• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL
DET

DET

22-36

0
0
BAL

BAL

26-32

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland

Line movement

200 snapshots

BAL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

BAL no-vig %

51.2%

open 52.2% · -1.0

+2.0+1.0BAL SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL56.2%47.2%BAL NO-VIG %MODEL 55.9%May 22, 7 PMMay 23, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

DET 0 · BAL 0 (tied)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BAL +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

54%Last 7 · 59-50
61%Last 30 · 320-207
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.9pp

best edge · BAL · DraftKings

DET

no live price

BAL

★ best
-120DraftKings

edge +3.9pp · implied 52.1%

BookDETBALBest edge
DraftKings-101-120★+3.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Sat, May 23·Final/SeriesBAL wins series 2-1/VegasBAL -126

MLB · Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles · final

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Postponed
DET22-36
0
0
BAL26-32
DET22-36·BAL26-32
DET

DET

22-36

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
BAL

BAL

26-32

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR

Current series

BAL wins series 2-1

May 22DETDET4@BALBAL7
May 23DETDET0@BALBAL0today
May 24DETDET3@BALBAL5
May 24DETDET4@BALBAL1

Season series

BAL leads series 1-0

May 22DETDET4@BALBAL7
May 23DETDET0@BALBAL0today
May 24DETDET3@BALBAL5
May 24DETDET4@BALBAL1
Jul 27BALBAL@DETDETupcoming
Jul 28BALBAL@DETDETupcoming
Jul 29BALBAL@DETDETupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DETDET+10449%
BALBAL-12656%

↗5· 5.7h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 8·DET +104/BAL -126

DraftKings · via ESPN

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 954 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 24, 26sim 92
    64
    1(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 91
    32
    4(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 22, 26sim 90
    64
    1(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 89
    63
    1(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 21, 26sim 89
    212
    20(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 8, 26sim 88
    30
    14(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.12

CLV pp

Open price

-120

Close price

-120

Open no-vig

52.2%

Close no-vig

52.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

BAL vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Shane BazBAL
    5.3± 2.1low

Hits

  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.8± 1.9high
  • Adley RutschmanBAL
    1.6± 2.1high

RBIs

  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.8± 1.4high
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL
    0.7± 1.9high
  • Samuel BasalloBAL
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.9low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.1%

ensemble · BAL favored

  • Elo Static

    56.8%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.8%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    58.5%

    P(BAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.70 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.