MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+8TEX

TEX

22-24

HOU

19-29

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas

34,893 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

HOU spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

HOU no-vig %

47.8%

open 47.8%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = HOU favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

40.6%

ensemble · TEX favored

Elo Static
42.1%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
43.0%
P(HOU win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
41.3%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.69 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.04

CLV pp

Open price

-120

Close price

-126

Open no-vig

52.2%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+6.3pp

best edge · TEX · DraftKings

TEX

★ best

-126DraftKings

edge +6.3pp · implied 53.2%

HOU

no live price

Book	TEX	HOU	Best edge
DraftKings	-126★	+104	+6.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

HOU vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob deGromTEX
6.3± 3.5low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
5.8± 2.8low
Jack LeiterTEX
5.6± 3.6low

Hits

Jeremy PenaHOU
1.2± 1.2high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.2± 1.2high
Josh JungTEX
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.1± 1.8high
Isaac ParedesHOU
1.8± 1.9high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.8± 2.0high

RBIs

Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.8± 1.5high
Isaac ParedesHOU
0.7± 1.4high
Elias DiazTEX
0.7± 1.1low

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.7± 2.8low
Jack LeiterTEX
2.9± 2.6low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
2.7± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TEX

league avg

HOU

.699

OPS

.715

▶

.733

.317

OBP

.319

▶

.321

4.00

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.56

3.71

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.91

1.23

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.44

8.5

K / 9

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

TEX 8 · HOU 0 (by 8)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TEX +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TEX	0	0	0	0	2	0	5	0	1	8
HOU	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
E. CarterCF	.167	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. NimmoRF	.267	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. Jung3B	.301	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. PedersonDH	.212	1	1	0	0	0	2	1
E. Duran2B	.270	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
A. OsunaLF	.261	3	2	1	0	0	0	0
J. Burger1B	.232	4	2	2	4	1	0	1
J. Foscue2B	.182	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
K. HigashiokaC	.211	4	2	2	3	1	0	1
S. HaggertyLF	.161	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. McCutchenDH	.220	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	8	7	8	2	2	8

Player

AVG

RBI

.167

.267

.301

.212

.270

.261

.232

.182

.211

.161

.220

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
N. EovaldiSP	7.0	5	0	0	2	8	94
G. CollyerRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	2	17
Team	9.0	5	0	0	2	10	111

Player

N. EovaldiSP

7.0

G. CollyerRP

2.0

Team

9.0

111

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
B. MatthewsCF	.204	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Y. AlvarezDH	.316	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. Walker1B	.263	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Z. ColeLF	.211	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
Z. DezenzoLF	.231	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
B. ShewmakeSS	.333	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. SmithRF	.196	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. SalazarC	.091	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. AllenSS	.235	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
C. VazquezC	.244	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. Whitcomb3B	.118	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	0	5	0	0	2	10

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
P. LambertSP	6.0	3	5	5	2	6	93
C. BoltonSP	3.0	4	3	3	0	2	51
Team	9.0	7	8	8	2	8	144

Team

TEX

HOU

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

HOU vs TEX.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

HOU vs TEX.

3 sub-models, blended.