Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYM at LAA?

The model favors LAA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

New York Mets vs Los Angeles Angels: Final Score & Box Score — May 2, 2026

FINAL+1LAA

NYM

11-22

LAA

13-21

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California

42,788 attended

Line movement

113 snapshots

LAA spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 8.0 · -0.5

LAA no-vig %

47.4%

open 44.9% · +2.5

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.5%

ensemble · LAA favored

Elo Static
50.6%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
50.3%
P(LAA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.6%
P(LAA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.56 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.50

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+113

Close price

+102

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

47.4%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYM at LAA?: The model favors LAA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

LAA vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Reid DetmersLAA
6.7± 3.8medium
Nolan McLeanNYM
6.1± 2.1medium
Jose SorianoLAA
5.7± 1.8medium

Hits

Bo BichetteNYM
1.4± 1.1high
Juan SotoNYM
1.4± 0.8high
Denzer GuzmanLAA
1.2± 0.9low

Total bases

Juan SotoNYM
2.7± 2.6high
Bo BichetteNYM
2.3± 2.4high
Denzer GuzmanLAA
2.2± 2.1low

RBIs

Denzer GuzmanLAA
1.0± 1.7low
Donovan WaltonLAA
0.8± 1.1high
Bo BichetteNYM
0.8± 1.9high

Earned runs

Kodai SengaNYM
4.0± 2.8low
Ryan JohnsonLAA
3.8± 3.2low
Freddy PeraltaNYM
3.1± 3.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYM

league avg

LAA

.669

OPS

.719

▶

.721

.297

OBP

.319

▶

.320

4.04

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.57

4.08

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.64

1.28

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.42

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAA wins

NYM 3 · LAA 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAA +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R
NYM	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	3
LAA	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. Bichette3B	.237	5	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. SotoLF	.338	4	0	1	0	0	1	2
F. AlvarezC	.226	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. Vientos1B	.238	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
M. Semien2B	.220	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
A. Ibanez2B	.000	2	0	0	1	0	0	1
T. TaylorCF	.214	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
A. SlaterRF	.429	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
R. MauricioSS	.219	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
C. BengeRF	.179	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. MelendezDH	.313	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Baty3B	.207	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	3	9	3	0	1	12

Player

.237

.338

.226

.238

.220

.000

.214

.429

.219

.179

.313

.207

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. McLeanSP	4.0	6	3	3	1	6	78
T. MyersRP	2.2	3	0	0	1	0	36
H. BrazobanRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	18
C. KimbrelRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	12
A. WarrenRP	0.2	2	1	0	1	0	20
Team	9.2	12	4	3	4	8	164

Player

4.0

2.2

1.1

1.0

0.2

Team

9.2

164

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. NetoSS	.221	4	0	0	0	0	1	3
M. TroutCF	.256	4	0	2	0	0	1	2
N. Schanuel1B	.240	5	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. SolerDH	.239	3	1	1	0	0	2	1
J. AdellRF	.268	5	1	3	1	0	0	0
J. LoweLF	.167	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
V. Grissom2B	.318	5	0	1	2	0	0	0
O. Peraza2B	.295	5	0	3	1	0	0	0
T. d'ArnaudC	.133	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Frazier2B	.255	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Y. Moncada3B	.184	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. TeodosioLF	.242	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. RiveroC	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		40	4	12	4	0	4	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. DetmersSP	6.1	9	3	3	0	8	95
S. BachmanRP	1.2	0	0	0	0	3	18
R. ZeferjahnRP	2.0	0	0	0	1	1	23
Team	10.0	9	3	3	1	12	136

Team

NYM

LAA

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

LAA vs NYM.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

LAA vs NYM.

3 sub-models, blended.