkeCON1.3± 1.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Team pages
Elsewhere in the WNBA