MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4CLE

BAL

10-12

CLE

13-10

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

17,408 attended

Line movement

18 snapshots

CLE spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 6.5

open O/U 6.5

CLE no-vig %

52.2%

open 52.2%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.3%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
59.2%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
61.1%
P(CLE win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.4%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.13 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-120

Close price

-120

Open no-vig

52.2%

Close no-vig

52.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

CLE vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.0± 3.5low
Parker MessickCLE
5.8± 2.3low
Kyle BradishBAL
5.2± 3.1low

Hits

Taylor WardBAL
1.2± 1.1high
Adley RutschmanBAL
1.1± 1.3high
Jose RamirezCLE
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Pete AlonsoBAL
2.1± 2.0high
Jose RamirezCLE
2.0± 2.3high
Adley RutschmanBAL
1.9± 2.9high

RBIs

Adley RutschmanBAL
1.1± 1.6high
Pete AlonsoBAL
0.7± 0.9high
Coby MayoBAL
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Trevor RogersBAL
3.7± 2.4low
Slade CecconiCLE
2.8± 2.5low
Shane BazBAL
2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BAL

league avg

CLE

.727

OPS

◀

.715

.688

.323

OBP

◀

.319

.317

4.76

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.01

4.55

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.80

1.40

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.26

7.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

BAL 4 · CLE 8 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BAL	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	4
CLE	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	2	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
T. WardLF	.295	5	1	2	3	1	0	0
G. HendersonSS	.204	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
P. Alonso1B	.207	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. RodriguezRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. Jackson2B	.303	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
W. Wilson3B	.400	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Mayo3B	.148	3	1	0	0	0	1	2
S. HuffC	.222	4	1	1	0	0	0	3
B. Alexander3B	.213	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. TaverasCF	.359	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. BeaversRF	.212	2	0	0	1	0	0	1
C. CowserRF	.174	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	4	5	4	1	4	12

Player

AVG

RBI

.295

.204

.207

.000

.303

.400

.148

.222

.213

.359

.212

.174

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
T. RogersSP	5.0	6	6	5	2	5	95
T. WellsRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	5	23
C. FosterRP	1.0	2	2	2	2	2	33
Team	8.0	8	8	7	4	12	151

Player

T. RogersSP

5.0

T. WellsRP

2.0

C. FosterRP

1.0

Team

8.0

151

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
S. KwanCF	.230	4	0	0	1	0	0	1
A. MartinezLF	.262	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Ramirez3B	.229	4	2	2	2	2	0	2
R. Hoskins1B	.192	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
D. FryRF	.241	3	2	2	0	0	1	1
D. SchneemannCF	.302	2	1	0	0	0	2	1
J. Brito2B	.184	4	1	1	2	0	0	3
A. HedgesC	.250	4	1	0	0	0	0	2
B. RocchioSS	.254	4	0	3	3	0	0	1
Team		32	8	8	8	2	4	12

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. CantilloSP	4.2	5	4	3	3	6	89
M. FestaRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	9
P. PalletteRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	2	30
E. SabrowskiRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	17
S. ArmstrongRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
Team	9.0	5	4	3	4	12	156

Team

BAL

CLE

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

CLE vs BAL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CLE vs BAL.

3 sub-models, blended.