Park factor
98 total idx
Busch Stadium run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals
PHI
PHI
41-35
PregameWed, 2:15 PM EDT
STL
STL
40-34
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketBusch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Home starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.
Head to head
SeriesSeries starts 8/10
TypeRegular Season Series
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
49.3%
ensemble · PHI favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
STL vs PHI.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
126
projections · 83 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Cristopher SanchezPHI7.7± 3.3medium
- Jesus LuzardoPHI6.4± 2.8medium
- Zack WheelerPHI6.2± 2.6low
Hits
- Kyle SchwarberPHI1.2± 1.3high
- JJ WetherholtSTL1.2± 1.4high
- Blaze JordanSTL1.1± 1.1low
Total bases
- Kyle SchwarberPHI2.6± 3.9high
- Alec BurlesonSTL2.1± 1.6high
- Blaze JordanSTL2.0± 3.1low
RBIs
- Blaze JordanSTL0.9± 1.5low
- Jordan WalkerSTL0.9± 1.4high
- Alec BohmPHI0.8± 1.3high
Earned runs
- Aaron NolaPHI3.3± 2.2medium
- Matthew LiberatoreSTL3.0± 1.9medium
- Kyle LeahySTL2.5± 2.2low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
PHI
league avg
STL
.694
OPS
.719
▶.730
.299
OBP
.319
▶.328
4.25
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.65
4.09
Team ERA
◀
4.19
4.29
1.30
WHIP
◀
1.31
1.35
9.5
K / 9
◀
8.5
7.7
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant