Recent form
3-7
KC -1.7 vs LAD -2.1 margin
KC brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Dodgers
KC
KC
49-71
PregameWed, 10:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
LAD
LAD
71-48
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketDodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Daniel Lynch IV
RP · #41
4-3
W-L
2.45
ERA
1.01
WHIP
37
K
47.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsCHCL(4-3)1.2 IP3 ER2 K
vsMIN-1.0 IP0 ER1 K
@MIN-1.0 IP0 ER0 K
Home starter
Eric Lauer
SP · #33
6-6
W-L
4.89
ERA
1.26
WHIP
57
K
92.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@CHCL(6-6)4.0 IP6 ER1 K
vsSEAW(6-5)6.0 IP0 ER4 K
@PHIW(5-5)5.1 IP3 ER5 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob36% / 64%
LeanHome · 14pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesLAD lead series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
LAD vs KC.
LAD is 2-8 recently; KC is 3-7.
63.8%
model · LAD win prob
Recent form
- LAD2–8-2.1
- KC3–7-1.7
Situational
- LAD2d rest
- KC2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. LAD has 0 straight road games; KC has 1.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD5.9strikeouts · ±2.0
Yoshinobu Yamamoto · 5.9 K · last-10 5.8 vs season 6.
- Roki SasakiLAD5.5strikeouts · ±2.5
Roki Sasaki · 5.5 K · last-10 5.6 vs season 5.3.
- Noah CameronKC5.3strikeouts · ±3.4
Noah Cameron · 5.3 K · last-10 5.3 vs season 5.3.
Head-to-head · 1-0 · last 1
LAD is 1-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-10KC @ LAD5–6
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
62.9%
ensemble · LAD favored
Elo Static
64.1%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
61.2%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
63.8%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.30 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
91% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LAD vs KC.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
127
projections · 100 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Tarik SkubalLAD7.5± 2.8medium
- Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD5.9± 2.0high
- Kris BubicLAD5.7± 3.6low
Hits
- Jac CaglianoneKC1.3± 1.1high
- Andy PagesLAD1.2± 0.7high
- Freddie FreemanLAD1.2± 1.0high
Total bases
- Jac CaglianoneKC2.5± 3.5high
- Shohei OhtaniLAD2.3± 2.9high
- Andy PagesLAD1.8± 1.2high
RBIs
- Jac CaglianoneKC0.8± 1.4high
- Luke MaileKC0.8± 1.6low
- Shohei OhtaniLAD0.7± 1.1high
Earned runs
- Noah CameronKC3.0± 2.6high
- Seth LugoKC3.0± 2.1high
- Roki SasakiLAD2.7± 2.3high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
KC
league avg
LAD
.710
OPS
.719
▶.767
.312
OBP
.318
▶.338
4.14
Runs / G
4.50
▶5.02
4.85
Team ERA
4.17
▶3.73
1.43
WHIP
1.31
▶1.16
7.6
K / 9
8.5
▶9.1
The One modelEdge
Wed, Aug 12KC
Royals
61-79
vs63.8%LAD
LAD★
Dodgers
86-62
KC 36.2%win prob63.8% LAD
LAD 1548 · KC 1471Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
