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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1CLE
CLE

CLE

72-70

2
1
TB

TB

71-72

George M. Steinbrenner Field · Tampa, Florida
8,155 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

CLE 2 · TB 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TB +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CLE0000020002
TB0000100001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 68-47
62%Last 30 · 331-206
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 10, 25sim 98
    231
    1(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 9, 25sim 96
    232
    1(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 96
    210
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 9, 25sim 96
    70
    5(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 6, 25sim 95
    53
    30(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 11, 25sim 95
    172
    25(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Sep 7·Final/SeriesCLE wins series 3-1

Recap · MLB

Cleveland Guardians went into Tampa Bay Rays and beat them, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CLE · top performer

CLE
Angel Martinez

Angel Martinez

LF

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

TB · top performer

TB
Carson Williams

Carson Williams

SS

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CLE72-70
2
1
TB71-72
CLE72-70·TB71-72
CLE

CLE

72-70

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
1-44010010
SPRINT26.530
G. ValeraG. Valera★LF
1-22010001
SPRINT25.513
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
1-44011000
SPRINT27.251
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
1-33010002
N. JonesN. Jones★RF
0-22000000
D. SchneemannD. Schneemann★CF
0-44000001
G. AriasG. Arias★SS
1-33011010
SPRINT26.530
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
0-22000020
A. HedgesA. Hedges★C
0-44000002
A. MartinezA. MartinezLF
2-33120000
SPRINT27.765
J. NoelJ. NoelRF
0-11100001
Team7-3232272057
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. MessickP. Messick★SP
6.0811041
M. FestaM. FestaRP
0.2100020
H. GaddisH. GaddisRP
1.1000010
C. SmithC. SmithRP
1.0000030
Team9.09110101
TB

TB

71-72

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
1-44010001
SPRINT29.496
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
1-44010000
SPRINT25.716
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
1-44010000
SPRINT25.716
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
2-44020001
SPRINT27.148
C. MorelC. Morel★1B
1-44010000
E. PereiraE. Pereira★RF
1-44010002
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
0-44000002
N. FortesN. Fortes★C
1-22010001
C. WilliamsC. Williams★SS
1-33111101
R. PalaciosR. Palacios2B
0-11000001
H. FeducciaH. FeducciaC
0-11000001
Team9-35351911010
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. RasmussenD. Rasmussen★SP
5.0300320
G. CleavingerG. CleavingerRP
0.2222110
K. KellyK. KellyRP
0.1100000
G. JaxG. JaxRP
1.0100010
M. MontgomeryM. MontgomeryRP
1.0000030
E. UcetaE. UcetaRP
1.0000100
Team9.0722570

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CLE

  • P. Messick
    86 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      30%·92.6 mph·27% whiff
    • CH
      26%·84.3 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      26%·90.5 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      12%·76.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Smith
    18 pitches·39% CSW
    • FF
      50%·97.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      33%·87.0 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      17%·86.4 mph·100% whiff
  • M. Festa
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • ST
      41%·83.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      29%·91.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      18%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      12%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Gaddis
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      53%·88.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      33%·94.7 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      13%·81.0 mph·50% whiff

TB

  • D. Rasmussen
    82 pitches·15% CSW
    • FF
      54%·95.6 mph·5% whiff
    • FC
      22%·91.0 mph·22% whiff
    • SI
      15%·95.1 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      4%·80.1 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      4%·84.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      2%·88.7 mph·— whiff
  • E. Uceta
    21 pitches·14% CSW
    • CH
      52%·87.8 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      33%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      14%·88.8 mph·33% whiff
  • G. Cleavinger
    18 pitches·22% CSW
    • SL
      44%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      22%·96.3 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      17%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      17%·81.2 mph·100% whiff
  • G. Jax
    17 pitches·18% CSW
    • CH
      24%·92.5 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      24%·88.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      18%·92.7 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      18%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      18%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Montgomery
    17 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      71%·98.9 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      29%·89.8 mph·100% whiff
  • K. Kelly
    7 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      57%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      43%·91.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

9

2

Runs

1

0

Errors

1

Current series

CLE wins series 3-1

Sep 4CLECLE2@TBTB4
Sep 5CLECLE7@TBTB1
Sep 6CLECLE3@TBTB2
Sep 7CLECLE2@TBTB1today

Season series

CLE wins series 5-2

Aug 25TBTB9@CLECLE0
Aug 26TBTB0@CLECLE3
Aug 27TBTB3@CLECLE4
Sep 4CLECLE2@TBTB4
Sep 5CLECLE7@TBTB1
Sep 6CLECLE3@TBTB2
Sep 7CLECLE2@TBTB1today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCLE ↔ TB

Biggest swing: 24pp · Top 6th Inning

CLECLE
A. Martinez

A. Martinez

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.333 OPS

P. Messick

P. Messick

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 8 H

TBTB
C. Williams

C. Williams

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

D. Rasmussen

D. Rasmussen

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

How it ended

CLE beat TB 2-1. Ram's play in the top 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (24pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

TB vs CLE

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBBottom 5th Inning · 0-1
+14pp→ 79% WP

Williams · homered to left center (409 feet).

CLETop 6th Inning · 1-1
+24pp→ 56% WP

Ram · írez tripled to left, Martínez scored.

CLETop 6th Inning · 2-1
+19pp→ 61% WP

Arias · singled to right, Noel scored, Arias to second, Schneemann to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CLE0000020002
TB0000100001

Period scoring

CLE won 1 · TB won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Williams 1

2
0

Inn 6

Ram 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

CLE
TB

Play-by-play · 573 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CLE 2·TB 1

  2. B9

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 1

  3. B9

    Feduccia struck out swinging.

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 1

    −3pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 1

  9. B9

    Cade Smith pitches to Hunter Feduccia

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 1

  10. B9

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 1

  11. B9

    J. Lowe struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CLE 2·TB 1

    −6pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 1

  19. B9

    Cade Smith pitches to Josh Lowe

    · ·

    CLE 2·TB 1

  20. B9

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 1

  21. B9

    Pereira struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 1

    −8pp

  22. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 1

  25. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 1

  26. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 1

  27. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 1

  28. B9

    Cade Smith pitches to Everson Pereira

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 1

  29. B9

    Smith relieved Gaddis

    ·

    CLE 2·TB 1

  30. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    CLE 2·TB 1

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

TB

Home

2

Runs

1

7

Hits

9

0

Errors

1

9

TB

13

0

HR

1

5

BB

0

7

K

10

22

LOB

12

Player projections

TB vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.1± 2.8low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    2.0± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high
  • Victor Mesa Jr.TB
    0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Tanner BibeeCLE
    2.7± 3.7low
  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.5%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    54.6%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.6%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.2%

    P(TB win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.76 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 13 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496