MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5NYM

82-69

NYM

78-73

Citi Field · Queens, New York

41,819 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

44.1%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
49.5%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.4%
P(NYM win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.8%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.64 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NYM vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nolan McLeanNYM
6.2± 2.8low
Freddy PeraltaNYM
5.5± 3.2low
Christian ScottNYM
5.2± 3.0low

Hits

Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.3± 1.4high
Carson BengeNYM
1.1± 1.5high
A.J. EwingNYM
1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

Carson BengeNYM
2.1± 3.6high
Jared YoungNYM
1.8± 2.1high
Marcus SemienNYM
1.7± 2.4high

RBIs

Samad TaylorSD
1.0± 1.6low
Bo BichetteNYM
0.6± 1.1high
Juan SotoNYM
0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.3± 2.8low
David PetersonNYM
2.6± 3.7low
Freddy PeraltaNYM
2.6± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

NYM

.650

OPS

.715

▶

.664

.291

OBP

.319

.293

3.79

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.04

3.95

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.89

1.29

WHIP

1.31

1.28

8.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

SD 3 · NYM 8 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SD +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SD	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	3
NYM	5	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.262	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. Arraez2B	.286	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. Machado3B	.276	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
G. Sheets1B	.261	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
R. LaureanoLF	.280	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. MerrillCF	.261	4	1	2	1	1	0	1
R. O'HearnRF	.228	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Cronenworth2B	.250	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
F. FerminC	.270	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
Team		33	3	7	3	3	1	6

Player

AVG

RBI

.262

.286

.276

.261

.280

.261

.228

.250

.270

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
M. KingSP	3.0	10	8	8	0	2	57
K. HartRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	5	40
Y. MatsuiRP	1.2	0	0	0	2	2	36
B. RodriguezRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	23
Team	8.0	10	8	8	2	11	156

Player

3.0

2.0

1.2

1.1

Team

8.0

156

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
F. LindorSS	.265	3	2	2	1	1	1	1
J. SotoLF	.262	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
P. Alonso1B	.268	4	2	2	1	1	0	1
B. NimmoRF	.262	4	1	2	1	0	0	2
M. Vientos1B	.237	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. McNeil2B	.255	4	1	1	2	0	0	1
B. Baty3B	.254	3	1	1	2	1	1	2
F. AlvarezC	.255	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. MullinsCF	.190	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
L. AcunaCF	.234	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. SengerC	.181	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	8	10	8	4	2	11

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
C. HolmesSP	4.0	3	2	2	1	2	53
S. ManaeaRP	5.0	4	1	1	0	4	71
Team	9.0	7	3	3	1	6	124

Team

NYM

—

3 sub-models, blended.

NYM vs SD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

NYM vs SD.

3 sub-models, blended.