MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2CLE

CLE

1-0

SEA

0-1

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington

44,938 attended

Line movement

11 snapshots

SEA spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 6.5

open O/U 6.5

SEA no-vig %

62.2%

open 62.2%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SEA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.5%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
54.6%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
55.2%
P(SEA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.9%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.24 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+153

Close price

+153

Open no-vig

37.8%

Close no-vig

37.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

SEA vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.0± 3.5low
Parker MessickCLE
5.8± 2.3low
Bryan WooSEA
5.8± 4.0low

Hits

Jose RamirezCLE
1.1± 1.1high
Cole YoungSEA
1.1± 0.8high
Jhonny PeredaSEA
1.1± 0.7medium

Total bases

Jose RamirezCLE
2.0± 2.3high
Colt EmersonSEA
1.8± 1.8high
Dominic CanzoneSEA
1.7± 2.3high

RBIs

Josh NaylorSEA
0.6± 1.3high
Randy ArozarenaSEA
0.6± 1.1high
Angel MartinezCLE
0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

Bryan WooSEA
3.1± 3.9low
Slade CecconiCLE
2.8± 2.5low
George KirbySEA
2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CLE

league avg

SEA

.689

OPS

.715

▶

.718

.317

OBP

.319

.318

4.03

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.25

3.79

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.59

1.26

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.20

9.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

CLE 6 · SEA 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SEA +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CLE	1	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	1	6
SEA	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
S. KwanCF	.000	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. DeLauterRF	.600	5	3	3	2	2	0	1
J. Ramirez3B	.200	5	0	1	2	0	0	2
K. Manzardo1B	.250	4	0	1	0	0	1	1
B. NaylorC	.000	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Hoskins1B	1.000	3	1	3	0	0	1	0
D. SchneemannCF	.500	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
G. AriasSS	.250	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. RocchioSS	.667	3	1	2	2	0	0	1
A. MartinezLF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		38	6	12	6	2	2	11

Player

AVG

RBI

.000

.600

.200

.250

.000

1.000

.500

.250

.667

.000

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
T. BibeeSP	5.0	4	3	3	2	7	78
C. BrogdonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16
S. ArmstrongRP	0.2	1	1	1	0	2	10
E. SabrowskiRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	3	16
C. SmithRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
Team	9.0	6	4	4	2	14	133

Player

5.0

1.0

0.2

1.1

1.0

Team

9.0

133

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
B. Donovan3B	.500	4	1	2	1	1	0	1
C. RaleighC	.000	3	0	0	0	0	1	3
J. RodriguezCF	.000	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. Naylor1B	.000	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. ArozarenaLF	.250	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. RaleyRF	.250	4	1	1	1	1	0	2
D. CanzoneDH	.500	4	2	2	2	2	0	0
C. Young2B	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
L. Rivas3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
Team		32	4	6	4	4	2	14

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
L. GilbertSP	5.1	5	3	3	0	7	86
J. FerrerRP	0.2	2	0	0	0	0	11
G. SpeierRP	1.0	3	2	2	0	1	20
C. LeguminaRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	29
C. CriswellRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	17
Team	9.0	12	6	6	2	11	163

Team

CLE

SEA

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

SEA vs CLE.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

SEA vs CLE.

3 sub-models, blended.