Recent form
6-4
NYY +0.9 vs HOU -1.5 margin
NYY brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Houston Astros at New York Yankees
HOU
HOU
66-66
PregameThu, 7:05 PM EDTMLB.TV
NYY
NYY
74-57
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketYankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Hayden Wesneski
SP · #39
3-1
W-L
4.23
ERA
1.23
WHIP
22
K
27.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsATHW(3-1)5.0 IP0 ER4 K
vsSEAL(2-1)4.0 IP5 ER6 K
@SF-7.0 IP3 ER4 K
Home starter
Gerrit Cole
SP · #45
7-6
W-L
3.11
ERA
1.07
WHIP
100
K
92.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@BALW(7-6)6.0 IP1 ER8 K
@TORL(6-6)6.0 IP1 ER5 K
vsATLW(6-5)7.0 IP2 ER9 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob41% / 59%
LeanHome · 9pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesHOU leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
NYY vs HOU.
NYY is 6-4 recently; HOU is 4-6.
59.2%
model · NYY win prob
Recent form
- NYY6–4+0.9
- HOU4–6-1.5
Situational
- NYY2d rest
- HOU2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. NYY has 0 straight road games; HOU has 1.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Cam SchlittlerNYY7.4strikeouts · ±2.5
Cam Schlittler · 7.4 K · last-10 7.5 vs season 7.1.
- Peter LambertHOU5.5strikeouts · ±2.4
Peter Lambert · 5.5 K · last-10 5.6 vs season 5.5.
- Will WarrenNYY4.5strikeouts · ±2.0
Will Warren · 4.5 K · last-10 4.2 vs season 4.8.
Head-to-head · 0-1 · last 1
NYY is 0-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-25HOU @ NYY9–7
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
59.4%
ensemble · NYY favored
Elo Static
55.8%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.2%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.6%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.71 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
95% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
NYY vs HOU.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 109 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Cam SchlittlerNYY7.4± 2.5high
- Gerrit ColeNYY6.8± 2.3medium
- Peter LambertHOU5.5± 2.4high
Hits
- Isaac ParedesHOU1.1± 0.9high
- Jose AltuveHOU1.1± 0.8high
- Yordan AlvarezHOU1.1± 1.0high
Total bases
- Yordan AlvarezHOU2.0± 2.0high
- Luis Garcia Jr.NYY2.0± 2.9high
- Isaac ParedesHOU1.8± 1.9high
RBIs
- Isaac ParedesHOU0.8± 1.3high
- Luis Garcia Jr.NYY0.7± 1.1high
- Ben RiceNYY0.6± 0.8high
Earned runs
- Hayden WesneskiHOU2.6± 2.5low
- Will WarrenNYY2.6± 2.3high
- Hunter BrownHOU2.4± 2.2low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
HOU
league avg
NYY
.730
OPS
◀
.718
.718
.318
OBP
◀
.318
.310
4.58
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.47
4.65
Team ERA
4.16
▶3.24
1.37
WHIP
1.30
▶1.18
8.8
K / 9
8.5
▶9.0
The One modelEdge
Thu, Aug 27HOU
Astros
84-75
vs59.2%NYY
NYY★
Yankees
85-69
HOU 40.8%win prob59.2% NYY
NYY 1533 · HOU 1517Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
