Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in IND at NY?

The model favors NY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+8NY

IND

5-5

7583

7-4

WNBASat, Jun 6FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasNY -3.5

IND · top performer

Monique Billings

F · #25

13.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NY · top performer

Breanna Stewart

F · #30

27.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowIND ↔ NY

Biggest swing: 28pp · 4th Quarter · 10:00

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BillingsF · #25	35	15	6-7	1-2	2-6	0	8	1
A. BostonC · #7	29	13	6-15	1-3	—	-14	9	1
K. MitchellG · #0	32	21	7-21	2-8	5-7	-8	7	2
L. HullG · #10	19	5	2-2	1-1	—	+5	6	1
C. ClarkG · #22	34	10	4-14	2-6	—	+3	7	9
Bench
M. Hines-AllenF · #2	13	3	1-4	1-2	—	-1	1	0
M. TimpsonF · #21	3	0	—	—	—	-1	0	0
S. CunninghamG · #8	17	2	1-2	0-1	—	-18	1	2
R. JohnsonG · #3	17	6	2-7	0-2	2-2	-6	2	4
Team		75	29-72	8-25	9-15		41	20
DNP: G. VanSlooten, D. Dantas, T. Harris, J. Pissott, B. Hall

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. StewartF · #30	33	30	6-15	0-2	18-21	+17	8	2
L. FiebichF · #13	30	4	1-7	0-3	2-2	+15	4	2
J. JonesC · #35	28	8	2-6	0-1	4-7	+7	12	4
M. JohannesG · #23	25	8	3-7	2-5	—	+2	4	0
P. AstierG · #18	24	12	4-6	—	4-4	+8	3	3
Bench
S. SaballyF · #0	22	13	5-11	0-4	3-4	+10	5	1
H. XuC · #21	8	2	1-4	0-1	—	-6	4	1
R. GardnerG · #7	13	4	1-3	—	2-2	-6	4	1
B. Laney-HamiltonG · #44	12	2	1-5	—	—	-2	1	0
M. FauthouxG · #4	5	0	0-2	0-2	—	-5	2	0
Team		83	24-66	2-18	33-40		47	14
DNP: R. Carrera, R. Allen

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

IND

Away

Stat

Home

29-72

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

24-66

FG %

8-25

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

2-18

9-15

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

33-40

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jun 7

IND75@

NY83today

Jul 19

NY88@

IND108

Aug 11

NY@

INDupcoming

Aug 22

IND@

NYupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -3.5

Between — and 5

1.0pt· 6.3h

Total

174.5

High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg

Moneyline

IND+13043%

NY-15561%

13· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -3.5↗SpreadBet NY -3.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

+1.0 since open

Total

174.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NY beat IND 83-75. B. Stewart paced them with 30 PTS, 8 REB, 2 AST. NY outscored the other side 29-18 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

NY vs IND

Starters vs bench

production by unit

INDstarters 85% of pts

Starters(5)

64 PTS · 37 REB · 14 AST

GS 41

Bench(4)

11 PTS · 4 REB · 6 AST

GS 6

NYstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

62 PTS · 31 REB · 11 AST

GS 55

Bench(5)

21 PTS · 16 REB · 3 AST

GS 10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NY4th Quarter · 10:00 · 57-55

+28pp→ 51% WP

Aliyah Boston · technical foul

IND4th Quarter · 5:35 · 66-62

+13pp→ 69% WP

Kelsey Mitchell · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Raven Johnson assists)

NY4th Quarter · 3:05 · 68-70

+18pp→ 72% WP

shot clock turnover

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
IND	25	15	17	18	75
NY	21	16	17	29	83

Period scoring

IND won 1 · NY won 2

Boston 6

Johannes 8

Mitchell 5

Sabally 6

Billings 6

Stewart 8

Mitchell 9

Stewart 15

IND

Shooting comparison

IND

40%

29-72

36%

24-66

32%

8-25

3PT

11%

2-18

60%

9-15

83%

33-40

Play-by-play · 447 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 75·NY 83
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 75·NY 83
Q4·16.8
Aliyah Boston makes 26-foot three point jumper (Caitlin Clark assists)
·
IND 75·NY 83
Q4·23.8
Pauline Astier makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 72·NY 83
Q4·23.8
Pauline Astier makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 72·NY 82
Q4·23.8
Kelsey Mitchell personal take foul
IND 72·NY 81
Q4·27.7
Kelsey Mitchell makes driving layup
IND 72·NY 81
Q4·36.6
Breanna Stewart makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 70·NY 81
Q4·36.6
Breanna Stewart makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 70·NY 80
Q4·36.6
Lexie Hull personal take foul
IND 70·NY 79
Q4·40.1
Jonquel Jones defensive rebound
IND 70·NY 79
Q4·41.7
Kelsey Mitchell misses driving layup
IND 70·NY 79
+0.5pp
Q4·48.5
Lexie Hull defensive rebound
IND 70·NY 79
Q4·50.9
Breanna Stewart misses free throw 2 of 2
IND 70·NY 79
−0.6pp
Q4·50.9
Lexie Hull enters the game for Sophie Cunningham
·
IND 70·NY 79
Q4·50.9
Breanna Stewart makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 70·NY 79
Q4·50.9
Kelsey Mitchell personal take foul
IND 70·NY 78
+0.6pp
Q4·55.4
Kelsey Mitchell lost ball turnover (Leonie Fiebich steals)
·
IND 70·NY 78
+1pp
Q4·1:06
Breanna Stewart makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 70·NY 78
−0.8pp
Q4·1:06
Breanna Stewart makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 70·NY 77
Q4·1:06
Kelsey Mitchell personal take foul
IND 70·NY 76
+2pp
Q4·1:14
Pauline Astier defensive rebound
IND 70·NY 76
+1pp
Q4·1:18
Jonquel Jones blocks Caitlin Clark 's 7-foot driving layup
·
IND 70·NY 76
+3pp
Q4·1:26
Fever Full timeout
IND 70·NY 76
Q4·1:26
Pauline Astier makes two point shot
IND 70·NY 76
+4pp
Q4·1:39
Leonie Fiebich defensive rebound
IND 70·NY 74
+2pp
Q4·1:41
Kelsey Mitchell misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
IND 70·NY 74
+6pp
Q4·2:01
Jonquel Jones makes 3-foot layup (Pauline Astier assists)BIG MOMENT
·
IND 70·NY 74
+7pp
Q4·2:12
Leonie Fiebich offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
IND 70·NY 72
+7pp
Q4·2:14
Satou Sabally misses 24-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
IND 70·NY 72
−6pp

Betting line

NY -3.5·O/U 174.5·IND +130/NY -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

ew York Liberty held off Indiana Fever, 83–75.

NY -3.5 cashed (won by 8). Total stayed UNDER 174.5 by 16.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

IND

eFG%

shooting

45.8%

37.9%

TOV%

ball control

15.1%

11.6%

OREB%

offensive glass

20.9%

28.9%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

12.5%

50.0%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Caitlin ClarkIND · G
USG%.30497
Aliyah BostonIND · C
DRB%.28196
Jonquel JonesNY · C
DRB%.27493
Marine JohannesNY · G
eFG%.62993
Pauline AstierNY · G
TS%.65692

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.5%

ensemble · NY favored

Elo Static
60.1%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
58.0%
P(NY win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
61.8%
P(NY win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.56 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.99

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-142

Close price

-162

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

59.3%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in IND at NY?: The model favors NY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+1.5pp

best edge · IND · DraftKings

IND

★ best

+124DraftKings

edge +1.5pp · implied 42.8%

no live price

Book	IND	NY	Best edge
DraftKings	+124★	-148	+1.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

NY vs IND.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 80 high confidence

Points

Kelsey MitchellIND
25.4± 3.6high
Breanna StewartNY
21.7± 8.9high
Caitlin ClarkIND
20.5± 10.4high

Rebounds

Jonquel JonesNY
9.9± 2.7high
Breanna StewartNY
8.8± 2.8high
Aliyah BostonIND
7.7± 2.8high

Assists

Caitlin ClarkIND
7.3± 2.4high
Sabrina IonescuNY
4.4± 2.0medium
Pauline AstierNY
3.6± 1.8high

Blocks

Breanna StewartNY
1.4± 1.1high
Jonquel JonesNY
1.1± 0.8high
Aliyah BostonIND
1.0± 1.0high

Steals

Kelsey MitchellIND
1.4± 1.5high
Aliyah BostonIND
1.3± 1.2high
Leonie FiebichNY
1.2± 1.1medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Indiana FeverNew York Liberty

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop