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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1CIN
CIN

CIN

74-72

2
1
SD

SD

79-67

Petco Park · San Diego, California
40,045 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

CIN 2 · SD 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SD +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CIN0000000202
SD0000100001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

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Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 68-48
62%Last 30 · 331-207
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Sep 10·Final/SeriesCIN wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Cincinnati Reds went into San Diego Padres and beat them, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CIN · top performer

CIN
Miguel Andujar

Miguel Andujar

DH

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

SD · top performer

SD
Fernando Tatis Jr.

Fernando Tatis Jr.

RF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres · final

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Final
CIN74-72
2
1
SD79-67
CIN74-72·SD79-67
CIN

CIN

74-72

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
1-33110020
SPRINT26.838
N. MarteN. Marte★RF
0-55000003
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
1-55111001
SPRINT2872
A. HaysA. Hays★LF
1-33010011
SPRINT27.354
G. LuxG. Lux★LF
0-33000001
S. StewartS. Stewart★1B
0-44000001
T. StephensonT. Stephenson★C
0-44000002
K. HayesK. Hayes★3B
2-33020010
SPRINT26.941
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
1-33010011
M. AndujarM. AndujarDH
1-11011000
SPRINT26.530
Team7-34342720510
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. AbbottA. Abbott★SP
8.0511261
T. SantillanT. SantillanRP
1.0100010
Team9.0611271
SD

SD

79-67

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
2-44121102
SPRINT28.483
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
1-44010001
SPRINT26.632
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
0-44000001
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B
1-33010010
SPRINT26.735
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
1-44010000
SPRINT2872
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
0-44000001
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
0-33000000
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
1-22010010
SPRINT28.891
E. DiazE. Diaz★C
0-33000001
B. JohnsonB. JohnsonRF
0-11000001
Team6-3232161127
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. PivettaN. Pivetta★SP
7.0400180
K. HartK. HartRP
0.2111010
A. MorejonA. MorejonRP
0.2211300
Y. MatsuiY. MatsuiRP
0.2000110
Team9.07225100

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

6

2

Runs

1

0

Errors

1

Current series

CIN wins series 2-1

Sep 9CINCIN3@SDSD4
Sep 10CINCIN4@SDSD2
Sep 11CINCIN2@SDSD1today

Season series

CIN wins series 4-2

Jun 27SDSD1@CINCIN8
Jun 28SDSD6@CINCIN4
Jun 29SDSD2@CINCIN3
Sep 9CINCIN3@SDSD4
Sep 10CINCIN4@SDSD2
Sep 11CINCIN2@SDSD1today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCIN ↔ SD

Biggest swing: 28pp · Top 8th Inning

CINCIN
M. Andujar

M. Andujar

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

A. Abbott

A. Abbott

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

8.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

SDSD
F. Tatis Jr.

F. Tatis Jr.

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

N. Pivetta

N. Pivetta

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 8 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CIN beat SD 2-1. Andujar's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (28pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

SD vs CIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SDBottom 5th Inning · 0-1
+17pp→ 76% WP

Tatis Jr. · homered to left (377 feet).

CINTop 8th Inning · 2-1
+28pp→ 71% WP

Andujar · singled to left, Hays to second, De La Cruz scored on fielding error by left fielder Laureano, Hays to third.

SDBottom 9th Inning · 2-1
+28pp→ 43% WP

Sheets · doubled to left.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CIN0000000202
SD0000100001

Period scoring

CIN won 1 · SD won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Jr. 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

2
0

Inn 8

Cruz 1

0
0

Inn 9

CIN
SD

Play-by-play · 536 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CIN 2·SD 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    CIN 2·SD 1

  3. B9

    Johnson struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CIN 2·SD 1

    −15pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CIN 2·SD 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    CIN 2·SD 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CIN 2·SD 1

  7. B9

    Tony Santillan pitches to Bryce Johnson

    · ·

    CIN 2·SD 1

  8. B9

    Johnson hit for McCoy

    ·

    CIN 2·SD 1

  9. B9

    · ·

    CIN 2·SD 1

  10. B9

    Merrill flied out to center, Iglesias to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CIN 2·SD 1

    −11pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CIN 2·SD 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CIN 2·SD 1

  13. B9

    Tony Santillan pitches to Jackson Merrill

    · ·

    CIN 2·SD 1

  14. B9

    · ·

    CIN 2·SD 1

  15. B9

    Laureano popped out to first.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CIN 2·SD 1

    −17pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CIN 2·SD 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CIN 2·SD 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CIN 2·SD 1

  19. B9

    Tony Santillan pitches to Ramon Laureano

    · ·

    CIN 2·SD 1

  20. B9

    Iglesias ran for Sheets

    ·

    CIN 2·SD 1

  21. B9

    ·

    CIN 2·SD 1

  22. B9

    Sheets doubled to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CIN 2·SD 1

    +28pp

  23. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 2·SD 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    CIN 2·SD 1

  25. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CIN 2·SD 1

  26. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CIN 2·SD 1

  27. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 2·SD 1

  28. B9

    Tony Santillan pitches to Gavin Sheets

    ·

    CIN 2·SD 1

  29. B9

    Santillan relieved Abbott

    ·

    CIN 2·SD 1

  30. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    CIN 2·SD 1

Team stats

CIN

Away

Stat

SD

Home

2

Runs

1

7

Hits

6

0

Errors

1

7

TB

10

0

HR

1

5

BB

2

10

K

7

18

LOB

17

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Noelvi MarteCIN · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Elly De La CruzCIN · SS
    SPRINT2872
  • Will BensonCIN · RF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

SD vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low
  • Griffin CanningSD
    4.8± 2.4low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.3± 1.4high

Total bases

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    2.2± 2.7high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    1.8± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.0%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    55.9%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.9%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.7%

    P(SD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.57 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 24, 25sim 96
    112
    12(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 7, 25sim 95
    52
    30(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 9, 25sim 95
    173
    25(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 23, 25sim 95
    112
    12(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 27, 25sim 95
    301
    17(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 21, 25sim 95
    284
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs