MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

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BOT 4TH+2NYM

NYM

14-22

COL

14-23

Live · model leanBot 4thPolls every 30s

63.0%

NYM wins · current

Pre-game: 54.1% NYM

NYM 2 · 0 COL

NYM +2

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 4

away leadsCOL leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingCOLTop 3rd Inning · 2-0
+11pp→ 37% WP
Vientos · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Bichette out at second.
SwingNYMBottom 2nd Inning · 2-0
+11pp→ 63% WP
Rumfield · flied out to left.

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 8.33

C. Scott

0-0 · 4.26 ERA

J. Quintana

1-2 · 4.07 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 11.0

open O/U 11.0

COL no-vig %

42.8%

open 42.8%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

46.4%

ensemble · NYM favored

Elo Static
45.9%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
46.1%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.3%
P(COL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.62 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

66% confidence

Win prob · home

6.8%

-39.1ppvs pre-game · NYM favored

Leverage

low

Mostly decided · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+123

Close price

+123

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Line barely moved

Line shop

Player props

Player projections

COL vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 60 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nolan McLeanNYM
7.3± 2.5low
Freddy PeraltaNYM
5.4± 3.1low
Chase DollanderCOL
5.3± 4.3low

Hits

Mickey MoniakCOL
1.3± 0.5high
TJ RumfieldCOL
1.1± 1.2high
Troy JohnstonCOL
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Mickey MoniakCOL
2.6± 2.5high
Juan SotoNYM
2.0± 2.3high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
1.8± 2.9high

RBIs

Mark VientosNYM
0.7± 1.3high
Mickey MoniakCOL
0.6± 1.0high
Tyler FreemanCOL
0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

Michael LorenzenCOL
3.3± 4.0low
David PetersonNYM
3.0± 3.5low
Tanner GordonCOL
2.5± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelLean

Thu, May 7

NYM★

Mets

14-22

vs54.1%NYM

COL

Rockies

14-23

NYM 54.1%win prob45.9% COL

NYM 1456 · COL 1404Box score→

MLBThu, May 7Bot 4thSeriesNYM lead series 2-0VegasNYM -136

Updated 0s ago

Tonight's box score

Every player. Every line.

NYM · COL

NYM

14-22

	Batting												Analytics
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K	#P	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
J. Soto★LF	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	5	.304	.398	.532	1.000
B. Bichette★3B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	7	.240	.280	.313	0.500
M. Vientos★1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	.234	.284	.404	0.000
A. Slater★LF	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	0	1	7	.235	.308	.265	1.000
M. Semien★2B	0-1	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	7	.229	.282	.321	0.500
A. Ibanez★2B	0-1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	5	.100	.130	.100	0.000
F. Alvarez★C	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	.238	.316	.396	0.000
T. Taylor★RF	1-1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	3	.203	.227	.313	2.000
V. Brujan★3B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	.000	.000	.000	0.000
Team	3-12	12	2	3	2	0	2	2	49				—

	Batting
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PC-ST	ERA	PC
C. Scott★SP	3.1	1	0	0	0	3	0	49-36	2.79	49
Team	3.1	1	0	0	0	3	0	49-36		49

COL

14-23

	Batting												Analytics
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K	#P	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
E. Julien★2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	11	.274	.367	.389	0.000
M. Moniak★LF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	7	.321	.364	.706	0.000
T. Freeman★RF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	.288	.382	.364	0.000
T. Rumfield★1B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.272	.333	.441	0.000
T. Johnston★RF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	.321	.382	.455	0.000
W. Castro★2B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	.242	.301	.326	0.000
J. McCarthy★LF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	8	.258	.333	.439	0.000
K. Karros★3B	1-1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	6	.225	.347	.294	2.000
B. Sullivan★C	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	.264	.304	.377	0.000
Team	1-11	11	0	1	0	0	0	3	49				—

	Batting
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PC-ST	ERA	PC
J. Quintana★SP	4.0	3	2	2	2	2	0	49-28	4.13	49
Team	4.0	3	2	2	2	2	0	49-28		49

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

Hits

Runs

Errors

Current series

NYM lead series 2-0

May 4

NYM4@

COL2

May 6

NYM0@

COL0

May 7

NYM10@

COL5

May 7

NYM@

COLtoday

Season series

COL leads series 3-2

Apr 24

COL4@

NYM3

Apr 25

COL0@

NYM0

Apr 26

COL3@

NYM1

Apr 26

COL3@

NYM0

May 4

NYM4@

COL2

May 6

NYM0@

COL0

May 7

NYM10@

COL5

May 7

NYM@

COLtoday

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYM -1.5

1.5pt· 6.2h

Total

11.0

High-scoring · +2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NYM-13658%

COL+11347%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

11.0

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats

NYMSP

C. Scott

#45 · 0-0

ERA

4.26

—

Last 3 starts

5/2@

LAA5.0 IP · 2 ER · 8 K-

4/23vs

MIN1.1 IP · 1 ER · 1 K-

COLSP

J. Quintana

#62 · 1-2

ERA

4.07

—

Last 3 starts

5/2vs

ATL6.0 IP · 1 ER · 3 K-

4/26@

NYM5.1 IP · 1 ER · 5 KW(1-2)

4/21vs

LAD5.0 IP · 4 ER · 1 KL(0-2)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order

NYM1L · 7R · 1S

1
J. Soto
DH · #22
L
2
B. Bichette
3B · #19
R
3
M. Vientos
1B · #27
R
4
A. Slater
RF · #40
R
5
M. Semien
2B · #10
R
6
A. Ibanez
LF · #77
R
7
F. Alvarez
C · #4
R
8
T. Taylor
CF · #28
R
9
V. Brujan
SS · #2
B

COL6L · 2R · 1S

1
E. Julien
2B · #6
L
2
M. Moniak
LF · #22
L
3
T. Freeman
DH · #2
R
4
T. Rumfield
1B · #7
L
5
T. Johnston
RF · #20
L
6
W. Castro
SS · #3
B
7
J. McCarthy
CF · #31
L
8
K. Karros
3B · #12
R
9
B. Sullivan
C · #26
L

Live · top performers so far

Bot 4th

Game flowNYM ↔ COL

Recent swing: 11pp · Top 3rd Inning

NYM

T. Taylor

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

C. Scott

Starting pitcher

3.1 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 1 H

On pace: 7 IP · 6 K · 0 ER

COL

K. Karros

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

J. Quintana

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 4 K · 4 ER

How it's going

NYM lead COL 2-0 (Bot 4th).

Win probability

COL vs NYM

Score progression

0 lead changes

NYM2

COL0

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NYMBottom 2nd Inning · 2-0

+11pp→ 63% WP

Rumfield · flied out to left.

COLTop 3rd Inning · 2-0

+11pp→ 37% WP

Vientos · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Bichette out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team	1	2	3	4	R
NYM	0	2	0	0	2
COL	0	0	0	0	0

Period scoring

NYM won 1 · COL won 0

Inn 1

Inn 2

Taylor 1

Inn 3

Inn 4

NYM

COL

Game flow · key plays

B3
Karros doubled to right.
NYM 2·COL 0
+4pp
T3
Vientos grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Bichette out at second.
NYM 2·COL 0
+11pp
T3
Soto tripled to second.
NYM 2·COL 0
−6pp
B2
Rumfield flied out to left.
NYM 2·COL 0
−11pp
T2
Brett Sullivan challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Marcus Semien walks. Austin Slater to 2nd.
NYM 0·COL 0
−5pp
T2
Slater singled to right.
NYM 0·COL 0
−5pp

Team stats

NYM

Away

Stat

COL

Home

Hits

Errors

Runs

Betting line

NYM -1.5·O/U 11·NYM -136/COL +113

DraftKings · via ESPN