Recent form
6-4
TEX +0.4 vs CHW -1.0 margin
TEX brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox
TEX
TEX
66-66
PregameWed, 7:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
CHW
CHW
68-63
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketRate Field · Chicago, Illinois
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
MacKenzie Gore
SP · #1
7-9
W-L
4.26
ERA
1.23
WHIP
161
K
145.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsLAA-6.0 IP0 ER7 K
@ATHW(7-9)5.2 IP3 ER5 K
@LAA-5.1 IP1 ER9 K
Home starter
Sean Burke
SP · #59
7-6
W-L
3.27
ERA
1.11
WHIP
158
K
146.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsNYM-6.0 IP4 ER4 K
@DET-4.1 IP4 ER2 K
vsCIN-7.0 IP1 ER8 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob41% / 59%
LeanHome · 9pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesTEX leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
CHW vs TEX.
CHW is 5-5 recently; TEX is 6-4.
59.4%
model · CHW win prob
Recent form
- CHW5–5-1.0
- TEX6–4+0.4
Situational
- CHW2d rest
- TEX2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. CHW has 0 straight road games; TEX has 1.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Sean BurkeCHW6.7strikeouts · ±3.1
Sean Burke · 6.7 K · last-10 7.1 vs season 6.1.
- Jacob deGromTEX6.7strikeouts · ±2.7
Jacob deGrom · 6.7 K · last-10 6.8 vs season 6.5.
- MacKenzie GoreTEX6.2strikeouts · ±1.8
MacKenzie Gore · 6.2 K · last-10 6.4 vs season 6.
Head-to-head · 2-2 · last 4
CHW is 2-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-07-20CHW @ TEX10–3
- 2026-07-21CHW @ TEX0–10
- 2026-07-22CHW @ TEX4–2
- 2026-08-24TEX @ CHW11–2
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
59.8%
ensemble · CHW favored
Elo Static
56.9%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
58.1%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.0%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.54 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
96% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CHW vs TEX.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 117 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Sean BurkeCHW6.7± 3.1high
- Jacob deGromTEX6.7± 2.7high
- MacKenzie GoreTEX6.2± 1.8high
Hits
- Miguel VargasCHW1.2± 1.1high
- Corey SeagerTEX1.2± 1.1high
- Tristan PetersCHW1.0± 1.1high
Total bases
- Miguel VargasCHW2.5± 3.3high
- Corey SeagerTEX2.1± 2.4high
- Tristan PetersCHW1.8± 2.3high
RBIs
- Andrew BenintendiCHW0.7± 0.8high
- Braden MontgomeryCHW0.7± 1.1high
- Miguel VargasCHW0.6± 1.1high
Earned runs
- Luis CastilloCHW3.0± 1.7high
- Kumar RockerTEX2.7± 2.3high
- MacKenzie GoreTEX2.7± 2.4high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
TEX
league avg
CHW
.711
OPS
.719
▶.725
.316
OBP
.318
.317
4.03
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.73
4.18
Team ERA
4.16
4.14
1.29
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.31
8.7
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.5
The One modelEdge
Wed, Aug 26TEX
Rangers
82-75
vs59.4%CHW
CHW★
White Sox
84-70
TEX 40.6%win prob59.4% CHW
CHW 1518 · TEX 1494Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- RaysTigers8/26 - 1:10 PM EDT
- CubsDiamondbacks8/26 - 3:40 PM EDT
- RedsGiants8/26 - 3:45 PM EDT
- GuardiansAngels8/26 - 4:07 PM EDT
- PhilliesMariners8/26 - 4:10 PM EDT
- PiratesPadres8/26 - 4:10 PM EDT
- Red SoxMarlins8/26 - 6:40 PM EDT
- RockiesNationals8/26 - 6:45 PM EDT
- AstrosYankees8/26 - 7:05 PM EDT
- RoyalsBlue Jays8/26 - 7:07 PM EDT
- BrewersMets8/26 - 7:10 PM EDT
- DodgersBraves8/26 - 7:15 PM EDT
- OriolesCardinals8/26 - 7:45 PM EDT
- TwinsAthletics8/26 - 9:05 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
