Baltimore Orioles vs St. Louis Cardinals: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 26, 2026

BAL

38-42

PregameWed, 7:45 PM EDT

STL

42-35

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

1 signal · model + market

Park factor

98 total idx

Busch Stadium run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Home starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.

Head to head

SeriesSTL wins series 2-0

TypePreseason Series

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.5%

ensemble · BAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

STL vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

Kyle BradishBAL
6.1± 3.6medium
Dustin MaySTL
5.5± 3.4medium
Shane BazBAL
5.2± 2.9medium

Hits

JJ WetherholtSTL
1.4± 1.3high
Blaze AlexanderBAL
1.1± 1.3high
Gunnar HendersonBAL
1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

Gunnar HendersonBAL
2.2± 2.3high
JJ WetherholtSTL
2.2± 2.8high
Alec BurlesonSTL
2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

Pete AlonsoBAL
0.8± 1.1high
Alec BurlesonSTL
0.8± 0.6high
Blaze JordanSTL
0.8± 1.4low

Earned runs

Trevor RogersBAL
3.3± 2.9low
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
3.0± 1.9medium
Trey GibsonBAL
2.8± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BAL

league avg

STL

.723

OPS

.719

.727

.320

OBP

.319

▶

.328

4.63

Runs / G

4.50

4.61

4.41

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.25

1.38

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.34

7.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.6

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinals

The matchup, end-to-end.

3 sub-models, blended.

STL vs BAL.

Team rate stats vs league

3 sub-models, blended.