MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3ARI

20-30

ARI

25-23

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona

17,748 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ARI spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

ARI no-vig %

55.1%

open 54.2% · +0.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ARI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.9%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
58.7%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
59.4%
P(ARI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
57.3%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.88 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.87

CLV pp

Open price

-131

Close price

-136

Open no-vig

54.2%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+8.7pp

best edge · ARI · DraftKings

no live price

ARI

★ best

-112DraftKings

edge +8.7pp · implied 50.5%

Book	SF	ARI	Best edge
DraftKings	-107	-112★	+8.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

ARI vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

Landen RouppSF
5.9± 2.1low
Trevor McDonaldSF
5.3± 2.0low
Michael SorokaARI
5.2± 2.7low

Hits

Jung Hoo LeeSF
1.7± 1.1high
Luis ArraezSF
1.5± 0.5high
Matt ChapmanSF
1.3± 1.4high

Total bases

Matt ChapmanSF
2.5± 3.7high
Corbin CarrollARI
2.2± 2.5high
Bryce EldridgeSF
2.1± 1.8high

RBIs

Matt ChapmanSF
1.3± 2.4high
Willy AdamesSF
0.8± 1.6high
Ketel MarteARI
0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
3.6± 3.5low
Ryne NelsonARI
3.4± 3.5low
Zac GallenARI
3.2± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

ARI

.728

OPS

◀

.715

.691

.309

OBP

.319

.306

4.19

Runs / G

4.50

4.22

4.55

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.25

1.41

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.28

8.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

SF 3 · ARI 6 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ARI +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SF	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	3
ARI	1	0	2	0	3	0	0	0	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
W. BrennanLF	.056	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. Arraez2B	.319	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. SchmittDH	.293	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
R. Devers1B	.246	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
W. AdamesSS	.235	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. Chapman3B	.226	4	2	2	0	0	0	0
B. EldridgeDH	.156	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
D. SusacC	.395	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
D. GilbertCF	.213	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. RodríguezC	.200	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
H. BaderCF	.157	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		35	3	8	3	1	1	5

Player

AVG

RBI

.056

.319

.293

.246

.235

.226

.156

.395

.213

.200

.157

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
T. MahleSP	5.0	8	6	6	0	6	79
K. WinnRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	11
S. HentgesRP	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	16
J. PegueroRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	12
Team	8.0	9	6	6	1	10	118

Player

5.0

1.0

1.1

0.2

Team

8.0

118

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
K. Marte2B	.235	3	3	3	2	1	1	0
I. Vargas1B	.331	4	0	0	1	0	0	0
G. PerdomoSS	.224	3	0	1	3	0	0	1
A. Del CastilloDH	.190	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. Gurriel Jr.LF	.230	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. FernandezDH	.283	4	0	2	0	0	0	2
J. BarrosaCF	.183	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. TawaLF	.170	3	1	1	0	0	0	2
R. WaldschmidtCF	.324	3	2	2	0	0	0	0
Team		31	6	9	6	1	1	10

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
M. KellySP	6.0	8	3	3	0	4	85
B. GarciaRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	9
T. ClarkeRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	6
B. PfaadtRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
P. SewaldRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
Team	9.0	8	3	3	1	5	122

Team

ARI

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

ARI vs SF.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ARI vs SF.

3 sub-models, blended.