Recent form
4-6
MIN -0.2 vs BAL -1.3 margin
MIN brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins
BAL
BAL
57-62
PregameWed, 1:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
MIN
MIN
59-61
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketTarget Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Shane Baz
SP · #34
4-11
W-L
3.76
ERA
1.32
WHIP
120
K
136.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@TEXL(4-11)8.0 IP2 ER9 K
vsPHIL(4-10)6.1 IP1 ER4 K
vsATL-4.1 IP1 ER2 K
Home starter
Zebby Matthews
SP · #52
5-8
W-L
5.23
ERA
1.34
WHIP
73
K
86.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@MILW(5-8)5.0 IP3 ER4 K
@SEA-5.0 IP3 ER10 K
vsATHL(4-8)6.0 IP2 ER1 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob37% / 63%
LeanHome · 13pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesMIN leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
MIN vs BAL.
MIN is 4-6 recently; BAL is 4-6.
62.9%
model · MIN win prob
Recent form
- MIN4–6-0.2
- BAL4–6-1.3
Situational
- MIN2d rest
- BAL2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. MIN has 0 straight road games; BAL has 4.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.1pp
Players to watch
- Taj BradleyMIN6.7strikeouts · ±2.9
Taj Bradley · 6.7 K · last-10 6.8 vs season 6.4.
- Kyle BradishBAL5.3strikeouts · ±3.0
Kyle Bradish · 5.3 K · last-10 5.3 vs season 5.3.
- Shane BazBAL5.3strikeouts · ±3.0
Shane Baz · 5.3 K · last-10 5.4 vs season 5.2.
Head-to-head · 1-0 · last 1
MIN is 1-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-10BAL @ MIN5–9
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
62.4%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
63.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
61.2%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
63.1%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.87 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
94% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIN vs BAL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
127
projections · 105 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Taj BradleyMIN6.7± 2.9high
- Connor PrielippMIN5.7± 2.5medium
- Kyle BradishBAL5.3± 3.0high
Hits
- Royce LewisMIN1.2± 1.1high
- Pete AlonsoBAL1.0± 0.9high
- Josh BellMIN1.0± 1.3high
Total bases
- Royce LewisMIN2.3± 1.8high
- Coby MayoBAL1.9± 2.3high
- Pete AlonsoBAL1.9± 2.9high
RBIs
- Pete AlonsoBAL0.7± 1.4high
- Royce LewisMIN0.7± 1.0high
- Coby MayoBAL0.6± 1.1high
Earned runs
- Zebby MatthewsMIN3.5± 2.6medium
- Dean KremerMIN3.4± 3.4low
- Connor PrielippMIN3.0± 1.6medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
BAL
league avg
MIN
.712
OPS
.719
▶.726
.319
OBP
.318
.319
4.48
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.68
4.24
Team ERA
◀
4.17
4.59
1.34
WHIP
◀
1.31
1.38
8.0
K / 9
8.5
▶8.4
The One modelEdge
Wed, Aug 12BAL
Orioles
61-84
vs62.8%MIN
MIN★
Twins
81-67
BAL 37.2%win prob62.8% MIN
MIN 1522 · BAL 1454Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
