Recent form
7-3
GS +7.8 vs CON -9.1 margin
GS brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Golden State Valkyries at Connecticut Sun
GS
GS
26-11
PregameWed, 7:00 PM EDTNBC Sports BO, WNBA League Pass, KPIX+
CON
CON
10-27
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
3 signals · model + marketPreview · WNBA
olden State Valkyries visit Connecticut Sun Wednesday at 8/26 - 7:00 PM EDT. GS is rolling — 5-2 in their last 7.
Vegas opened GS as a 13.5-point favorite with the total at 151.5. CON's moneyline implies a 13% break-even, GS the inverse. CON is on a back-to-back.
For bettors: the GS side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 151.5 total reads defensive vs the league average.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Updated 0s ago
Team stats
GS
Away
Stat
CON
Home
42
FG %
43
Season series
GS leads series 2-0
May 26CON70@GS97
CON70@GS97Jul 10GS79@CON64
GS79@CON64Aug 26GS@CONtoday
GS@CONtodayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
GS -13.5
Between 10 and —
Total
151.5
Defensive · -13.5 vs avg
Moneyline
GS-100091%CON+65013%100· 6.4h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
13.5
+2.0 since open
Total
151.5
-5.0 since open
Scouting report
GS @ CON
Rest going in
GS +1 day
GSStandard
1 day
last game Aug 24
CONB2B
0 days
last game Aug 25
Model edge vs market
Lean onlySpread
Market
GS -13.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Total
Market
151.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Moneyline
Market
GS -1000
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
GSmetricCON
26-11
Record
10-27
#2
Conf rank
#7
+6.2
Pt diff
-7.7
W1
Streak
W1
7-3
Last 10
3-7
60.2
Sched ahead
62.0
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Betting line
GS -13.5·O/U 151.5·GS -1000/CON +650
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Scouting report · pre-game
CON vs GS.
CON is 3-7 recently; GS is 7-3.
8.6%
model · CON win prob
Recent form
- CON3–7-9.1
- GS7–3+7.8
Situational
- CON1d restB2B
- GS2d rest
- -1.0d differential
GS has 1 more rest day. CON has 0 straight road games; GS has 2.
Model angle
+4.2ppon GS
GS's edge is mostly line steam plus venue split. Model confidence is the main caution flag.
- ▲Line steam+2.5pp
- ▲Venue split+1.8pp
- ▲Head to head+0.8pp
Players to watch
- Gabby WilliamsGS14.0points · ±5.9
Gabby Williams · 14 pts · last-10 13.6 vs season 14.5.
- Brittney GrinerCON13.9points · ±7.0
Brittney Griner · 13.9 pts · last-10 14.5 vs season 13.1.
- Veronica BurtonGS13.5points · ±4.0
Veronica Burton · 13.5 pts · last-10 14.1 vs season 12.5.
Head-to-head · 1-3 · last 4
CON is 1-3 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2025-07-27GS @ CON64–95
- 2025-08-12CON @ GS57–74
- 2026-05-25CON @ GS70–97
- 2026-07-10GS @ CON79–64
Line move
open +455→+650toward GS
The market has moved 4.7pp toward the away side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
9.2%
ensemble · GS favored
Elo Static
19.1%
P(CON win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
19.4%
P(CON win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
21.1%
P(CON win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.88 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
94% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Why we like GS.
GS's edge is mostly line steam plus venue split. Model confidence is the main caution flag.
+4.2
pp edge · GS
-4.50
CLV pp · steam
5.0u · large
on GS
97.8%
±4.9pp band
5u large — +6.9pp edge, quarter Kelly capped.
Edge
+10.6pp
+6.4pp post-cal
Kelly
75.8%
5.0% sized
Decimal
1.10
+6.9pp vs price
Contributor breakdown · sums to 4.2pp · GS over CON
- ▲+2.5ppLine steam84% conf
The market moved 4.5pp toward GS since open.
- ▲+1.8ppVenue split70% conf
GS's venue form is 25.5pp stronger in the recent sample.
- ▲+0.8ppHead to head48% conf
GS has taken 3 of the last 3 meetings.
- ▼-0.7ppModel confidence68% conf
GS is a lean, so the confidence layer stays modest.
- ▼-0.7ppTravel burden58% conf
GS is carrying the heavier road load, so the edge gets a haircut.
- ▲+0.4ppRest advantage65% conf
GS has 2 days rest; CON has 1.
Open price
+455
Close price
+650
Open no-vig
17.3%
Close no-vig
12.8%
Market faded the model hard
How we read this game
- Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in GS at CON?
- The model favors GS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
- When is the pick logged, and can it change?
- Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
Line shopping · 1 book
Where to bet this game.
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+4.2pp
best edge · GS · DraftKings
GS
★ best-1000DraftKings
edge +4.2pp · implied 87.2%
CON
no live price
| Book | GS | CON | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -1000★ | +650 | +4.2 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Player projections
CON vs GS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 105 high confidence
Points
- Gabby WilliamsGS14.0± 5.8high
- Brittney GrinerCON13.9± 7.0high
- Veronica BurtonGS13.5± 4.0high
Rebounds
- Brittney GrinerCON6.4± 2.7high
- Kiah StokesGS6.0± 2.3high
- Olivia Nelson-OdodaCON5.9± 4.4high
Assists
- Veronica BurtonGS5.6± 2.3high
- Leila LacanCON4.7± 2.4high
- Charlisse Leger-WalkerCON4.0± 2.3high
Blocks
- Brittney GrinerCON1.8± 0.9high
- Kiah StokesGS1.6± 1.5high
- Kennedy BurkeCON0.9± 1.1high
Steals
- Veronica BurtonGS1.9± 1.4high
- Kennedy BurkeCON1.6± 1.5high
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.6± 1.2high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Team pages
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