Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at LAA?

The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 17, 2026

FINAL+1DET

DET

45-52

LAA

38-60

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California

29,536 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAA spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.5 · -0.5

LAA no-vig %

49.5%

open 51.0% · -1.5

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.4%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
45.2%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
42.4%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
42.1%
P(LAA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.40 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.96

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-105

Close price

-114

Open no-vig

49.0%

Close no-vig

51.0%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at LAA?: The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+23.7pp

best edge · DET · DraftKings

DET

★ best

+173DraftKings

edge +23.7pp · implied 34.4%

LAA

no live price

Book	DET	LAA	Best edge
DraftKings	+173★	-231	+23.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

LAA vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 97 high confidence

Strikeouts

Reid DetmersLAA
6.4± 2.0high
Troy MeltonDET
5.6± 3.1low
Casey MizeDET
5.1± 2.4medium

Hits

Max ClarkDET
2.0± 1.4low
Eduardo ValenciaDET
1.3± 1.8low
Kevin McGonigleDET
1.3± 1.4high

Total bases

Max ClarkDET
3.7± 3.1low
Eduardo ValenciaDET
2.6± 4.3low
Kevin McGonigleDET
1.8± 2.0high

RBIs

Eduardo ValenciaDET
1.0± 2.2low
Max ClarkDET
1.0± 1.4low
Hao-Yu LeeDET
0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

Grayson RodriguezLAA
3.9± 3.0low
Framber ValdezDET
2.6± 2.0high
Reid DetmersLAA
2.3± 2.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

DET

league avg

LAA

.727

OPS

◀

.719

.695

.318

OBP

◀

.318

.313

4.51

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.20

3.59

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.49

1.21

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.37

8.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

DET 2 · LAA 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked DET +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
DET	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2
LAA	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. VierlingCF	.211	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
K. McGonigleSS	.280	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. DinglerC	.262	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
S. Torkelson1B	.206	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. GreeneLF	.288	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
E. ValenciaC	.417	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. Lee2B	.255	4	0	1	2	0	0	2
B. MalgeriRF	.280	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
Z. McKinstry2B	.195	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. OutmanCF	.148	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
K. CarpenterRF	.220	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Keith3B	.244	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. RogersC	.174	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	2	6	2	0	1	12

Player

.211

.280

.262

.206

.288

.417

.255

.280

.195

.148

.220

.244

.174

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. MeltonSP	5.2	4	1	1	4	9	94
K. MonteroSP	3.1	1	0	0	0	5	43
Team	9.0	5	1	1	4	14	137

Player

T. MeltonSP

5.2

K. MonteroSP

3.1

Team

9.0

137

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. NetoSS	.237	4	1	2	0	0	0	2
M. TroutCF	.237	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
N. Schanuel1B	.273	2	0	0	0	0	2	1
J. SolerDH	.209	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
J. LoweLF	.205	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
J. AdellRF	.242	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
V. Grissom2B	.251	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
D. Guzman3B	.252	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
L. O'HoppeC	.209	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. MecklerLF	.307	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. SiriCF	.264	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
O. Peraza2B	.238	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	1	5	1	0	4	14

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. DetmersSP	6.0	4	0	0	0	7	86
R. ZeferjahnRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	12
S. BachmanRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	23
K. YatesRP	0.2	1	2	2	1	0	20
S. Natera Jr.RP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	3
Team	9.0	6	2	2	1	12	144

Team

DET

LAA

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

LAA vs DET.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

LAA vs DET.

3 sub-models, blended.