MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2CIN

CIN

7-3

MIA

6-4

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida

10,934 attended

Line movement

13 snapshots

MIA spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

MIA no-vig %

57.2%

open 57.2%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.5%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
52.9%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.4%
P(MIA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.7%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.75 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+123

Close price

+123

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

MIA vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
6.9± 3.1low
Max MeyerMIA
6.4± 1.9low
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
4.3± 2.3low

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.6± 1.1high
Blake DunnCIN
1.2± 0.9high
JJ BledayCIN
1.0± 0.6high

Total bases

Otto LopezMIA
2.3± 2.0high
JJ BledayCIN
1.9± 1.6high
Blake DunnCIN
1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

Kyle StowersMIA
0.7± 1.1high
JJ BledayCIN
0.6± 0.7high
Sal StewartCIN
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Nick LodoloCIN
3.3± 1.8low
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.3± 3.6low
Chris PaddackCIN
3.2± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CIN

league avg

MIA

.708

OPS

.715

.707

.314

OBP

.319

▶

.324

4.24

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.34

4.77

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.11

1.47

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.25

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

CIN 2 · MIA 0 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIA +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CIN	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	2
MIA	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
T. FriedlCF	.147	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
M. McLain2B	.216	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
E. De La CruzSS	.268	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
S. Stewart1B	.353	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
E. SuarezDH	.211	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. SteerLF	.188	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. BensonRF	.238	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. StephensonC	.167	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
K. Hayes3B	.115	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. MyersCF	.267	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		32	2	7	2	1	2	4

Player

AVG

RBI

.147

.216

.268

.353

.211

.188

.238

.167

.115

.267

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
B. WilliamsonSP	6.2	3	0	0	1	4	93
B. BurkeRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	6
T. SantillanRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	15
E. PaganRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13
Team	9.0	3	0	0	2	6	127

Player

6.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

127

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
A. SlaterRF	.133	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. RamirezC	.233	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
J. MarseeCF	.105	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
O. LopezSS	.351	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
H. HernandezLF	.111	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Norby1B	.148	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
X. Edwards2B	.432	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. Jimenez3B	.286	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Sanoja3B	.375	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
O. CaissieRF	.296	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
L. HicksC	.320	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	0	3	0	0	2	6

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. JunkSP	7.1	7	2	2	1	3	87
T. PhillipsRP	1.2	0	0	0	1	1	23
Team	9.0	7	2	2	2	4	110

Team

CIN

MIA

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

MIA vs CIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIA vs CIN.

3 sub-models, blended.