MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

TUE, 9:38 PM EDT

CHW

17-18

LAA

13-23

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 8.64

E. Fedde

0-3 · 3.24 ERA

S. Aldegheri

1-0 · 5.40 ERA

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Erick Fedde

SP · #47

0-3

W-L

3.24

ERA

1.05

WHIP

33.1

Last 3 starts

vsLAA-7.0 IP2 ER6 K

vsWSH-5.2 IP1 ER1 K

@ATH-4.2 IP3 ER3 K

Home starter

Sam Aldegheri

SP · #61

1-0

W-L

5.40

ERA

1.80

WHIP

1.2

Last 1 starts

@NYYW(1-0)1.2 IP1 ER2 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5

TotalO/U 9

Money-103 / -117

Model edge

Win prob53% / 47%

LeanTossup

ConfidenceTossup

Head to head

SeriesCHW lead series 1-0

TypeCurrent Series

Place a bet

Pick a side.

Even matchup per the model — pick a side and we'll send you to the book.

-103Bet CHW ML↗-103Bet CHW ML↗

-117Bet LAA ML↗-117Bet LAA ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 9Bet the total↗O/U 9Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Projected lineups

Top of the order, top of mind.

Posted by ESPN ~30 minutes before first pitch.

CHW

1.C. Meidroth2B
2.M. Vargas1B
3.C. Montgomery3B
4.R. GrichukRF
5.E. QueroC
6.A. BenintendiDH
7.D. HillCF
8.L. AcunaSS
9.S. AntonacciLF

LAA

1.Z. NetoSS
2.M. TroutCF
3.N. Schanuel1B
4.J. SolerDH
5.J. AdellRF
6.Y. Moncada3B
7.V. Grissom2B
8.S. RiveroC
9.J. LoweLF

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAA spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

LAA no-vig %

52.6%

open 51.1% · +1.5

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAA favored. Pure CLV joins once moneyline closing-line ingest catches up across leagues.

Model vs marketLean

DraftKings · snapped just now

+4.0ppon

CHW

CHWWin prob axisLAA LAA

Market 52%

Model 47%

0%50%100%

ModelCHW 53%Pre-game prob

MarketCHW 48%No-vig · 4.7% hold

Edge+4.0ppModel finds value

CHW -103/

LAA -117

-103Bet CHW ML↗-103Bet CHW ML↗

Scouting report · pre-game

LAA vs CHW.

LAA is 1-9 recently; CHW is 7-3.

47.5%

model · LAA win prob

Recent form

LAA1–9-3.1
CHW7–3+1.7

Situational

LAA2d rest
CHW2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. LAA has 0 straight road games; CHW has 4.

Model angle

+4.0ppon CHW

CHW's edge is mostly venue split plus recent form. Travel burden is the main caution flag. Weather and park remove about 0.2 runs from the total environment.

▼Weather + park-0.2pp
▲Venue split+1.5pp
▲Recent form+1.2pp

Players to watch

Munetaka MurakamiCHW
2.1total bases · ±2.6
Munetaka Murakami · 2.1 TB · last-10 2.1 vs season 2.1.
Mike TroutLAA
1.8total bases · ±1.5
Mike Trout · 1.8 TB · last-10 1.7 vs season 1.9.
Miguel VargasCHW
1.7total bases · ±1.6
Miguel Vargas · 1.7 TB · last-10 1.8 vs season 1.6.

Head-to-head · 0-4 · last 4

LAA is 0-4 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-04-27LAA @ CHW7–8
2026-04-28LAA @ CHW2–5
2026-04-29LAA @ CHW2–3
2026-05-04CHW @ LAA6–0

Line move

open -115→-122toward LAA

The market has moved 1.5pp toward the home side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

46.5%

ensemble · CHW favored

Elo Static
47.5%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
44.9%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.1%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.14 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

The receipts

Why we like CHW.

CHW's edge is mostly venue split plus recent form. Travel burden is the main caution flag.

+4.0

pp edge · CHW

0.00

CLV pp

0.9u · small

on CHW

52.6%

±5.5pp band

0.95u small — +1.9pp edge, quarter Kelly.

Edge

+4.1pp

+0.1pp post-cal

Kelly

3.8%

0.9% sized

Decimal

1.97

+1.9pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 4.0pp · CHW over LAA

▲
Venue split70% conf
CHW's venue form is 42.7pp stronger in the recent sample.
+1.5pp
▲
Recent form70% conf
CHW is 4-1 over its last 5; LAA is 1-4.
+1.2pp
▼
Travel burden58% conf
CHW is carrying the heavier road load, so the edge gets a haircut.
-1.1pp
▼
Line steam70% conf
The market moved 1.5pp away from CHW since open.
-0.6pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
CHW has taken 3 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.6pp
▼
Model confidence68% conf
CHW is a lean, so the confidence layer stays modest.
-0.5pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Line barely moved

Player projections

LAA vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 54 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jose SorianoLAA
6.7± 3.3low
Reid DetmersLAA
6.3± 3.1low
Davis MartinCHW
6.1± 3.1low

Hits

Jo AdellLAA
1.1± 0.7high
Nolan SchanuelLAA
1.1± 0.9high
Chase MeidrothCHW
1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

Munetaka MurakamiCHW
2.1± 2.6high
Drew RomoCHW
2.0± 4.5low
Mike TroutLAA
1.8± 1.5high

RBIs

Munetaka MurakamiCHW
0.9± 1.3high
Drew RomoCHW
0.7± 1.6low
Jorge SolerLAA
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Anthony KayCHW
2.7± 3.5low
Reid DetmersLAA
2.7± 2.3low
Erick FeddeCHW
2.0± 1.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelTossup

Tue, May 5

CHW★

White Sox

17-18

vs53%CHW

LAA

Angels

13-23

CHW 53%win prob47% LAA

CHW 1473 · LAA 1432Box score→

MLBTue, May 55/5 - 9:38 PM EDTSeriesCHW lead series 1-0VegasLAA -117

Preview · MLB

hicago White Sox visit Los Angeles Angels Tuesday at 5/5 - 9:38 PM EDT. CHW is 8-4 in their last 12.

Vegas opened CHW as a 1.5-point favorite with the total at 9.0. LAA's moneyline implies a 54% break-even, CHW the inverse.

For bettors: the CHW side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 9.0 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Updated 0s ago

Tonight's box score

Every player. Every line.

CHW · LAA

CHW

17-18

Player	H-AB	RBI	HR	OPS
C. Meidroth★2B	33-125	4	1	0.552
M. Vargas★3B	28-123	18	7	0.626
C. Montgomery★SS	28-124	23	9	0.669
R. Grichuk★LF	6-32	2	0	0.375
E. Quero★C	12-74	5	0	0.324
A. Benintendi★LF	24-105	16	2	0.514
D. Hill★RF	10-39	3	2	0.667
L. Acuna★CF	13-77	3	0	0.338
S. Antonacci★LF	15-55	7	1	0.600
Team	-----	--	--	—

Player	IP	H	ER	K
E. Fedde★SP	--.--	--	--	--
Team	--.--	--	--	--

LAA

13-23

Player	H-AB	RBI	HR	OPS
Z. Neto★SS	30-143	15	5	0.524
M. Trout★CF	31-124	21	10	0.742
N. Schanuel★1B	33-129	19	3	0.581
J. Soler★RF	27-117	26	7	0.641
J. Adell★RF	39-145	20	4	0.621
Y. Moncada★3B	16-91	9	3	0.451
V. Grissom★2B	14-47	7	1	0.660
S. Rivero★C	3-6	0	0	1.000
J. Lowe★LF	14-91	10	4	0.440
Team	-----	--	--	—

Player	IP	H	ER	K
S. Aldegheri★SP	--.--	--	--	--
Team	--.--	--	--	--

Current series

CHW lead series 1-0

May 5

CHW6@

LAA0

May 6

CHW@

LAAtoday

May 6

CHW@

LAAupcoming

Season series

CHW lead series 4-0

Apr 27

LAA7@

CHW8

Apr 28

LAA2@

CHW5

Apr 29

LAA2@

CHW3

May 5

CHW6@

LAA0

May 6

CHW@

LAAtoday

May 6

CHW@

LAAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHW -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHW-10351%

LAA-11754%

7· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHW -1.5↗SpreadBet CHW -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats

CHWSP

E. Fedde

#47 · 0-3

ERA

3.24

—

Last 3 starts

4/29vs

LAA7.0 IP · 2 ER · 6 K-

4/24vs

WSH5.2 IP · 1 ER · 1 K-

4/18@

ATH4.2 IP · 3 ER · 3 K-

LAASP

S. Aldegheri

#61 · 1-0

ERA

5.40

—

Last 3 starts

4/16@

NYY1.2 IP · 1 ER · 2 KW(1-0)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order

CHW3L · 5R · 1S

1
C. Meidroth
2B
R
2
M. Vargas
1B
R
3
C. Montgomery
3B
L
4
R. Grichuk
RF
R
5
E. Quero
C
B
6
A. Benintendi
DH
L
7
D. Hill
CF
R
8
L. Acuna
SS
R
9
S. Antonacci
LF
L

LAA2L · 6R · 1S

1
Z. Neto
SS
R
2
M. Trout
CF
R
3
N. Schanuel
1B
L
4
J. Soler
DH
R
5
J. Adell
RF
R
6
Y. Moncada
3B
B
7
V. Grissom
2B
R
8
S. Rivero
C
R
9
J. Lowe
LF
L

Scouting report

CHW @ LAA

5/5 - 9:38 PM EDT

Rest going in

CHWStandard

1 day

last game May 4

LAAStandard

1 day

last game May 4

Model edge vs market

Lean only

Spread

Market

CHW -1.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Total

Market

9.0

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

CHW -103

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

CHWmetricLAA

17-18

Record

13-23

Conf rank

#15

-0.2

Pt diff

-0.6

Streak

7-3

Last 10

1-9

Bullpen used yesterday

CHW

2.0 bullpen IP

S. Newcomb2.0 IP28 P

W 6-0 · May 4

LAA

5.0 bullpen IP · heavy

M. Farris4.0 IP58 P
B. Suter1.0 IP15 P

L 6-0 · May 4

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Team stats

CHW

Away

Stat

LAA

Home

268

Hits

279

Errors

150

Runs

158

Betting line

CHW -1.5·O/U 9·CHW -103/LAA -117

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

LAA vs CHW.

126

projections · 54 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jose SorianoLAA
6.7± 3.3low
Reid DetmersLAA
6.3± 3.1low
Davis MartinCHW
6.1± 3.1low

Hits

Jo AdellLAA
1.1± 0.7high
Nolan SchanuelLAA
1.1± 0.9high
Chase MeidrothCHW
1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

Munetaka MurakamiCHW
2.1± 2.6high
Drew RomoCHW
2.0± 4.5low
Mike TroutLAA
1.8± 1.5high

RBIs

Munetaka MurakamiCHW
0.9± 1.3high
Drew RomoCHW
0.7± 1.6low
Jorge SolerLAA
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Anthony KayCHW
2.7± 3.5low
Reid DetmersLAA
2.7± 2.3low
Erick FeddeCHW
2.0± 1.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

46.5%

ensemble · CHW favored

Elo Static
47.5%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
44.9%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.1%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.14 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

The receipts

Why we like CHW.

CHW's edge is mostly venue split plus recent form. Travel burden is the main caution flag.

+4.0

pp edge · CHW

0.00

CLV pp

0.9u · small

on CHW

52.6%

±5.5pp band

0.95u small — +1.9pp edge, quarter Kelly.

Edge

+4.1pp

+0.1pp post-cal

Kelly

3.8%

0.9% sized

Decimal

1.97

+1.9pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 4.0pp · CHW over LAA

▲
Venue split70% conf
CHW's venue form is 42.7pp stronger in the recent sample.
+1.5pp
▲
Recent form70% conf
CHW is 4-1 over its last 5; LAA is 1-4.
+1.2pp
▼
Travel burden58% conf
CHW is carrying the heavier road load, so the edge gets a haircut.
-1.1pp
▼
Line steam70% conf
The market moved 1.5pp away from CHW since open.
-0.6pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
CHW has taken 3 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.6pp
▼
Model confidence68% conf
CHW is a lean, so the confidence layer stays modest.
-0.5pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Line barely moved

Scouting report · pre-game

LAA vs CHW.

LAA is 1-9 recently; CHW is 7-3.

47.5%

model · LAA win prob

Recent form

LAA1–9-3.1
CHW7–3+1.7

Situational

LAA2d rest
CHW2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. LAA has 0 straight road games; CHW has 4.

Model angle

+4.0ppon CHW

CHW's edge is mostly venue split plus recent form. Travel burden is the main caution flag. Weather and park remove about 0.2 runs from the total environment.

▼Weather + park-0.2pp
▲Venue split+1.5pp
▲Recent form+1.2pp

Players to watch

Munetaka MurakamiCHW
2.1total bases · ±2.6
Munetaka Murakami · 2.1 TB · last-10 2.1 vs season 2.1.
Mike TroutLAA
1.8total bases · ±1.5
Mike Trout · 1.8 TB · last-10 1.7 vs season 1.9.
Miguel VargasCHW
1.7total bases · ±1.6
Miguel Vargas · 1.7 TB · last-10 1.8 vs season 1.6.

Head-to-head · 0-4 · last 4

LAA is 0-4 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-04-27LAA @ CHW7–8
2026-04-28LAA @ CHW2–5
2026-04-29LAA @ CHW2–3
2026-05-04CHW @ LAA6–0

Line move

open -115→-122toward LAA

The market has moved 1.5pp toward the home side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes