MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3TOR

TOR

21-25

DET

20-27

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan

37,486 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

DET spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

DET no-vig %

44.9%

open 44.9%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.3%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
51.4%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.4%
P(DET win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.5%
P(DET win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.96 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+3.27

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+113

Close price

-102

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

48.2%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+1.9pp

best edge · DET · DraftKings

TOR

no live price

DET

★ best

-102DraftKings

edge +1.9pp · implied 48.2%

Book	TOR	DET	Best edge
DraftKings	-119	-102★	+1.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

DET vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.9low
Jack FlahertyDET
5.6± 3.5low
Trey YesavageTOR
5.5± 2.0low

Hits

Dillon DinglerDET
1.3± 1.6high
Gleyber TorresDET
1.3± 1.3high
Ernie ClementTOR
1.3± 1.0high

Total bases

Dillon DinglerDET
2.8± 4.4high
Ernie ClementTOR
2.1± 2.3high
Gleyber TorresDET
2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

Dillon DinglerDET
1.2± 1.8high
Kerry CarpenterDET
0.8± 1.0high
Gleyber TorresDET
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Max ScherzerTOR
4.2± 4.0low
Simeon Woods RichardsonTOR
3.2± 3.3low
Framber ValdezDET
2.8± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TOR

league avg

DET

.701

OPS

.715

.707

.313

OBP

.319

.316

4.09

Runs / G

4.50

4.09

4.08

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.97

1.27

WHIP

1.31

1.28

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

TOR 4 · DET 1 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked DET +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TOR	2	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	4
DET	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
Y. PinangoLF	.333	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.286	4	2	2	1	1	0	0
D. VarshoCF	.261	3	2	2	1	0	1	0
J. SanchezRF	.259	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
L. Sosa2B	.203	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. Clement2B	.282	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. GimenezSS	.238	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. ValenzuelaC	.232	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
D. SchneiderLF	.145	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. StrawRF	.282	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	4	7	3	1	1	5

Player

AVG

RBI

.333

.286

.261

.259

.203

.282

.238

.232

.145

.282

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
K. GausmanSP	6.0	4	0	0	0	5	97
Y. RodriguezRP	1.1	1	1	1	0	1	14
J. MantiplyRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	0	21
T. RogersRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	20
Team	9.0	6	1	1	2	7	152

Player

6.0

1.1

0.2

1.0

Team

9.0

152

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
K. McGonigleSS	.290	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. DinglerC	.252	3	0	2	0	0	1	0
C. Keith3B	.295	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. GreeneLF	.320	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. VierlingCF	.207	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
G. Workman3B	.227	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
Z. McKinstry2B	.182	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. Torkelson1B	.196	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
W. PerezRF	.168	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. JonesDH	.192	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
Team		33	1	6	1	0	2	7

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. FlahertySP	6.0	5	4	4	0	4	90
B. SmithRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	14
E. De JesusRP	1.2	1	0	0	1	0	29
Team	9.0	7	4	4	1	5	133

Team

TOR

DET

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

DET vs TOR.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

DET vs TOR.

3 sub-models, blended.