MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Freeland doubled to center, Muncy scored. → win prob 79→86% LAD

TOP 5TH+4LAD

PHI

30-28

LAD

37-21

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 986 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

MLB · At bat

Top 50-01 out

Pitcher· LAD

Y. Yamamoto

4.1 IP, 7 K, 0 ER

Batter· PHI

K. Schwarber

0-2, 2 K

LastYoshinobu Yamamoto pitches to Kyle Schwarber

Live · model leanTop 5thPolls every 30s

75.2%

LAD wins · current

Pre-game: 63.2% LAD

PHI 0 · 4 LAD

LAD +4

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 5

away leadsLAD leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingLADBottom 2nd Inning · 0-1
+7pp→ 86% WP
Freeland · doubled to center, Muncy scored.

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 8.49

A. Painter

1-5 · 5.40 ERA

Y. Yamamoto

4-4 · 3.09 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAD spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 9.0 · -0.5

LAD no-vig %

66.2%

open 66.3% · -0.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.9%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
61.8%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
64.5%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
63.1%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.10 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

99.0%

+37.2ppvs pre-game · LAD favored

Leverage

±2.3

pp · next play

low · 3/100

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.46

CLV pp

Open price

+184

Close price

+188

Open no-vig

33.7%

Close no-vig

33.2%

Line barely moved

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+6.5pp

best edge · PHI · DraftKings

PHI

★ best

+210DraftKings

edge +6.5pp · implied 30.3%

LAD

no live price

Book	PHI	LAD	Best edge
DraftKings	+210★	-287	+6.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

LAD vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.8± 3.4low
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.2± 2.9low
Emmet SheehanLAD
5.9± 3.5low

Hits

Andy PagesLAD
1.1± 1.3high
Freddie FreemanLAD
1.1± 0.8high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Freddie FreemanLAD
2.4± 2.5high
Andy PagesLAD
2.3± 2.9high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.2± 2.0high

RBIs

Andy PagesLAD
0.9± 1.0high
Mookie BettsLAD
0.7± 1.6high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
0.7± 0.5high

Earned runs

Eric LauerLAD
3.1± 2.8low
Andrew PainterPHI
3.0± 3.0low
Emmet SheehanLAD
2.7± 1.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelEdge

● Live

PHI

Phillies

37-33

vs63.2%LAD

LAD★

Dodgers

41-25

PHI 36.8%win prob63.2% LAD

LAD 1588 · PHI 1528Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting
K. Schwarber★DH	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
SPRINT25.818
T. Turner★SS	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT29.798
B. Harper★1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Marsh★LF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
A. Bohm★3B	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT26.632
B. Stott★2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J.T. Realmuto★C	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Garcia★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Crawford★CF	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT29.798
R. MarchanC	1-1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT26.225
Team	4-16	16	0	4	0	0	1	7

Batting

Player

0-2

1-2

0-2

0-1

1-2

0-2

0-0

0-2

1-2

1-1

Team

4-16

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching
A. Painter★SP	3.1	7	4	4	1	3	2
T. BanksRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	4.0	7	4	4	1	3	2

Pitching

Player

A. Painter★SP

3.1

T. BanksRP

0.2

Team

4.0

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting
S. Ohtani★DH	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. Pages★CF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
F. Freeman★1B	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT24.74
M. Betts★SS	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
K. Tucker★RF	1-2	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
SPRINT26.123
M. Muncy★3B	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT27.354
R. Ward★LF	1-2	2	1	1	1	1	0	1
D. Rushing★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Freeland★2B	2-2	2	1	2	2	1	0	0
SPRINT26.941
Team	7-19	19	4	7	4	2	1	3

Batting

Player