MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Freeman hit by pitch. → win prob 37→46% COL

BOT 6TH+1MIL

MIL

38-23

COL

24-40

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 982 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

MLB · At bat

Bottom 60-00 outs

Pitcher· MIL

J. Misiorowski

5.0 IP, 5 K, 0 ER

Batter· COL

T. Rumfield

0-1

LastJacob Misiorowski pitches to TJ Rumfield

Live · model leanBot 6thPolls every 30s

61.4%

MIL wins · current

Pre-game: 63.6% MIL

MIL 2 · 1 COL

MIL +1

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 6

away leadsCOL leads

Key moments · live

newest first

ClutchCOLBottom 6th Inning · 2-1
+8pp→ 46% WP
Freeman · hit by pitch.
SwingCOLBottom 5th Inning · 2-1
+10pp→ 27% WP
Karros · doubled to right, Julien scored.
SwingMILTop 2nd Inning · 2-0
+6pp→ 85% WP
Hamilton · homered to center (426 feet).
SwingMILTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+7pp→ 80% WP
Turang · homered to center (444 feet).

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 9.43

J. Misiorowski

6-2 · 1.65 ERA

Z. Agnos

0-0 · 7.78 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 10.5

open O/U 10.5

COL no-vig %

30.5%

open 31.0% · -0.5

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

36.0%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
26.4%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
21.9%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
26.5%
P(COL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.13 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

10.6%

-15.8ppvs pre-game · MIL favored

Leverage

±5.4

pp · next play

medium · 31/100

1-point game · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.81

CLV pp

Open price

-259

Close price

-271

Open no-vig

69.0%

Close no-vig

69.8%

Market came to the model

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+8.8pp

best edge · COL · DraftKings

MIL

no live price

COL

★ best

+246DraftKings

edge +8.8pp · implied 27.6%

Book	MIL	COL	Best edge
DraftKings	-311	+246★	+8.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

COL vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.0± 2.6low
Kyle HarrisonMIL
6.6± 5.5low
Brandon SproatMIL
4.6± 2.0low

Hits

Christian YelichMIL
1.2± 1.2high
Jake McCarthyCOL
1.1± 1.2high
Troy JohnstonCOL
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Hunter GoodmanCOL
2.4± 2.4high
Jackson ChourioMIL
2.1± 2.8high
Jake McCarthyCOL
2.0± 2.4high

RBIs

Jackson ChourioMIL
0.9± 1.4high
Jake BauersMIL
0.9± 1.3high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
4.0± 3.7low
Michael LorenzenCOL
4.0± 3.1low
Brandon SproatMIL
2.8± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelEdge

● Live

MIL★

Brewers

43-24

vs63.6%MIL

COL

Rockies

24-48

MIL 63.6%win prob36.4% COL

MIL 1580 · COL 1377Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
C. YelichDH	.287	3	0	2	0	0	1	0
J. ChourioLF	.284	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. Turang2B	.280	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
W. ContrerasC	.281	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Bauers1B	.277	0	0	0	0	0	3	0
A. Vaughn1B	.316	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. FrelickRF	.228	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. OrtizSS	.187	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. HamiltonSS	.240	3	1	3	1	1	0	0
Team		24	2	7	2	2	5	4

Player

AVG

RBI

.287

.284

.280

.281

.277

.316

.228

.187

.240

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. MisiorowskiSP	5.0	3	1	0	1	5	64
Team	5.0	3	1	0	1	5	64

Player

J. MisiorowskiSP

5.0

Team

5.0

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. McCarthyCF	.287	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. FreemanRF	.273	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. Rumfield1B	.276	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
H. GoodmanC	.243	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. JohnstonRF	.314	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
E. TovarSS	.210	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. Julien2B	.219	2	1	0	0	0	0	1
K. Karros3B	.225	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
B. SullivanC	.188	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		18	1	3	1	0	1	5