HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 8
  • MLBBot 3
    COL 0@ATH 0
    +9.9ppmedium
  • MLBTop 3
    CHC 0@SF 0
    -16.7pphigh
  • MLBBot 7
    STL 7@MIN 4
    -43.6pplow
  • MLBBot 7
    ATL 3@NYM 7
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBBot 8
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBTop 5
    TB 0@LAA 4
    +62.6pplow
  • MLBTop 7
    SEA 8@WSH 1
    -47.4pplow
  • WNBA2:55 - 2nd
    GS 33@SEA 32
    +4.1pphigh
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+8SEA
SEA

SEA

74-68

10
2
ATL

ATL

64-78

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
35,700 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SEA

SEA

league avg

ATL

ATL

.717

OPS

.715

▶

.749

.318

OBP

.319

▶

.322

4.30

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.12

3.57

Team ERA

4.16

▶

3.28

1.19

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.17

8.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

SEA 10 · ATL 2 (by 8)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATL +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SEA20000043110
ATL0001010002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

66%Last 7 · 69-36
61%Last 30 · 307-194
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Sep 6·Final/SeriesSEA wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Seattle Mariners went into Atlanta Braves and beat them, 10–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1D. HernandezATL−46.3pp
  2. 2J. RodriguezSEA+31.8pp
  3. 3R. ArozarenaSEA+27.3pp

SEA · top performer

SEA
Julio Rodriguez

Julio Rodriguez

CF

2.400OPS

5-3

AB-H

3

R

4

RBI

ATL · top performer

ATL
Matt Olson

Matt Olson

1B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Seattle Mariners at Atlanta Braves · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
R. ArozarenaLF
.2402210020
C. RaleighC
.2425211112
J. RodriguezCF
.2655334201
J. Naylor1B
.2464113110
E. SuarezDH
.1984121112
J. Polanco1B
.2573110020
J.P. CrawfordSS
.2614011011
V. RoblesRF
.2624010012
L. Rivas3B
.2905000002
- H. FordC
.0001000000
- L. RaleyRF
.2000000000
Team371011105910

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
B. MillerSP
5.15222392
G. SpeierRP
0.2000003
E. BazardoRP
1.0000017
C. FergusonRP
1.01000116
L. JacksonRP
1.00000112
Team9.062226130

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ProfarLF
.2574000000
M. Olson1B
.2704121100
O. Albies2B
.2424000000
D. BaldwinC
.2794110002
H. KimSS
.3334020000
R. Acuna Jr.RF
.2732000021
M. Harris IICF
.2453001000
S. MurphyC
.1994000002
N. Alvarez Jr.SS
.2542010000
- J. FraleyRF
.2781000001
- V. BrujanSS
.2261000000
Team33262126

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
H. WaldrepSP
5.02225591
R. MunozRP
0.10002114
P. JohnsonRP
0.2000016
D. HernandezRP
0.23330016
H. HarrisRP
0.12111020
J. BrebbiaRP
2.04441345
Team9.0111010910192

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SEA

  • B. Miller
    92 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      53%·95.8 mph·23% whiff
    • SI
      22%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      21%·84.1 mph·20% whiff
    • KC
      3%·82.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      1%·84.7 mph·— whiff
  • C. Ferguson
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • FC
      44%·88.0 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      38%·93.2 mph·20% whiff
    • SV
      19%·80.1 mph·— whiff
  • L. Jackson
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·87.7 mph·67% whiff
    • CU
      17%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Bazardo
    7 pitches·57% CSW
    • SI
      71%·95.4 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      29%·82.9 mph·50% whiff
  • G. Speier
    3 pitches·0% CSW
    • FF
      67%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      33%·95.4 mph·0% whiff

ATL

  • H. Waldrep
    91 pitches·25% CSW
    • FS
      37%·86.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      32%·96.3 mph·13% whiff
    • FC
      14%·92.8 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      9%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      8%·81.6 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Brebbia
    45 pitches·29% CSW
    • SL
      49%·84.1 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      47%·92.6 mph·22% whiff
    • CH
      4%·85.9 mph·— whiff
  • H. Harris
    20 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      70%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      25%·81.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      5%·87.0 mph·— whiff
  • D. Hernandez
    16 pitches·13% CSW
    • FF
      56%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      44%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Munoz
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      64%·97.1 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      36%·91.4 mph·50% whiff
  • P. Johnson
    6 pitches·67% CSW
    • CU
      100%·85.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

6

10

Runs

2

1

Errors

0

Current series

SEA wins series 2-1

Sep 5SEASEA1@ATLATL4
Sep 6SEASEA10@ATLATL2today
Sep 7SEASEA18@ATLATL2

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Sep 5SEASEA1@ATLATL4
Sep 6SEASEA10@ATLATL2today
Sep 7SEASEA18@ATLATL2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSEA ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 27pp · Top 7th Inning

SEASEA
J. Rodriguez

J. Rodriguez

CF

Batter of the game2-HR game

3-for-5 · 2 HR · 2.400 OPS

B. Miller

B. Miller

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

ATLATL
M. Olson

M. Olson

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

H. Waldrep

H. Waldrep

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 2 H · 5 BB

How it ended

SEA beat ATL 10-2. Rodr's play in the top 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (27pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

ATL vs SEA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEATop 1st Inning · 2-0
+16pp→ 67% WP

Rodr · íguez homered to left (422 feet), Raleigh scored.

ATLBottom 4th Inning · 2-1
+15pp→ 45% WP

Olson · homered to center (459 feet).

SEATop 7th Inning · 4-2
+27pp→ 79% WP

Rodr · íguez homered to center (441 feet), Arozarena scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SEA20000043110
ATL0001010002

Period scoring

SEA won 4 · ATL won 2

2
0

Inn 1

Rodr 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Olson 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

II 1

4
0

Inn 7

Rodr 2

3
0

Inn 8

Naylor 3

1
0

Inn 9

Raleigh 1

SEA
ATL

Play-by-play · 627 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    SEA 10·ATL 2

  2. B9

    ·

    SEA 10·ATL 2

  3. B9

    Bruján lined out to second.

    ·

    SEA 10·ATL 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 10·ATL 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 10·ATL 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    SEA 10·ATL 2

  7. B9

    Luke Jackson pitches to Vidal Brujan

    ·

    SEA 10·ATL 2

  8. B9

    ·

    SEA 10·ATL 2

  9. B9

    Murphy struck out swinging.

    ·

    SEA 10·ATL 2

  10. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 10·ATL 2

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    SEA 10·ATL 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 10·ATL 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 10·ATL 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SEA 10·ATL 2

  15. B9

    Luke Jackson pitches to Sean Murphy

    ·

    SEA 10·ATL 2

  16. B9

    ·

    SEA 10·ATL 2

  17. B9

    M. Harris II flied out to center.

    · ·

    SEA 10·ATL 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 10·ATL 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    SEA 10·ATL 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 10·ATL 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 10·ATL 2

  22. B9

    Luke Jackson pitches to Michael Harris II

    · ·

    SEA 10·ATL 2

  23. B9

    Jackson relieved Ferguson

    ·

    SEA 10·ATL 2

  24. B9

    Raley in left field.

    SEA 10·ATL 2

  25. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    SEA 10·ATL 2

  26. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    SEA 10·ATL 2

  27. T9

    ·

    SEA 10·ATL 2

  28. T9

    Rodríguez struck out swinging.

    ·

    SEA 10·ATL 2

  29. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 10·ATL 2

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 10·ATL 2

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

10

Runs

2

11

Hits

6

1

Errors

0

28

TB

10

5

HR

1

9

BB

2

10

K

6

25

LOB

11

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 12 players in cohort
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Luke RaleySEA · RF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

ATL vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.4± 2.1low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.1± 3.1low
  • Bryan WooSEA
    5.8± 4.0low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Matt OlsonATL
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Mauricio DubonATL
    1.8± 2.2high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.8± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.0high
  • Mauricio DubonATL
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Michael Harris IIATL
    0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Bryan WooSEA
    3.1± 3.9low
  • George KirbySEA
    2.8± 2.1low
  • JR RitchieATL
    2.6± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.8%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    51.8%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.1%

    P(ATL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.4%

    P(ATL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.65 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.