Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 26, 2026

MIL

81-50

PregameWed, 7:10 PM EDTMLB.TV

NYM

59-72

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Park factor

96 total idx

Citi Field run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Recent form

7-3

MIL +3.1 vs NYM +0.4 margin

MIL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Citi Field · Queens, New York

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Dustin May

SP · #21

6-8

W-L

4.57

ERA

1.30

WHIP

118

124.0

Last 3 starts

vsSEAL(6-8)2.0 IP7 ER1 K

@SD-7.0 IP1 ER6 K

vsPITW(6-7)6.0 IP2 ER5 K

Home starter

Robert Stock

RP · #89

0-2

W-L

5.40

ERA

1.68

WHIP

16.2

Last 3 starts

vsSD-4.1 IP1 ER6 K

vsWSH-4.1 IP0 ER5 K

@PITL(0-2)3.0 IP8 ER4 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Win prob53% / 47%

LeanTossup

ConfidenceTossup

Head to head

SeriesMIL leads series 2-1

TypeRegular Season Series

Scouting report · pre-game

NYM vs MIL.

NYM is 6-4 recently; MIL is 7-3.

47.5%

model · NYM win prob

Recent form

NYM6–4+0.4
MIL7–3+3.1

Situational

NYM3d rest
MIL3d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. NYM has 3 straight road games; MIL has 0.

Model angle

Weather and park remove about 0.3 runs from the total environment.

▼Weather + park-0.3pp

Players to watch

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
8.7strikeouts · ±2.2
Jacob Misiorowski · 8.7 K · last-10 8.5 vs season 9.
Nolan McLeanNYM
6.3strikeouts · ±2.2
Nolan McLean · 6.3 K · last-10 6.2 vs season 6.5.
Kyle HarrisonMIL
6.1strikeouts · ±3.5
Kyle Harrison · 6.1 K · last-10 6.1 vs season 6.1.

Head-to-head · 1-2 · last 3

NYM is 1-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-07-20NYM @ MIL3–8
2026-07-21NYM @ MIL4–0
2026-07-22NYM @ MIL3–4

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

46.4%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
47.0%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
46.0%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
46.4%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.41 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NYM vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 102 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
8.7± 2.2high
Nolan McLeanNYM
6.3± 2.1high
Logan HendersonMIL
6.2± 2.4low

Hits

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.2± 1.1high
William ContrerasMIL
1.2± 1.3high
Carson BengeNYM
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Luis TorrensNYM
2.2± 2.4high
Bo BichetteNYM
2.1± 2.1high
Carson BengeNYM
2.1± 2.1high

RBIs

Luis TorrensNYM
1.0± 1.4high
Jake BauersMIL
0.7± 0.9high
Joey OrtizMIL
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Dustin MayMIL
2.8± 2.6high
Robert GasserMIL
2.8± 2.0medium
Robert StockNYM
2.5± 5.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIL

league avg

NYM

.733

OPS

◀

.719

.698

.337

OBP

◀

.318

.307

4.96

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.17

3.42

Team ERA

◀

4.16

4.07

1.17

WHIP

◀

1.30

9.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

9.1

The One modelTossup

Wed, Aug 26

MIL★

Brewers

85-64

vs52.6%MIL

NYM

Mets

69-84

MIL 52.6%win prob47.4% NYM

MIL 1540 · NYM 1495Box score→

Team pages

Milwaukee BrewersNew York Mets

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets

The matchup, end-to-end.

NYM vs MIL.

3 sub-models, blended.

NYM vs MIL.

Team rate stats vs league