MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2MIL

MIL

8-2

BOS

2-8

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts

35,107 attended

Line movement

12 snapshots

BOS spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

BOS no-vig %

46.8%

open 46.8%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.4%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
47.6%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
44.3%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
45.9%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.34 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BOS vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
8.8± 2.6low
Kyle HarrisonMIL
6.3± 5.5low
Payton TolleBOS
6.0± 3.9low

Hits

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.5± 1.2high
Andrew VaughnMIL
1.4± 1.4high
Christian YelichMIL
1.4± 1.0high

Total bases

Jackson ChourioMIL
2.9± 2.7high
Brice TurangMIL
2.2± 2.5high
Andrew VaughnMIL
2.1± 2.8high

RBIs

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.0± 1.4high
Jake BauersMIL
1.0± 1.4high
Brice TurangMIL
0.9± 1.2high

Earned runs

Robert GasserMIL
3.3± 3.0low
Jake BennettBOS
3.0± 2.3low
Brandon SproatMIL
2.7± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIL

league avg

BOS

.728

OPS

◀

.715

.692

.340

OBP

◀

.319

.313

5.28

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.91

3.44

Team ERA

◀

4.17

3.91

1.21

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.29

9.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

MIL 8 · BOS 6 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIL	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	2	1	8
BOS	1	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	1	6

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
B. Turang2B	.270	4	2	0	1	0	2	0
W. ContrerasC	.294	4	1	1	1	0	1	1
C. YelichDH	.395	4	1	3	1	0	1	1
G. MitchellCF	.333	5	0	2	2	0	0	3
J. Bauers1B	.206	4	0	0	1	0	1	1
L. Rengifo3B	.214	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
S. FrelickRF	.233	4	1	2	1	0	1	1
D. HamiltonSS	.263	2	2	1	0	0	2	0
B. PerkinsCF	.143	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
Team		36	8	11	7	0	8	11

Player

AVG

RBI

.270

.294

.395

.333

.206

.214

.233

.263

.143

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
B. WoodruffSP	5.2	8	5	5	2	4	94
A. AshbyRP	1.1	1	0	0	1	0	23
G. AndersonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	15
A. ZerpaRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	16
Team	9.0	11	6	6	3	4	148

Player

5.2

1.1

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

148

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
R. AnthonyLF	.256	5	2	2	0	0	0	0
M. YoshidaDH	.250	3	1	1	0	0	2	0
W. Contreras1B	.235	3	1	3	2	1	1	0
W. AbreuRF	.400	5	0	1	1	0	0	2
T. StorySS	.130	4	0	1	2	0	0	0
M. Mayer2B	.185	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Durbin3B	.125	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
C. NarvaezC	.273	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. RafaelaCF	.276	4	1	1	1	0	0	1
A. MonasterioSS	.125	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	6	11	6	1	3	4

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
B. BelloSP	3.1	5	4	3	4	5	86
D. CoulombeRP	0.2	2	0	0	1	0	23
J. MoranRP	3.0	1	1	1	1	4	45
G. WhitlockRP	1.0	1	2	1	2	2	27
R. WatsonRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	10
Team	9.0	11	8	6	8	11	191

Team

MIL

BOS

3 sub-models, blended.

BOS vs MIL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BOS vs MIL.

3 sub-models, blended.