Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYM at LAA?

The model favors LAA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

New York Mets vs Los Angeles Angels: Final Score & Box Score — May 3, 2026

FINAL+4NYM

NYM

12-22

LAA

13-22

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California

41,614 attended

Line movement

97 snapshots

LAA spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 8.5 · +0.5

LAA no-vig %

44.9%

open 45.8% · -0.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.4%

ensemble · LAA favored

Elo Static
51.9%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
47.4%
P(LAA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.9%
P(LAA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.37 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

84% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.87

CLV pp

Open price

+109

Close price

+113

Open no-vig

45.8%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYM at LAA?: The model favors LAA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

LAA vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Reid DetmersLAA
6.7± 3.8medium
Nolan McLeanNYM
6.1± 2.1medium
Jose SorianoLAA
5.7± 1.8medium

Hits

Bo BichetteNYM
1.4± 1.1high
Juan SotoNYM
1.4± 0.8high
Denzer GuzmanLAA
1.2± 0.9low

Total bases

Juan SotoNYM
2.7± 2.6high
Bo BichetteNYM
2.3± 2.4high
Denzer GuzmanLAA
2.2± 2.1low

RBIs

Denzer GuzmanLAA
1.0± 1.7low
Donovan WaltonLAA
0.8± 1.1high
Bo BichetteNYM
0.8± 1.9high

Earned runs

Kodai SengaNYM
4.0± 2.8low
Ryan JohnsonLAA
3.8± 3.2low
Freddy PeraltaNYM
3.1± 3.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYM

league avg

LAA

.669

OPS

.719

▶

.721

.297

OBP

.319

▶

.320

4.04

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.57

4.08

Team ERA

◀

4.19

4.65

1.28

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.43

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

NYM 5 · LAA 1 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAA +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYM	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	3	0	5
LAA	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. Bichette3B	.243	5	0	2	0	0	0	0
J. SotoLF	.314	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. MelendezDH	.324	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. Baty3B	.211	3	1	1	0	0	1	2
M. Semien2B	.213	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. BengeRF	.186	2	2	1	1	0	2	0
M. Vientos1B	.250	4	2	2	4	2	0	1
T. TaylorCF	.200	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. TorrensC	.182	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
A. SlaterRF	.333	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		34	5	7	5	2	4	9

Player

.243

.314

.324

.211

.213

.186

.250

.200

.182

.333

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HolmesSP	6.2	4	1	1	3	6	99
L. WeaverRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	3	17
B. RaleyRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	15
Team	9.0	6	1	1	3	11	131

Player

C. HolmesSP

6.2

L. WeaverRP

1.1

B. RaleyRP

1.0

Team

9.0

131

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. NetoSS	.216	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
M. TroutCF	.258	3	0	1	0	0	1	2
N. Schanuel1B	.248	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
J. SolerDH	.239	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
J. AdellRF	.268	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. LoweLF	.159	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
V. Grissom2B	.298	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
O. Peraza2B	.283	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
S. RiveroC	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
Y. Moncada3B	.182	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. d'ArnaudC	.133	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	1	6	1	0	3	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. KochanowiczSP	6.1	5	2	2	3	6	110
T. SaucedoRP	0.2	0	1	1	0	2	11
N. SandlinRP	1.0	2	2	2	1	0	23
D. PomeranzRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9
Team	9.0	7	5	5	4	9	153

Team

NYM

LAA

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

LAA vs NYM.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

LAA vs NYM.

3 sub-models, blended.