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END 4TH+1KC

CLE

18-19

17-19

Live · model leanEnd 4thPolls every 30s

56.8%

KC wins · current

Pre-game: 52.2% KC

CLE 0 · 1 KC

KC +1

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 8.96

J. Cantillo

1-1 · 3.67 ERA

C. Ragans

1-4 · 5.29 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

KC spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

KC no-vig %

54.2%

open 55.1% · -0.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Pure CLV joins once moneyline closing-line ingest catches up across leagues.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.0%

ensemble · KC favored

Elo Static
52.2%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
50.2%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.7%
P(KC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.43 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live · model intelligence

66% confidence

Win prob · home

77.4%

+25.2ppvs pre-game · KC favored

Leverage

medium

1-point game · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+113

Close price

+113

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved

Player projections

KC vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 60 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.5± 3.5low
Parker MessickCLE
6.3± 2.7low
Kris BubicKC
6.0± 4.0low

Hits

Chase DeLauterCLE
1.4± 1.1high
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.2± 0.7high
Salvador PerezKC
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Elias DiazKC
2.3± 2.3low
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
2.2± 2.1high
Chase DeLauterCLE
2.1± 1.9high

RBIs

Elias DiazKC
0.8± 1.3low
Nick LoftinKC
0.8± 2.1low
Salvador PerezKC
0.8± 0.8high

Earned runs

Slade CecconiCLE
3.7± 3.2low
Noah CameronKC
3.2± 2.5low
Cole RagansKC
2.7± 3.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelTossup

● Live

CLE

Guardians

18-19

vs52.2%KC

KC★

Royals

17-19

CLE 47.8%win prob52.2% KC

KC 1503 · CLE 1512Box score→

MLBWed, May 6End 4thSeriesKC leads series 2-0VegasKC -141

Updated 0s ago

Tonight's box score

Every player. Every line.

CLE · KC

CLE

18-19

Player	H-AB	OPS
A. Martinez★LF	0-1	0.500
C. DeLauter★RF	1-2	1.000
J. Ramirez★3B	0-1	0.500
R. Hoskins★1B	0-2	0.000
D. Fry★RF	0-2	0.000
D. Schneemann★CF	0-1	0.500
B. Rocchio★SS	0-2	0.000
A. Hedges★C	0-1	0.000
P. Halpin★CF	0-1	0.000
Team	1-13	—

Player	IP	H	ER	K
J. Cantillo★SP	4.0	3	1	1
Team	4.0	3	1	1

17-19

Player	H-AB	R	RBI	OPS
M. Garcia★3B	2-2	0	0	2.000
B. Witt Jr.★SS	0-2	1	0	0.000
L. Thomas★CF	0-1	0	0	0.500
S. Perez★C	0-0	0	1	—
V. Pasquantino★1B	0-2	0	0	0.000
S. Marte★RF	1-2	0	0	1.000
I. Collins★LF	0-2	0	0	0.000
N. Loftin★3B	0-0	0	0	—
E. Diaz★C	0-1	0	0	0.000
Team	3-12	1	1	—

Player	IP	H	K
C. Ragans★SP	3.0	1	4
L. AvilaRP	1.0	0	0
Team	4.0	1	4

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

Hits

Runs

Errors

Current series

KC leads series 2-0

May 4

CLE2@

KC6

May 5

CLE3@

KC5

May 6

CLE@

KCtoday

May 7

CLE@

KCupcoming

Season series

KC leads series 3-2

Apr 6

KC4@

CLE2

Apr 7

KC1@

CLE2

Apr 8

KC2@

CLE10

May 4

CLE2@

KC6

May 5

CLE3@

KC5

May 6

CLE@

KCtoday

May 7

CLE@

KCupcoming

Aug 28

KC@

CLEupcoming

Aug 29

KC@

CLEupcoming

Aug 30

KC@

CLEupcoming

Sep 25

CLE@

KCupcoming

Sep 26

CLE@

KCupcoming

Sep 27

CLE@

KCupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

KC -1.5

1.5pt· 6h

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CLE+11746%

KC-14159%

5· 6h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet KC -1.5↗SpreadBet KC -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats

CLESP

J. Cantillo

#54 · 1-1

ERA

3.67

—

Last 3 starts

5/2@

ATH4.0 IP · 4 ER · 2 K-

4/25@

TOR5.0 IP · 1 ER · 4 KL(1-1)

4/19vs

BAL4.2 IP · 3 ER · 6 K-

KCSP

C. Ragans

#55 · 1-4

ERA

5.29

—

Last 3 starts

5/2@

SEA5.1 IP · 4 ER · 8 K-

4/25vs

LAA6.0 IP · 1 ER · 11 KW(1-4)

4/19@

NYY4.1 IP · 7 ER · 6 KL(0-4)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order

CLE3L · 3R · 3S

1
A. Martinez
LF · #1
B
2
C. DeLauter
DH · #24
L
3
J. Ramirez
3B · #11
B
4
R. Hoskins
1B · #8
R
5
D. Fry
RF · #6
R
6
D. Schneemann
2B · #10
L
7
B. Rocchio
SS · #4
B
8
A. Hedges
C · #27
R
9
P. Halpin
CF · #0
L

KC1L · 7R · 1S

1
M. Garcia
3B · #11
R
2
B. Witt Jr.
SS · #7
R
3
L. Thomas
CF · #15
R
4
S. Perez
DH · #13
R
5
V. Pasquantino
1B · #9
L
6
S. Marte
RF · #0
R
7
I. Collins
LF · #1
B
8
N. Loftin
2B · #12
R
9
E. Diaz
C · #43
R

Live · top performers so far

End 4th

Game flowCLE ↔ KC

Recent swing: 7pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

Just happened

End of the 4th inning

CLE

C. DeLauter

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.000 OPS

J. Cantillo

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 1 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 2 K · 2 ER

M. Garcia

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2.000 OPS

C. Ragans

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 2 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 9 K · 0 ER

How it's going

KC lead CLE 1-0 (End 4th).

Win probability

KC vs CLE

Score progression

0 lead changes

CLE0

KC1

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CLEBottom 1st Inning · 0-0

+7pp→ 43% WP

Witt Jr. · grounded into double play, third to second to first, Garcia out at second.

CLEBottom 2nd Inning · 0-0

+7pp→ 41% WP

Collins · struck out looking.

Linescore (innings)

Team	1	2	3	4	R
CLE	0	0	0	0	0
KC	0	0	1	0	1

Period scoring

CLE won 0 · KC won 1

Inn 1

Inn 2

Inn 3

Perez 1

Inn 4

CLE

Game flow · key plays

T4
Rocchio grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Schneemann out at second.
CLE 0·KC 1
+5pp
B3
Perez hit sacrifice fly to right, Witt Jr. scored.
CLE 0·KC 1
+6pp
T3
Hoskins popped out to first.
CLE 0·KC 0
+5pp
B2
Collins struck out looking.
CLE 0·KC 0
−7pp
B2
Marte singled to right, Perez to third.
CLE 0·KC 0
+6pp
B1
Witt Jr. grounded into double play, third to second to first, Garcia out at second.
CLE 0·KC 0
−7pp

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

Home

Hits

Errors

Runs

Betting line

KC -1.5·O/U 7.5·CLE +117/KC -141

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+113

Close price

+113

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved

Live · model intelligence

66% confidence

Win prob · home

77.4%

+25.2ppvs pre-game · KC favored

Leverage

medium

1-point game · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Player projections

KC vs CLE.

125

projections · 60 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.5± 3.5low
Parker MessickCLE
6.3± 2.7low
Kris BubicKC
6.0± 4.0low

Hits

Chase DeLauterCLE
1.4± 1.1high
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.2± 0.7high
Salvador PerezKC
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Elias DiazKC
2.3± 2.3low
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
2.2± 2.1high
Chase DeLauterCLE
2.1± 1.9high

RBIs

Elias DiazKC
0.8± 1.3low
Nick LoftinKC
0.8± 2.1low
Salvador PerezKC
0.8± 0.8high

Earned runs

Slade CecconiCLE
3.7± 3.2low
Noah CameronKC
3.2± 2.5low
Cole RagansKC
2.7± 3.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

52.0%

ensemble · KC favored

Elo Static
52.2%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
50.2%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.7%
P(KC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.43 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen