MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2SEA

SEA

4-4

LAA

3-5

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California

44,931 attended

Line movement

15 snapshots

LAA spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

LAA no-vig %

41.6%

open 41.6%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

40.9%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
42.8%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
43.1%
P(LAA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
42.7%
P(LAA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.17 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAA vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

117

projections · 63 high confidence

Strikeouts

Reid DetmersLAA
7.0± 4.0low
Jose SorianoLAA
5.8± 2.5low
Bryan WooSEA
5.8± 4.0low

Hits

Wade MecklerLAA
1.1± 1.4medium
Cole YoungSEA
1.1± 0.8high
Jhonny PeredaSEA
1.1± 0.7medium

Total bases

Wade MecklerLAA
1.9± 2.3medium
Zach NetoLAA
1.9± 1.8high
Colt EmersonSEA
1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

Jose SiriLAA
0.8± 1.5medium
Wade MecklerLAA
0.8± 1.6medium
Trey ManciniLAA
0.7± 0.8low

Earned runs

Grayson RodriguezLAA
4.2± 3.8low
Bryan WooSEA
3.1± 3.9low
George KirbySEA
2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SEA

league avg

LAA

.718

OPS

◀

.715

.701

.318

OBP

.319

.315

4.25

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.46

3.59

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.68

1.20

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.44

8.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

SEA 3 · LAA 1 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R
SEA	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	3
LAA	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
R. RefsnyderDH	.000	3	0	0	0	0	2	0
C. RaleighC	.138	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. RodriguezCF	.100	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
J. Naylor1B	.094	5	0	2	2	0	0	0
R. ArozarenaLF	.286	4	0	2	0	0	1	0
B. Donovan3B	.370	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J.P. CrawfordSS	.000	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
V. RoblesRF	.231	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. Young2B	.310	4	1	1	1	0	0	2
L. Rivas3B	.160	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. RaleyRF	.263	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	3	7	3	0	6	7

Player

AVG

RBI

.000

.138

.100

.094

.286

.370

.000

.231

.310

.160

.263

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
B. WooSP	7.0	1	0	0	1	6	87
M. BrashRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	12
A. MunozRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	16
G. SpeierRP	1.0	0	1	0	0	1	12
Team	10.0	1	1	0	1	12	127

Player

7.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

10.0

127

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
Z. NetoSS	.200	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. TroutCF	.240	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
N. Schanuel1B	.241	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. SolerDH	.133	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
Y. Moncada3B	.120	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. AdellRF	.233	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. LoweLF	.083	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. O'HoppeC	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
O. Peraza2B	.292	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
Team		29	1	1	1	0	1	12

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
R. DetmersSP	6.2	3	0	0	4	4	104
C. SilsethRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	5
D. PomeranzRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	17
J. RomanoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	16
B. SuterRP	1.0	3	3	2	1	0	26
Team	10.0	7	3	2	6	7	168

Team

SEA

LAA

3 sub-models, blended.

LAA vs SEA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

LAA vs SEA.

3 sub-models, blended.