Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at VGK?

The model favors VGK, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1VGK

CAR

53-22-7

VGK

39-26-17

NHLSat, Jun 6FinalSeriesVGK wins series 2-0VegasCAR -108

CAR · top performer

Jordan Staal

C · #11

2Points

—

SOG

VGK · top performer

Mitch Marner

RW · #93

4Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/2OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	0	2	0	0	1	1	0	24:51
J. BlakeRW · #53	0	1	-1	2	2	1	0	24:10
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	6:51
N. EhlersLW · #27	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	24:36
T. HallLW · #71	1	0	0	3	2	1	0	22:57
M. JankowskiLW · #77	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	15:10
S. JarvisC · #24	0	1	1	1	3	0	2	27:22
J. MartinookLW · #48	1	0	0	3	4	1	0	20:41
E. RobinsonLW · #50	0	1	0	1	2	1	0	18:44
J. StaalC · #11	1	1	1	5	3	0	0	23:16
L. StankovenC · #22	0	1	-1	0	4	0	0	23:50
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	1	0	-2	3	5	1	0	25:49

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	0	0	1	3	1	4	0	28:15
S. GostisbehereD · #4	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	22:43
K. MillerD · #19	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	33:25
A. NikishinD · #21	0	0	-2	3	5	0	0	19:16
J. SlavinD · #74	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	29:56
S. WalkerD · #26	0	0	0	3	5	1	0	34:20

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BussiG · #32	19	1	18	.947	45:26
F. AndersenG · #31	16	4	12	.750	40:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	0	0	-1	1	7	0	0	23:25
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	17:40
N. DowdC · #26	0	0	-1	1	8	2	0	19:40
J. EichelC · #9	0	1	-1	1	2	4	0	26:43
T. HertlC · #48	1	1	1	2	5	1	0	15:20
B. HowdenC · #21	0	1	2	3	6	1	0	21:31
W. KarlssonC · #71	0	1	3	2	2	1	0	24:09
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	15:49
M. MarnerRW · #93	3	1	3	10	3	0	0	27:00
C. SissonsC · #10	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	17:47
C. SmithRW · #22	0	0	-1	1	14	1	2	19:19
M. StoneRW · #61	0	0	-1	3	4	4	0	27:03

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	0	-1	4	0	2	0	30:56
D. CoghlanD · #52	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	17:38
N. HanifinD · #15	0	0	-1	0	2	2	0	20:53
J. LauzonD · #5	0	0	-1	0	4	6	0	25:08
B. McNabbD · #3	0	2	3	1	1	0	0	35:47
S. TheodoreD · #27	1	1	3	3	1	3	2	39:09

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HartG · #79	33	4	29	.879	85:38

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CAR

Away

Stat

VGK

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

VGK leads series 2-1

Jun 3

VGK5@

CAR4

Jun 5

VGK3@

CAR4

Jun 7

CAR4@

VGK5today

Jun 10

CAR5@

VGK3

Jun 12

VGK2@

CAR4

Jun 15

CAR3@

VGK0

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CAR-10852%

VGK-11253%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VGK beat CAR 5-4. M. Marner led the way — 3 G · 1 A · 10 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	SO	T
CAR	0	0	4	0	0	4
VGK	0	4	0	0	1	5

Period scoring

CAR won 1 · VGK won 2

CAR

VGK

Play-by-play · 526 plays

period

event

player

2nd OT·5:38
Game End
CAR 4·VGK 5
2nd OT·5:38
End of 2nd OT
CAR 4·VGK 5
2nd OT·5:38
Shea Theodore Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Brayden McNabb (8), Brett Howden (4)
· ·
CAR 4·VGK 5
2nd OT·5:26
Alexander Nikishin hit William Karlsson
·
CAR 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·5:05
Mitch Marner shot blocked by Jackson Blake
·
CAR 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·5:04
William Karlsson faceoff won against Sebastian Aho
·
CAR 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·5:04
Icing
CAR 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·4:54
Shayne Gostisbehere hit Keegan Kolesar
·
CAR 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·4:49
Seth Jarvis hit Cole Smith
·
CAR 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·4:41
Jeremy Lauzon hit Seth Jarvis
·
CAR 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·3:45
Mark Jankowski faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
CAR 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·3:45
Puck Frozen - Goalie
CAR 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·3:41
Mark Stone Backhand saved by Brandon Bussi
·
CAR 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·3:26
Logan Stankoven faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
CAR 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·3:26
Puck Frozen - Goalie
CAR 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·3:13
Colton Sissons hit Sean Walker
·
CAR 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·2:58
K'Andre Miller shot blocked by Pavel Dorofeyev
·
CAR 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·2:52
Giveaway by Shea Theodore
CAR 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·2:17
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
CAR 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·2:17
Puck Frozen - Goalie
CAR 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·2:11
Giveaway by Andrei Svechnikov
CAR 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·2:07
Giveaway by Ivan Barbashev
CAR 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·1:37
Takeaway by Brett Howden
CAR 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·1:27
Giveaway by William Karlsson
CAR 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·1:11
K'Andre Miller hit Brett Howden
·
CAR 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·1:11
Dylan Coghlan Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
CAR 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·0:45
Sebastian Aho Snap Shot Above Crossbar
·
CAR 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·0:45
Giveaway by Shea Theodore
CAR 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·0:25
Colton Sissons Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
CAR 4·VGK 4
2nd OT·0:19
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Nic Dowd
·
CAR 4·VGK 4

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 5.5·CAR -108/VGK -112

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

egas Golden Knights held off Carolina Hurricanes, 5–4 in overtime.

VGK +1.5 cashed (CAR lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Mitch Marner · VGK27:241.1868.6%79.8%27:24 TOI · 1.18 iXG · 68.6% CF · 79.8% xGF
Jackson Blake · CAR24:300.7051.0%39.5%24:30 TOI · 0.70 iXG · 51.0% CF · 39.5% xGF
Andrei Svechnikov · CAR26:000.6859.6%60.2%26:00 TOI · 0.68 iXG · 59.6% CF · 60.2% xGF
Jordan Staal · CAR23:300.5861.1%75.5%23:30 TOI · 0.58 iXG · 61.1% CF · 75.5% xGF
Brett Howden · VGK21:540.5756.1%69.7%21:54 TOI · 0.57 iXG · 56.1% CF · 69.7% xGF
Jordan Martinook · CAR21:000.4454.1%46.2%21:00 TOI · 0.44 iXG · 54.1% CF · 46.2% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Brandon Bussi · CAR18–1.947+1.0818–1 · .947 SV% · +1.08 GSAx
Carter Hart · VGK29–4.879-0.1129–4 · .879 SV% · -0.11 GSAx
Frederik Andersen · CAR12–4.750-2.7312–4 · .750 SV% · -2.73 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.8%

ensemble · VGK favored

Elo Static
53.8%
P(VGK win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
53.8%
P(VGK win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
53.8%
P(VGK win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-112

Close price

-112

Open no-vig

50.4%

Close no-vig

50.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at VGK?: The model favors VGK, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.4pp

best edge · VGK · DraftKings

CAR

no live price

VGK

★ best

-112DraftKings

edge +3.4pp · implied 50.4%

Book	CAR	VGK	Best edge
DraftKings	-108	-112★	+3.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.