MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Caballero walked, Rice scored, Bellinger to second, Judge to third. → win prob 80→86% NYY

BOT 4TH+10NYY

NYY

35-23

133

ATH

28-30

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 986 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

MLB · At bat

Bottom 40-00 outs

Pitcher· NYY

W. Warren

3.0 IP, 2 K, 0 ER

Batter· ATH

Z. Gelof

0-1, 1 K

Live · model leanBot 4thPolls every 30s

83.2%

NYY wins · current

Pre-game: 60.6% NYY

NYY 13 · 3 ATH

NYY +10

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 4

away leadsATH leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingNYYTop 3rd Inning · 5-3
+6pp→ 86% WP
Caballero · walked, Rice scored, Bellinger to second, Judge to third.
SwingNYYTop 3rd Inning · 3-3
+17pp→ 72% WP
Rice · doubled to right, Schuemann scored and Wells scored, Goldschmidt to third.
SwingNYYTop 3rd Inning · 0-3
+7pp→ 28% WP
Volpe · singled to center.
Lead flipATHBottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+19pp→ 66% WP
Cortes · scored on error and Soderstrom scored on error, Heim safe at first on fielding error by center fielder Grisham, Heim safe at second on error.
Lead flipATHBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 54% WP
Cortes · doubled to left.

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 9.28

W. Warren

6-1 · 3.55 ERA

J. Lopez

4-2 · 5.73 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATH spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 10.0

open O/U 10.5 · -0.5

ATH no-vig %

41.7%

open 41.7%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.4%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
40.3%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
37.7%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
39.8%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.12 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

1.0%

-39.3ppvs pre-game · NYY favored

Leverage

±2.3

pp · next play

low · 3/100

Mostly decided · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+11.9pp

best edge · ATH · DraftKings

NYY

no live price

ATH

★ best

+240DraftKings

edge +11.9pp · implied 27.5%

Book	NYY	ATH	Best edge
DraftKings	-347	+240★	+11.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

ATH vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

Ryan WeathersNYY
6.8± 3.3low
Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.7± 2.0low
Will WarrenNYY
6.1± 3.3low

Hits

Tyler SoderstromATH
1.2± 0.8high
Ben RiceNYY
1.2± 1.3high
Nick KurtzATH
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Ben RiceNYY
2.4± 2.9high
Tyler SoderstromATH
2.1± 2.2high
Nick KurtzATH
1.8± 1.9high

RBIs

Ben RiceNYY
0.8± 1.1high
Aaron JudgeNYY
0.7± 0.8high
Anthony VolpeNYY
0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

Jacob LopezATH
2.8± 2.3low
Jeffrey SpringsATH
2.6± 2.8low
Ryan WeathersNYY
2.3± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelEdge

● Live

NYY★

Yankees

39-25

vs60.6%NYY

ATH

Athletics

29-35

NYY 60.6%win prob39.4% ATH

NYY 1570 · ATH 1478Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting
P. Goldschmidt★1B	1-3	3	1	1	1	0	0	1
B. Rice★1B	2-3	3	2	2	4	0	0	0
SPRINT26.941
A. Judge★RF	1-3	3	1	1	1	0	0	2
C. Bellinger★LF	2-3	3	1	2	1	0	0	1
SPRINT27.560
J. Caballero★SS	1-2	2	1	1	1	0	1	1
T. Grisham★CF	1-3	3	1	1	2	0	0	0
SPRINT26.735
A. Volpe★SS	2-3	3	2	2	1	0	0	0
M. Schuemann★SS	1-2	2	2	1	2	0	1	0
A. Wells★C	0-1	1	2	0	0	0	2	0
Team	11-23	23	13	11	13	0	4	5

Batting

Player

1-3

2-3

1-3

2-3

1-2

1-3

2-3

1-2

0-1

Team

11-23

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching
W. Warren★SP	3.0	4	3	0	2	2	0
Team	3.0	4	3	0	2	2	0

Pitching

Player

W. Warren★SP

3.0

Team

3.0

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting
C. Cortes★RF	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT25.716
B. Rooker★DH	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Kurtz★1B	1-1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
SPRINT26.632
T. Soderstrom★LF	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT26.735
J. Heim★C	0-2	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
SPRINT25.18
L. Butler★RF	1-2	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
SPRINT26.530
Z. Gelof★3B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. McNeil★2B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. Hernaiz★SS	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team	4-13	13	3	4	1	0	2	2

Batting

Player