HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 11
  • MLBTop 7
    ARI 2@CIN 2
    -7.3pppeak
  • MLBEnd 6
    NYY 5@TOR 7
    +61.7pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    STL 3@MIN 1
    -39.7pplow
  • MLBMid 8
    SD 3@BAL 7
    +50.3pplow
  • MLBEnd 3
    ATL 2@NYM 6
    +57.1pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBBot 2
    SEA 5@WSH 0
    -47.1pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    TEX 1@BOS 7
    +51.9pplow
  • MLBBot 6
    LAD 2@CHW 8
    +53.3pplow
  • MLBBot 8
    PHI 0@MIL 6
    +40.0pplow
  • WNBA50.5 - 4th
    TOR 80@WSH 83
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+1SD
SD

SD

16-7

1
0
COL

COL

9-15

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado
15,672 attended

Line movement

31 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 11.0

open O/U 11.0

COL no-vig %

42.8%

open 42.8%

+2.0+1.0COL SPREADO/U 11.5O/U 10.5TOTAL46.8%38.8%COL NO-VIG %May 2, 9 AMJun 12, 9 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SD

SD

league avg

COL

COL

.652

OPS

.715

▶

.715

.292

OBP

.319

▶

.319

3.79

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.30

3.96

Team ERA

◀

4.17

5.56

1.29

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.51

8.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SD 1 · COL 0 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SD +16pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SD0000010001
COL0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

67%Last 7 · 65-32
61%Last 30 · 303-190
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-149

Close price

-149

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Tue, Apr 21·Final/SeriesSD wins series 2-1/VegasSD -149

Recap · MLB

San Diego Padres went into Colorado Rockies and beat them, 1–0. It came down to the final possession.

COL +1.5 cashed (SD won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 11.0 by 10.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1R. VasquezSD+24.5pp
  2. 2F. Tatis Jr.SD+20.3pp
  3. 3J. CronenworthSD+19.4pp

SD · top performer

SD
Fernando Tatis Jr.

Fernando Tatis Jr.

RF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

COL · top performer

COL
Edouard Julien

Edouard Julien

2B

0.500OPS

4-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
R. LaureanoLF
.2594000003
F. Tatis Jr.RF
.2654020002
J. MerrillCF
.2133000003
M. Machado3B
.1783001011
X. BogaertsSS
.2654010002
G. Sheets1B
.2323000001
M. AndujarDH
.3084010001
F. FerminC
.1943010000
J. Cronenworth2B
.1554110001
- N. CastellanosRF
.1591000001
- T. France1B
.2590000000
Team331610115

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
R. VasquezSP
7.03000584
J. AdamRP
1.00000112
A. MorejonRP
1.0000028
Team9.030008104

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
E. Julien2B
.2594010002
M. MoniakLF
.2714010001
H. GoodmanC
.2414010001
T. Rumfield1B
.2443000001
T. JohnstonRF
.3043000000
E. TovarSS
.2182000000
K. Karros3B
.2063000000
J. BeckLF
.1673000001
B. DoyleCF
.2092000002
- W. Castro2B
.2311000000
Team29030008

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
J. HergetRP
1.00000314
C. DollanderSP
6.031119102
J. MejiaRP
1.01000120
B. BernardinoRP
1.02000221
Team9.0611115157

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

3

1

Runs

0

0

Errors

1

Current series

SD wins series 2-1

Apr 22SDSD1@COLCOL0today
Apr 23SDSD3@COLCOL8
Apr 23SDSD10@COLCOL8

Season series

SD leads series 5-0

Apr 10COLCOL3@SDSD7
Apr 11COLCOL2@SDSD5
Apr 12COLCOL5@SDSD9
Apr 12COLCOL2@SDSD7
Apr 22SDSD1@COLCOL0today
Apr 23SDSD3@COLCOL8
Apr 23SDSD10@COLCOL8
Jul 29COLCOL@SDSDupcoming
Jul 29COLCOL@SDSDupcoming
Sep 15SDSD@COLCOLupcoming
Sep 16SDSD@COLCOLupcoming
Sep 17SDSD@COLCOLupcoming
Sep 17SDSD@COLCOLupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SD -1.5

Total

11.0

High-scoring · +2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SDSD-14960%
COLCOL+12345%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SD -1.5↗SpreadBet SD -1.5↗

Line movement · 31 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

11.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSD ↔ COL

Biggest swing: 14pp · Top 6th Inning

SDSD
F. Tatis Jr.

F. Tatis Jr.

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

R. Vasquez

R. Vasquez

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 3 H

COLCOL
E. Julien

E. Julien

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 0.500 OPS

C. Dollander

C. Dollander

SP

Top relieverQuality start

6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

SD beat COL 1-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

COL vs SD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SDTop 6th Inning · 0-0
+7pp→ 56% WP

Cronenworth · doubled to right.

SDTop 6th Inning · 1-0
+14pp→ 70% WP

Machado · walked, Cronenworth scored, Merrill to second, Tatis Jr. to third.

SDBottom 9th Inning · 1-0
+7pp→ 94% WP

Moniak · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SD0000010001
COL0000000000

Period scoring

SD won 1 · COL won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Machado 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

SD
COL

Play-by-play · 511 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    SD 1·COL 0

  2. B9

    ·

    SD 1·COL 0

  3. B9

    Goodman flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    SD 1·COL 0

    −6pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 1·COL 0

  5. B9

    Adrian Morejon pitches to Hunter Goodman

    ·

    SD 1·COL 0

  6. B9

    ·

    SD 1·COL 0

  7. B9

    Moniak struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    SD 1·COL 0

    −7pp

  8. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SD 1·COL 0

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SD 1·COL 0

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SD 1·COL 0

  11. B9

    Adrian Morejon pitches to Mickey Moniak

    ·

    SD 1·COL 0

  12. B9

    ·

    SD 1·COL 0

  13. B9

    Julien struck out swinging.

    ·

    SD 1·COL 0

    −5pp

  14. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SD 1·COL 0

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 1·COL 0

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    SD 1·COL 0

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SD 1·COL 0

  18. B9

    Adrian Morejon pitches to Edouard Julien

    ·

    SD 1·COL 0

  19. B9

    Morejon relieved Adam

    ·

    SD 1·COL 0

  20. B9

    France at first base.

    SD 1·COL 0

  21. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    SD 1·COL 0

  22. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    SD 1·COL 0

  23. T9

    · ·

    SD 1·COL 0

  24. T9

    Cronenworth struck out looking.

    · ·

    SD 1·COL 0

  25. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    SD 1·COL 0

  26. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    SD 1·COL 0

  27. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul

    · ·

    SD 1·COL 0

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SD 1·COL 0

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SD 1·COL 0

  30. T9

    Brennan Bernardino pitches to Jake Cronenworth

    · ·

    SD 1·COL 0

Team stats

SD

Away

Stat

COL

Home

1

Runs

0

6

Hits

3

0

Errors

1

8

TB

3

0

HR

0

1

BB

0

15

K

8

11

LOB

8

Betting line

SD -1.5·O/U 11·SD -149/COL +123

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Jordan BeckCOL · LF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Ramon LaureanoSD · LF
    SPRINT2872
  • Mickey MoniakCOL · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

COL vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Michael KingSD
    5.2± 2.9low
  • Griffin CanningSD
    4.7± 2.3low
  • Yu DarvishSD
    4.5± 2.0medium

Hits

  • Troy JohnstonCOL
    1.3± 1.0high
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Jake McCarthyCOL
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Cole CarriggCOL
    2.7± 3.4low
  • Hunter GoodmanCOL
    2.3± 2.1high
  • Jake McCarthyCOL
    2.0± 2.2high

RBIs

  • Samad TaylorSD
    1.0± 1.6low
  • Hunter GoodmanCOL
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Jake McCarthyCOL
    0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Kyle FreelandCOL
    4.1± 3.5low
  • Michael LorenzenCOL
    3.9± 2.8medium
  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.3± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

36.7%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    34.1%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    32.4%

    P(COL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    35.6%

    P(COL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.31 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.