MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Manzardo doubled to right, DeLauter scored. → win prob 83→89% CLE

TOP 7TH+5CLE

CLE

36-29

TEX

31-32

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 981 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

MLB · At bat

Top 72-20 outs

Pitcher· TEX

C. Quantrill

1.2 IP, 2 K, 0 ER

Batter· CLE

K. Manzardo

1-1, 1 RBI

LastPitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

Live · model leanTop 7thPolls every 30s

75.8%

CLE wins · current

Pre-game: 57.5% CLE

CLE 5 · 0 TEX

CLE +5

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 6

away leadsTEX leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingCLETop 5th Inning · 3-0
+9pp→ 83% WP
DeLauter · singled to right, Ramírez scored.
SwingCLETop 5th Inning · 2-0
+13pp→ 73% WP
Rocchio · homered to right (387 feet).
Lead flipCLETop 4th Inning · 1-0
+15pp→ 60% WP
Ram · írez homered to right center (389 feet).
SwingCLETop 2nd Inning · 0-0
+9pp→ 49% WP
Manzardo · walked.

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 8.91

T. Bibee

0-7 · 4.57 ERA

J. Leiter

3-4 · 4.34 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

TEX spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

TEX no-vig %

50.4%

open 50.0% · +0.4

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TEX favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.5%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
49.2%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.5%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
49.9%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.29 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

1.0%

-48.2ppvs pre-game · CLE favored

Leverage

±2.4

pp · next play

low · 4/100

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+15.6pp

best edge · CLE · DraftKings

CLE

★ best

+124DraftKings

edge +15.6pp · implied 41.9%

TEX

no live price

Book	CLE	TEX	Best edge
DraftKings	+124★	-162	+15.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

TEX vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.0± 3.6low
Jacob deGromTEX
6.5± 3.7low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.2± 2.5low

Hits

Josh JungTEX
1.3± 0.8high
Jose RamirezCLE
1.1± 1.0high
Travis BazzanaCLE
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Joc PedersonTEX
2.3± 2.9high
Travis BazzanaCLE
2.1± 2.5high
Josh JungTEX
2.1± 1.9high

RBIs

Joc PedersonTEX
0.9± 1.0high
Jose RamirezCLE
0.7± 0.8high
Ezequiel DuranTEX
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Tanner BibeeCLE
2.9± 3.6low
Slade CecconiCLE
2.8± 2.5low
Jack LeiterTEX
2.8± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelLean

● Live

CLE★

Guardians

41-34

vs57.5%CLE

TEX

Rangers

34-35

CLE 57.5%win prob42.5% TEX

CLE 1531 · TEX 1501Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
T. Bazzana2B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1.4
J. Ramirez3B	1-2	2	2	1	1	1	2	0	23.3
C. DeLauterRF	1-4	4	1	1	1	0	0	2	11.9
K. Manzardo1B	1-1	1	1	1	1	0	2	0	14.9
D. SchneemannCF	2-3	3	0	2	1	0	0	0	0.3
A. MartinezLF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.9
S. KwanCF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0
P. BaileyC	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	3.5
B. RocchioSS	2-3	3	1	2	1	1	0	0	12.0
Team	7-25	25	5	7	5	2	4	3	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

H-AB

RBI

WP±

T. Bazzana2B

0-4

1.4

J. Ramirez3B

1-2

23.3

C. DeLauterRF

1-4

11.9

K. Manzardo1B

1-1

14.9

D. SchneemannCF

2-3

0.3

A. MartinezLF

0-2

6.9

S. KwanCF

0-3

0.0

P. BaileyC

0-3

3.5

B. RocchioSS

2-3

12.0

Team

7-25

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
T. BibeeSP	6.0	3	0	0	1	3	0	8.6
Team	6.0	3	0	0	1	3	0	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

WP±

T. BibeeSP

6.0

8.6

Team

6.0

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
J. PedersonDH	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	3.0
C. SeagerSS	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.5
J. Jung3B	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	1.9
B. NimmoRF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	3.9
W. LangfordLF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.6
E. Duran2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.6
J. Burger1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	2.2
E. CarterCF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	1.9
K. HigashiokaC	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.6
Team	3-19	19	0	3	0	0	1	3	—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
J. LeiterSP	4.2	6	5	5	3	2	2	43.4
C. QuantrillRP	1.2	1	0	0	1	2	0	0.3
Team	6.0	7	5	5	4	3	2	—

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	R
CLE	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	5
TEX	0	0	0	0	0	0	—	0

Team

CLE

TEX

—