MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+7PIT

PIT

25-24

STL

28-20

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri

27,185 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

STL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

STL no-vig %

52.1%

open 53.2% · -1.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.9%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
57.7%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
58.9%
P(STL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.6%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.51 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.48

CLV pp

Open price

-126

Close price

-118

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

51.7%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

Player projections

STL vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
6.8± 3.2low
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.6± 2.7low
Dustin MaySTL
5.3± 3.4low

Hits

Jordan WalkerSTL
1.4± 1.0high
Alec BurlesonSTL
1.3± 0.5high
Jake MangumPIT
1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

Alec BurlesonSTL
2.6± 1.8high
Jordan WalkerSTL
2.4± 1.9high
Lars NootbaarSTL
2.2± 3.5low

RBIs

Alec BurlesonSTL
1.0± 1.1high
Jordan WalkerSTL
0.9± 1.1high
Brandon LowePIT
0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.5± 3.0low
Bubba ChandlerPIT
2.7± 2.4low
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
2.6± 2.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PIT

league avg

STL

.739

OPS

◀

.715

.716

.334

OBP

◀

.319

.322

5.06

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.49

4.26

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.01

1.31

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.33

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

PIT 7 · STL 0 (by 7)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked STL +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PIT	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	4	0	7
STL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
N. Gonzales3B	.319	4	1	2	2	0	0	0
B. Lowe2B	.250	5	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. ReynoldsLF	.251	5	0	1	2	0	0	1
O. CruzCF	.259	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
S. Horwitz1B	.276	5	1	1	1	1	0	1
K. GriffinSS	.278	5	3	4	0	0	0	0
E. RodriguezC	.333	3	1	2	0	0	2	1
J. GarciaRF	.333	5	0	2	1	0	0	2
J. MangumLF	.259	5	1	2	1	0	0	0
B. CookRF	.190	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		41	7	15	7	1	3	6

Player

AVG

RBI

.319

.250

.251

.259

.276

.278

.333

.333

.259

.190

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
C. MlodzinskiSP	5.0	4	0	0	1	1	95
Y. RamirezRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	24
E. SiskRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15
J. LawrenceRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	16
D. SantanaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
Team	9.0	5	0	0	2	6	161

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

161

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. Wetherholt2B	.244	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
I. HerreraDH	.257	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Burleson1B	.286	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. WalkerRF	.296	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Gorman3B	.234	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
M. WinnSS	.248	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. Prieto3B	.000	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. ChurchLF	.247	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
V. Scott IICF	.190	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
Y. PozoC	.259	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. SaggeseLF	.159	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. FerminLF	.216	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	0	5	0	0	2	6

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
M. McGreevySP	5.0	10	3	3	1	1	91
J. BruihlRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	2	23
M. SvansonRP	0.2	5	4	4	0	1	27
M. PushardRP	1.1	0	0	0	2	2	35
Team	9.0	15	7	7	3	6	176

Team

PIT

STL

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

STL vs PIT.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

STL vs PIT.

3 sub-models, blended.