Park factor
98 total idx
Busch Stadium run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinals
BAL
BAL
65-68
PregameThu, 2:15 PM EDTESPN Unlmtd, MLB.TV
STL
STL
66-68
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketBusch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
Line movement
200 snapshots
STL spread
+1.5
open -1.5 · +3.0
Total
O/U 8.0
open O/U 8.0
STL no-vig %
47.8%
open 48.3% · -0.4
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Trevor Rogers
SP · #28
9-8
W-L
4.14
ERA
1.24
WHIP
114
K
132.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsTBW(9-8)7.0 IP3 ER6 K
@TBW(8-8)6.0 IP2 ER6 K
@MINL(7-8)4.0 IP2 ER4 K
Home starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 8
Money-116 / +108
Model edge
Win prob42% / 59%
LeanHome · 9pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesBAL leads series 2-0
TypeCurrent Series
Place a bet
Take STL on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Scouting report · pre-game
STL vs BAL.
STL has dropped 5 straight; BAL is 5-5 over its last 10.
58.5%
model · STL win prob
Recent form
- STL3–7-2.2
- BAL5–5+1.2
Situational
- STL1d restB2B
- BAL1d restB2B
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. STL has 0 straight road games; BAL has 2.
Model angle
+11.3ppon STL
STL's edge is mostly model confidence plus travel burden. Recent form is the main caution flag. Weather and park are neutral for the total environment.
- ▼Recent form-1.6pp
- ▲Model confidence+1.5pp
- ▲Travel burden+0.5pp
Players to watch
- Matthew LiberatoreSTL5.8strikeouts · ±2.1
Matthew Liberatore · 5.8 K · last-10 6.2 vs season 5.1.
- Trevor RogersBAL5.5strikeouts · ±1.7
Trevor Rogers · 5.5 K · last-10 6 vs season 4.8.
- Shane BazBAL5.3strikeouts · ±3.1
Shane Baz · 5.3 K · last-10 5.4 vs season 5.2.
Head-to-head · 0-2 · last 2
STL is 0-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-25BAL @ STL13–1
- 2026-08-26BAL @ STL8–7
Line move
open -102→+100toward BAL
The market has moved 0.5pp toward the away side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
58.5%
ensemble · STL favored
Elo Static
55.0%
P(STL win)
44%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
55.0%
P(STL win)
11%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.9%
P(STL win)
45%
weight
Disagreement
0.05 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
2 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
STL vs BAL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
127
projections · 109 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Matthew LiberatoreSTL5.8± 2.1high
- Trevor RogersBAL5.5± 1.7high
- Shane BazBAL5.3± 3.1high
Hits
- Pete AlonsoBAL1.4± 1.1high
- Alec BurlesonSTL1.2± 0.4high
- Jordan WalkerSTL1.2± 0.9high
Total bases
- Pete AlonsoBAL2.8± 2.4high
- Jordan WalkerSTL2.2± 1.8high
- Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL2.1± 2.7high
RBIs
- Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL1.1± 1.6high
- Pete AlonsoBAL1.1± 1.4high
- Alec BurlesonSTL0.8± 0.9high
Earned runs
- Quinn MathewsSTL3.3± 4.3low
- Matthew LiberatoreSTL3.0± 2.5high
- Kyle BradishBAL2.7± 1.9high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
BAL
league avg
STL
.718
OPS
◀
.719
.698
.319
OBP
.318
.316
4.54
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.43
4.19
Team ERA
◀
4.16
4.24
1.34
WHIP
1.30
1.34
8.0
K / 9
◀
8.5
7.8
The One modelEdge
Thu, Aug 27BAL
Orioles
69-90
vs58.5%STL
STL★
Cardinals
78-73
BAL 41.5%win prob58.5% STL
STL 1490 · BAL 1479Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
