WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

Live read

Caitlin Clark makes 29-foot three point jumper (Lexie Hull assists) → win prob 56→64% IND

2:26 - 3RD+12IND

IND

5-4

5745

6-4

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 390 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Pauline AstierNY · G
TS%.67898
Marine JohannesNY · G
eFG%.63094
Breanna StewartNY · F
USG%.27892
Jonquel JonesNY · C
DRB%.26892
Kelsey MitchellIND · G
USG%.26388

WNBASat, Jun 62:26 - 3rdVegasNY -3.5

Updated 0s ago

IND · top performer

Monique Billings

F · #25

12.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NY · top performer

Breanna Stewart

F · #30

8.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

WNBA · Box score

2:26 - 3rd

box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	MIN	PTS	FG	3PT	FT	+/-	REB	AST
Starters
M. BillingsF · #25	25	14	6-7	1-2	1-4	+13	8	1
A. BostonC · #7	16	8	4-6	0-2	—	+4	6	1
K. MitchellG · #0	20	12	3-11	1-5	5-7	+12	5	1
L. HullG · #10	14	2	1-1	—	—	+6	4	1
C. ClarkG · #22	24	10	4-12	2-6	—	+13	5	7
Bench
M. Hines-AllenF · #2	11	3	1-4	1-2	—	+6	0	0
M. TimpsonF · #21	2	0	—	—	—	+1	0	0
S. CunninghamG · #8	10	2	1-2	0-1	—	-1	0	2
R. JohnsonG · #3	12	6	2-6	0-2	2-2	+6	2	3
Team		57	22-49	5-20	8-13		30	16
DNP: G. VanSlooten, D. Dantas, T. Harris, J. Pissott, B. Hall

box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	MIN	PTS	FG	3PT	FT	+/-	REB	AST
Starters
B. StewartF · #30	20	11	4-10	0-2	3-4	-3	5	2
L. FiebichF · #13	19	4	1-5	0-1	2-2	-4	2	2
J. JonesC · #35	19	4	1-3	0-1	2-5	-6	4	3
M. JohannesG · #23	20	8	3-7	2-5	—	-3	4	0
P. AstierG · #18	14	4	2-3	—	—	-9	1	2
Bench
S. SaballyF · #0	12	8	4-7	0-3	0-1	-6	2	1
H. XuC · #21	8	2	1-4	0-1	—	-6	4	1
R. GardnerG · #7	8	2	1-3	—	—	-13	3	1
B. Laney-HamiltonG · #44	9	2	1-4	—	—	-5	1	0
M. FauthouxG · #4	5	0	0-2	0-2	—	-5	2	0
Team		45	18-48	2-15	7-12		28	12
DNP: R. Carrera, R. Allen

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

Jun 7

IND@

NYtoday

Jul 19

NY@

INDupcoming

Aug 11

NY@

INDupcoming

Aug 22

IND@

NYupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -3.5

Between — and 5

1.0pt· 6.3h

Total

174.5

High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg

Moneyline

IND+13043%

NY-15561%

13· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -3.5↗SpreadBet NY -3.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

+1.0 since open

Total

174.5

0.0 since open

Live · top performers so far

2:26 - 3rd

Game flowIND ↔ NY

Just happened

Satou Sabally de · fensive rebound

IND

M. Billings

Leading · 2:26 - 3rd · 25 min

14 PTS · 8 REB · 1 AST

On pace: 22 PTS · 13 REB · 2 AST

B. Stewart

Leading · 2:26 - 3rd · 20 min

11 PTS · 5 REB · 2 AST

On pace: 22 PTS · 10 REB · 4 AST

How it's going

IND lead NY 57-45 (2:26 - 3rd). M. Billings led with 14 PTS, 8 REB, 1 AST. IND have outscored the other side 17-8 in the 3rd quarter.

Win probability

NY vs IND

Starters vs bench

production by unit

INDstarters 81% of pts

Starters(5)

46 PTS · 28 REB · 11 AST

GS 38

Bench(4)

11 PTS · 2 REB · 5 AST

GS 8

NYstarters 69% of pts

Starters(5)

31 PTS · 16 REB · 9 AST

GS 21

Bench(5)

14 PTS · 12 REB · 3 AST

GS 5

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

IND2nd Quarter · 5:32 · 31-27

+8pp→ 54% WP

Caitlin Clark · makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (Kelsey Mitchell assists)

NY2nd Quarter · 3.0 · 40-36

+8pp→ 46% WP

Leonie Fiebich · makes free throw 1 of 2

IND3rd Quarter · 8:52 · 43-37

+8pp→ 64% WP

Caitlin Clark · makes 29-foot three point jumper (Lexie Hull assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
IND	25	15	17	57
NY	21	16	8	45

Period scoring

IND won 2 · NY won 1

Boston 6

Johannes 8

Mitchell 5

Sabally 6

Billings 6

Stewart 4

IND

Shooting comparison

IND

45%

22-49

38%

18-48

25%

5-20

3PT

13%

2-15

62%

8-13

58%

7-12

Play-by-play · 291 plays

period

event

player

Q3·2:31
Satou Sabally defensive rebound
IND 57·NY 45
+0.5pp
Q3·2:34
Myisha Hines-Allen misses 25-foot three point jumper
·
IND 57·NY 45
+1pp
Q3·2:59
Betnijah Laney-Hamilton offensive foul turnover
IND 57·NY 45
Q3·2:59
Betnijah Laney-Hamilton offensive foul
IND 57·NY 45
−3pp
Q3·3:05
Sophie Cunningham lost ball turnover (Breanna Stewart steals)
·
IND 57·NY 45
Q3·3:08
Sophie Cunningham vs. Breanna Stewart (Betnijah Laney-Hamilton gains possession)
· ·
IND 57·NY 45
+2pp
Q3·3:08
Makayla Timpson enters the game for Monique Billings
·
IND 57·NY 45
Q3·3:08
Leonie Fiebich enters the game for Jonquel Jones
·
IND 57·NY 45
Q3·3:17
Fever defensive team rebound
IND 57·NY 45
−0.6pp
Q3·3:17
Caitlin Clark blocks Rebekah Gardner 's 4-foot driving layup
·
IND 57·NY 45
−2pp
Q3·3:27
Caitlin Clark makes driving layup (Sophie Cunningham assists)
·
IND 57·NY 45
−3pp
Q3·3:40
Caitlin Clark defensive rebound
IND 55·NY 45
−0.6pp
Q3·3:42
Betnijah Laney-Hamilton misses two point shot
IND 55·NY 45
−2pp
Q3·3:50
Jonquel Jones defensive rebound
IND 55·NY 45
+0.5pp
Q3·3:53
Caitlin Clark misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
IND 55·NY 45
+2pp
Q3·4:07
Satou Sabally out of bounds lost ball turnover
IND 55·NY 45
−3pp
Q3·4:20
Raven Johnson makes 8-foot pullup jump shot (Caitlin Clark assists)
·
IND 55·NY 45
−4pp
Q3·4:39
Sophie Cunningham enters the game for Lexie Hull
·
IND 53·NY 45
Q3·4:39
Rebekah Gardner enters the game for Marine Johannes
·
IND 53·NY 45
Q3·4:39
Fever Full timeout
IND 53·NY 45
Q3·4:39
Satou Sabally makes running layup (Breanna Stewart assists)
·
IND 53·NY 45
+4pp
Q3·4:44
Breanna Stewart defensive rebound
IND 53·NY 43
+0.6pp
Q3·4:46
Raven Johnson misses 23-foot three point jumper
IND 53·NY 43
+1pp
Q3·5:02
Marine Johannes bad pass turnover (Lexie Hull steals)
·
IND 53·NY 43
−3pp
Q3·5:16
Raven Johnson enters the game for Kelsey Mitchell
·
IND 53·NY 43
Q3·5:16
Satou Sabally enters the game for Leonie Fiebich
·
IND 53·NY 43
Q3·5:16
Myisha Hines-Allen personal foul
·
IND 53·NY 43
−0.6pp
Q3·5:25
Myisha Hines-Allen enters the game for Aliyah Boston
· ·
IND 53·NY 43
Q3·5:25
Kelsey Mitchell out of bounds bad pass turnover
IND 53·NY 43
+3pp
Q3·5:42
Breanna Stewart makes 5-foot layup (Leonie Fiebich assists)
·
IND 53·NY 43
+2pp

Team stats

IND

Away

Stat

Home

22-49

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

18-48

FG %

5-20

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

2-15

8-13

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

7-12

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

NY -3.5·O/U 174.5·IND +130/NY -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

Live · model lean2:26 - 3rdPolls every 30s

69.1%

IND wins · current

Pre-game: 53.4% IND

IND 57 · 45 NY

IND +12

Live momentum · cumulative diff

away leadsNY leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingIND3rd Quarter · 8:52 · 43-37
+8pp→ 64% WP
Caitlin Clark · makes 29-foot three point jumper (Lexie Hull assists)
SwingNY2nd Quarter · 3.0 · 40-36
+8pp→ 46% WP
Leonie Fiebich · makes free throw 1 of 2
Lead flipIND2nd Quarter · 5:32 · 31-27
+8pp→ 54% WP
Caitlin Clark · makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (Kelsey Mitchell assists)
Lead flipIND1st Quarter · 1:25 · 23-19
+8pp→ 52% WP
Myisha Hines-Allen · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Raven Johnson assists)
SwingNY1st Quarter · 3:13 · 15-15
+7pp→ 59% WP
Raven Johnson · enters the game for Kelsey Mitchell

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

45.7%

ensemble · IND favored

Elo Static
58.1%
P(NY win)
31%
weight
Elo Recent
57.9%
P(NY win)
35%
weight
Pace Efficiency
55.8%
P(NY win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.04 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

10.6%

-47.5ppvs pre-game · IND favored

Leverage

±6.2

pp · next play

medium · 39/100

One swing game

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.99

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-142

Close price

-162

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

59.3%

Market steamed in our direction

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+10.6pp

best edge · IND · DraftKings

IND

★ best

+124DraftKings

edge +10.6pp · implied 42.8%

no live price

Book	IND	NY	Best edge
DraftKings	+124★	-148	+10.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

NY vs IND.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

110

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

Kelsey MitchellIND
20.3± 6.5low
Caitlin ClarkIND
18.7± 9.5low
Breanna StewartNY
18.2± 9.0low

Rebounds

Jonquel JonesNY
9.0± 4.5low
Breanna StewartNY
8.4± 2.1low
Aliyah BostonIND
6.7± 5.6low

Assists

Caitlin ClarkIND
7.2± 3.1low
Marine JohannesNY
4.0± 4.1low
Pauline AstierNY
3.7± 2.5low

Blocks

Jonquel JonesNY
1.2± 1.7low
Breanna StewartNY
1.0± 1.6low
Aliyah BostonIND
0.9± 1.4low

Steals

Marine JohannesNY
1.4± 1.4low
Caitlin ClarkIND
1.1± 1.3low
Breanna StewartNY
1.0± 1.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team rate stats

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

IND

league avg

45.2%

FG%

44.4

45.6%

32.4%

3PT %

32.9

▶

36.2%

90.8

PPG

◀

84.8

87.6

21.4

Assists / G

18.0

▶

21.9

14.7

Turnovers / G

13.0

▶

14.0

Data via ESPN · wehoop