NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

2:54 - 3RD+1VGK

CAR

53-22-7

VGK

39-26-17

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE

Jack EichelVGK · C
DIST MI66.099+
Shea TheodoreVGK · D
SKATE MPH23.399
Sebastian AhoCAR · C
DIST MI51.098
Sean WalkerCAR · D
SKATE MPH22.998
Noah HanifinVGK · D
DIST MI61.198

NHLSat, Jun 62:54 - 3rdSeriesVGK wins series 2-0VegasCAR -108

Updated 0s ago

CAR · top performer

Sebastian Aho

C · #20

1Points

—

SOG

VGK · top performer

Mitch Marner

RW · #93

4Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box score

2:54 - 3rd

forwards box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

defenses box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

skaters box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

goalies box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

forwards box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

defenses box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

skaters box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

goalies box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Playoff series

Series tied 1-1

Jun 3

VGK5@

CAR4

Jun 5

VGK3@

CAR4

Jun 7

CAR@

VGKtoday

Jun 10

CAR@

VGKupcoming

Jun 12

VGK@

CARupcoming

Jun 15

CAR@

VGKupcoming

Jun 18

VGK@

CARupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CAR-10852%

VGK-11253%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it's going

VGK lead CAR 4-3 (2:54 - 3rd).

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CAR	0	0	3	3
VGK	0	4	0	4

Period scoring

CAR won 1 · VGK won 1

CAR

VGK

Play-by-play · 376 plays

period

event

player

3rd·17:05
Shea Theodore Delaying Game - Puck over glass
CAR 3·VGK 4
3rd·17:05
Puck in Crowd
CAR 3·VGK 4
3rd·16:28
Sean Walker Slap Shot Hit Right Post
·
CAR 3·VGK 4
3rd·16:11
Nikolaj Ehlers Tip-In Above Crossbar
·
CAR 3·VGK 4
3rd·16:09
Sean Walker shot blocked by Nic Dowd
·
CAR 3·VGK 4
3rd·15:27
Jack Eichel faceoff won against Sebastian Aho
·
CAR 3·VGK 4
3rd·15:27
Goalie Stopped
CAR 3·VGK 4
3rd·15:25
Taylor Hall Wrist Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
CAR 3·VGK 4
3rd·14:57
Logan Stankoven Wrist Shot High and Wide Left
·
CAR 3·VGK 4
3rd·14:36
William Karlsson Snap Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
CAR 3·VGK 4
3rd·14:29
Alexander Nikishin hit William Karlsson
·
CAR 3·VGK 4
3rd·14:29
Alexander Nikishin hit William Karlsson
·
CAR 3·VGK 4
3rd·14:23
Brett Howden Snap Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
CAR 3·VGK 4
3rd·14:20
Mitch Marner Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
CAR 3·VGK 4
3rd·14:08
William Karlsson faceoff won against Logan Stankoven
·
CAR 3·VGK 4
3rd·14:08
Goalie Stopped
CAR 3·VGK 4
3rd·14:06
Alexander Nikishin Wrist Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
CAR 3·VGK 4
3rd·14:04
Logan Stankoven faceoff won against William Karlsson
·
CAR 3·VGK 4
3rd·14:04
Puck Frozen - Goalie
CAR 3·VGK 4
3rd·14:03
Jordan Staal hit Mark Stone
·
CAR 3·VGK 4
3rd·13:41
Shea Theodore Slap Shot Wide Right
·
CAR 3·VGK 4
3rd·13:18
Jack Eichel Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
CAR 3·VGK 4
3rd·13:04
Sebastian Aho faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
CAR 3·VGK 4
3rd·13:04
Puck in Crowd
CAR 3·VGK 4
3rd·12:59
Sebastian Aho faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
CAR 3·VGK 4
3rd·12:59
Goalie Stopped
CAR 3·VGK 4
3rd·12:58
Jack Eichel Snap Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
CAR 3·VGK 4
3rd·12:26
Jack Eichel faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 3·VGK 4
3rd·12:26
Off-side
CAR 3·VGK 4
3rd·12:07
Jack Eichel faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 3·VGK 4

Team stats

CAR

Away

Stat

VGK

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 5.5·CAR -108/VGK -112

DraftKings · via ESPN

Live · model lean2:54 - 3rdPolls every 30s

62.3%

VGK wins · current

Pre-game: 53.4% VGK

CAR 3 · 4 VGK

VGK +1

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.4%

ensemble · VGK favored

Elo Static
55.3%
P(VGK win)
67%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
55.3%
P(VGK win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
55.3%
P(VGK win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

91.7%

+36.4ppvs pre-game · VGK favored

Leverage

±6.8

pp · next play

medium · 43/100

1-point game · final 3 minutes

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-112

Close price

-112

Open no-vig

50.4%

Close no-vig

50.4%

Line barely moved

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.0pp

best edge · VGK · DraftKings

CAR

no live price

VGK

★ best

-112DraftKings

edge +3.0pp · implied 50.4%

Book	CAR	VGK	Best edge
DraftKings	-108	-112★	+3.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props