Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at SEA?

The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

CHI

12-20

PregameMon, 10:00 PM EDTUSA Net

SEA

6-28

ATS/SEA -1.5O/U/179.5ML/SEA-112

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Recent form

5-5

CHI +1.6 vs SEA -7.0 margin

CHI brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Model rank

+18.0

SEA Elo vs CHI Elo

CHI owns the cleaner matchup rating, forcing SEA uphill early today again.

WNBAMon, Aug 108/10 - 10:00 PM EDTSeriesCHI leads series 1-0VegasSEA -1.5

Preview · WNBA

hicago Sky visit Seattle Storm Monday at 8/10 - 10:00 PM EDT. CHI is 3-3 in their last 6.

Vegas opened SEA as a 1.5-point favorite with the total at 179.5. SEA's moneyline implies a 53% break-even, CHI the inverse.

For bettors: the SEA side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 179.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Line just movedTotal ↘ 1.0pt over 6.3hjust now

Updated 0s ago

Team stats

CHI

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

FG %

Season series

CHI leads series 1-0

Jul 15

SEA90@

CHI95

Aug 11

CHI@

SEAtoday

Aug 16

CHI@

SEAupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SEA -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

179.5

High-scoring · +14.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.3h

Moneyline

CHI-10852%

SEA-11253%

8· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗

Line movement · 108 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

179.5

-2.0 since open

Scouting report

CHI @ SEA

8/10 - 10:00 PM EDT

StorylineSEA lost 11 in a row.

Rest going in

CHIStandard

2 days

last game Aug 8

SEAStandard

2 days

last game Aug 8

Model edge vs market

Lean only

Spread

Market

SEA -1.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Total

Market

179.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

SEA -112

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

CHImetricSEA

12-20

Record

6-28

Conf rank

-1.7

Pt diff

-5.6

Streak

L11

5-5

Last 10

0-10

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Betting line

SEA -1.5·O/U 179.5·CHI -108/SEA -112

DraftKings · via ESPN

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Scouting report · pre-game

SEA vs CHI.

SEA has dropped 11 straight; CHI is 5-5 over its last 10.

54.4%

model · SEA win prob

Recent form

SEA0–10-7.0
CHI5–5+1.6

Situational

SEA2d rest
CHI2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. SEA has 4 straight road games; CHI has 0.

Model angle

+4.1ppon SEA

SEA's edge is mostly venue split plus head to head. Recent form is the main caution flag.

▼Recent form-1.2pp
▼Line steam-1.1pp
▲Venue split+0.7pp

Players to watch

Dominique MalongaSEA
17.7points · ±6.7
Dominique Malonga · 17.7 pts · last-10 18.6 vs season 16.4.
Sydney TaylorCHI
17.5points · ±6.0
Sydney Taylor · 17.5 pts · last-10 19.3 vs season 14.7.
Flau'jae JohnsonSEA
15.2points · ±7.1
Flau'jae Johnson · 15.2 pts · last-10 16.1 vs season 13.9.

Head-to-head · 3-1 · last 4

SEA is 3-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2025-07-25SEA @ CHI95–57
2025-08-20SEA @ CHI94–88
2025-08-31CHI @ SEA69–79
2026-07-15SEA @ CHI90–95

Line move

open -125→-112toward CHI

The market has moved 2.7pp toward the away side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.2%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
57.4%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
54.7%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
52.4%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.05 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like SEA.

SEA's edge is mostly venue split plus head to head. Recent form is the main caution flag.

+4.1

pp edge · SEA

-2.81

CLV pp · steam

Pass

50.7%

±8.7pp band

Pass — negative expected value (-2.1pp edge).

Edge

+0.3pp

-3.8pp post-cal

Kelly

—

no stake

Decimal

1.89

-2.1pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 4.1pp · SEA over CHI

▼
Recent form70% conf
CHI's recent form is stronger over the last 5.
-1.2pp
▼
Line steam76% conf
The market moved 2.8pp away from SEA since open.
-1.1pp
▲
Venue split66% conf
SEA's venue form is 13.9pp stronger in the recent sample.
+0.7pp
▼
Model confidence68% conf
SEA is a lean, so the confidence layer stays modest.
-0.5pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
SEA has taken 2 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.2pp

Open price

-125

Close price

-112

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

50.4%

Market faded the model hard

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at SEA?: The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

SEA vs CHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 100 high confidence

Points

Dominique MalongaSEA
17.7± 6.7high
Sydney TaylorCHI
17.5± 6.0high
Rickea JacksonCHI
16.0± 11.0low

Rebounds

Dominique MalongaSEA
10.1± 2.8high
Kamilla CardosoCHI
8.6± 3.3high
Azura StevensCHI
7.2± 3.0high

Assists

Natasha CloudCHI
5.4± 2.1high
Courtney VanderslootCHI
5.1± 2.7medium
Natisha HiedemanSEA
5.0± 2.5high

Blocks

Kamilla CardosoCHI
1.3± 0.6high
Dominique MalongaSEA
1.3± 1.2high
Rickea JacksonCHI
1.2± 1.6low

Steals

Flau'jae JohnsonSEA
1.8± 1.2high
Courtney VanderslootCHI
1.4± 1.2medium
Azura StevensCHI
1.2± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Chicago SkySeattle Storm

Elsewhere in the WNBA

TempoDream8/10 - 8:00 PM EDT

Data via ESPN · wehoop

Chicago Sky at Seattle Storm

SEA vs CHI.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like SEA.

SEA vs CHI.