MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2SD

17-8

108

COL

10-16

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado

25,973 attended

Line movement

34 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 10.5

open O/U 10.5

COL no-vig %

41.7%

open 41.7%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.1%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
35.1%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
39.1%
P(COL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
36.6%
P(COL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.64 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-156

Close price

-156

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

COL vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

Michael KingSD
5.2± 2.9low
Griffin CanningSD
4.7± 2.3low
Yu DarvishSD
4.5± 2.0medium

Hits

Troy JohnstonCOL
1.3± 1.0high
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.3± 1.4high
Jake McCarthyCOL
1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

Cole CarriggCOL
2.7± 3.4low
Hunter GoodmanCOL
2.3± 2.1high
Jake McCarthyCOL
2.0± 2.2high

RBIs

Samad TaylorSD
1.0± 1.6low
Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.8± 1.1high
Jake McCarthyCOL
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
4.1± 3.5low
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.9± 2.8medium
Griffin CanningSD
3.3± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

COL

.652

OPS

.715

▶

.715

.292

OBP

.319

▶

.319

3.79

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.30

3.96

Team ERA

◀

4.17

5.56

1.29

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.51

8.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SD 10 · COL 8 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SD +15pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SD	0	2	0	1	1	0	0	1	5	10
COL	1	4	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	8

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
R. LaureanoLF	.264	6	0	3	2	0	0	1
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.250	5	0	1	0	0	0	3
J. MerrillCF	.211	3	1	0	0	0	1	3
M. Machado3B	.195	5	2	2	0	0	0	1
X. BogaertsSS	.289	3	3	2	2	1	2	0
M. AndujarDH	.316	5	0	2	3	0	0	2
T. France1B	.233	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
F. FerminC	.175	4	1	0	0	0	1	2
J. Cronenworth2B	.167	4	1	2	0	0	1	1
B. JohnsonRF	.250	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
G. Sheets1B	.227	2	1	1	3	1	0	0
Team		40	10	13	10	2	5	13

Player

AVG

RBI

.264

.250

.211

.195

.289

.316

.233

.175

.167

.250

.227

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
M. WaldronSP	5.0	8	6	6	3	3	82
A. MorejonRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	14
R. MarinaccioRP	2.0	4	1	1	0	0	30
M. MillerRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	7
Team	9.0	14	8	8	3	4	133

Player

5.0

1.0

2.0

1.0

Team

9.0

133

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
E. Julien2B	.273	5	2	2	1	0	0	2
M. MoniakLF	.324	5	3	4	2	2	0	1
T. Rumfield1B	.264	4	1	2	2	0	1	0
W. Castro2B	.246	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
T. JohnstonRF	.325	4	0	3	2	0	1	0
E. TovarSS	.204	5	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. SullivanC	.243	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. Karros3B	.200	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. McCarthyCF	.234	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
T. FreemanRF	.293	2	1	1	1	0	0	0
B. DoyleCF	.214	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		38	8	14	8	2	3	4

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
R. FeltnerSP	2.0	2	2	2	1	3	40
Z. AgnosRP	3.0	4	2	2	1	3	67
S. HalvorsenRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	19
J. MejiaRP	1.2	3	1	1	1	3	45
V. VodnikRP	0.2	4	5	5	1	2	22
B. BernardinoRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	6
Team	9.0	13	10	10	5	13	199

Team

COL

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

COL vs SD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

COL vs SD.

3 sub-models, blended.